Top Tweets for #DailyFeather
WHEN jobs START disappearing?
A) Hail an @Uber or @lyft
B) Ask driver how supply of new drivers has affected their take-home pay & working hours
C) Ask why they didn't apply for unemployment benefits
D) Circle back please
PS) You'd have read about this in the #DailyFeather🪶
@DiMartinoBooth But still no recession? What happens when the jobs start disappearing?
🇺🇸 Huizenverkopen in de VS zijn ongeveer even laag als in de jaren 2008-2011. Veelzeggend.
Via @DiMartinoBooth
As featured in last Wednesday’s #DailyFeather
January WARN notices ~double vs December to 32,000, led by heavily populous CA, WA, TX, NJ & PA; the 6-month moving average remained >30,000 & this pace of filings is above any level seen in economic expansions over the last 20 years
"The partial government shutdown left… economists without the Dec Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey to snack on. With Friday’s jobs report also delayed…QI turned to its own recipe…to keep the appetite for labor news satisfied…"
https://t.co/XTiWEwYrvM
#dailyfeather
#economy
Fair question posed by @DeutscheBank as to how why private continues to attract fresh funding.
As flagged in today's #DailyFeather rate of data center construction growth has slowed from 85.1% YoY to 18.1% YoY, reminiscent of Fiber Optic wave.
(What's in your research quiver?)
What's in your research quiver? If it's the #DailyFeather you'd know hotels were a material drag on the aberrant CPI shelter print this week.
https://t.co/vdsaRza6Fe
🇺🇸 In de VS zijn prijzen voor hotelkamers nu aan het dalen.
Duidt op een verzwakkende economie en dalende #inflatie.
Via @DiMartinoBooth
As detailed in today’s #DailyFeather
“The SA Freight Shipments index has plumbed under the 1.00 demarcation line. When this gauge has similarly tumbled in past cycles, it has coincided with a broader economic downturn, as was the case in 2001 & 2007-09.”
https://t.co/vdsaRzaEuM
The Cass Shipment Index, the goto benchmark for freight volumes since 1992, has dropped to 2009 levels.
Freight volumes currently match the Great Financial Crisis levels.
Main Street is experiencing a massive recession.
#DailyFeather
What's in your research quiver?
https://t.co/vdsaRzaEuM
🇺🇸 De grote Amerikaanse retailers hebben dit jaar fors minder extra personeel nodig voor de feestdagen.
Via @DiMartinoBooth
To clarify, as detailed in today's #DailyFeather
"The 3-month moving average change in ADP ex-Education & Healthcare averaged -22,000, well below ADP's +3,000 top-line figure."
Without those 'recession-proof' sectors...
WHAT'S IN YOUR RESEARCH QUIVER?
https://t.co/vdsaRza6Fe
@DiMartinoBooth @ChallengerGray So let’s Recap:
- @FreightWaves says trucking volumes are -17%
- $CMG and $DASH saw collapse of middle income buyers
- New Homes built is down -6% YoY
- manufacturing PMI has been sub-50 for 3 years.
- Last 3 months ADP jobs is negative
But people think there is no recession?
Yes -- this was featured in a recent #DailyFeather
@DiMartinoBooth do you know anything about this group?
…nearly 1/2 August’s 0.4% MoM real spending increase came from “Computer software & accessories”which saw 8.0% MoM spike, 3rd largest on record. Net this gain & real PCE’s adjusted 0.2% MoM increase marks a slowdown from June & July’s respective 0.3% & 0.4% prints
#DailyFeather
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index has moved down to 55, a reading below 99% of historical data points going back to 1952.
But at the same time, US Retail Sales grew 4.8% over the last year, outpacing inflation by 1.8%.
We’ve never seen a disconnect this wide between what the US consumer is saying and what they are doing.
Video: https://t.co/v2HbasLN7f
FUNNY you ask...
Median new home prices peak: Oct 2022.
#DailyFeather 8/28/25 @cotality (formerly CoreLogic) existing prices fell 4 months running- a streak seen only 11% historically; current -3.4% 4MA contraction's precedents: 1990-91 recession, post-GFC hangover & 2022-2023.
@jgpuck99 @DiMartinoBooth Home prices are hard to measure. Incentives and buy downs suggest new home prices (a better gauge) peaked in 2023. I am quite sure she had the Longhorns winning their opener as well. Not saying she is never wrong. That would be up to her (otherwise very fortunate) better half.
As #DailyFeather readers also know, though the response rate for Household Survey has also declined from a high of 90.1% in Oct 2013 to July's 67.1%, it is NEVER revised.
The revisions released today pertain to the Establishment Survey, which estimates nonfarm payrolls monthly.
VERY little. Federal employment revised down by -31k.
It's the TIME FRAME - this is in the year ended 3/31/25. Federal severance won't run out until 9/30/25 in most cases.
What's telling, as #DailyFeather readers can attest from this morning, is MOMENTUM carried post-benchmark.
@DiMartinoBooth @HolyGrailEcon I wonder how much of this is impacted by the exodus out of Federal service.
Did you read Thursday's #DailyFeather?
Home sellers wake up! Rents & home prices are falling. Since 1987 @CotalityRES 4-mo losing streaks have stricken 11% of the time. The pandemic aside, -3.4% 4MA contraction has 2 precedents: 1990-91 recession & GFC.
https://t.co/vdsaRzaEuM
…& Poor Sales = Inflation as chief concern for first time since 2021 as detailed in last week’s #DailyFeather
We even tie the shift to markets for investors savvy enough to appreciate the financial landscape constitutes multiple asset classes.
What’s in your research quiver?
🚨Brace for higher US unemployment:
11% of small businesses now see poor sales as their most important problem, the highest share since the 2020 CRISIS.
This is a leading indicator for unemployment and suggests the jobless rate will surpass 5% in the next few months.
Thanks @jack_hoogland for sharing the #DailyFeather
WHY go the extra mile at #QIResearch you ask?
Most conflate 19% of CEOs WILLING to take a margin hit as indicative of magical PRICING POWER to pass higher costs along to customers.
Sins of conflation are common. But not at QI
🇺🇸 Amerikaanse bedrijven leggen hun focus nu vooral op het verhogen van hun productiviteit, het verlagen van inkoopprijzen en het snijden in hun operationele uitgaven.
Dus op het op welke manier dan ook verlagen van hun kosten.
#handelstarieven
Via @DiMartinoBooth
Would you believe we're as entertaining as we are edifying every single trading day of the year? That's why we're dead serious when we ask if you first have your #DailyFeather or a cup of coffee. The effect is identical on the senses.
What's in your cup?
https://t.co/0M6VDf249b
‘The strata of bond yields are too dry to even audition for folklore. Bonds 101 teaches that nominal yields are composed of real yields and inflation expectations”. Well worth the read.
Completely and 100%agree @DiMartinoBooth @m3_melody have been prescient. Must follow their tweets and sub-stack.
Good in theory...
Monday's #DailyFeather
@UMich Upper-Income Consumer Expectations fell by a record 40% last 6 months while cohort's Higher Unemployment Expectations spiked 18 pp points to 72%, highest since Feb 2009. College-educated rose more - to 75%
https://t.co/0M6VDf249b
@Market_heretic @DiMartinoBooth Doesn't the "K-shaped economy" theory counter this point? *Some* people will have low buying power. Others will still have wealth and producers can lower production chasing a smaller consumer segment (stag) while replacing volume with higher margins (flation)
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