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#dailytake (follow along daily)
"You don't get to the 1% by luck, you get there by surviving what broke the other 99%." - Craig Ballantyne
$SPX finished up on Wednesday, +0.56% to 6881, early futures are lower.
On a weekly basis, bull trend is slipping but still in-tact. Watching the weekly 9day-sma as key support, curr. @ 6911, index still just below, 2 days to go to not close the 2nd straight week below. Prev close below was mid-November and did snap back, so far close to repeating, but if can't it would match back to late Feb '25. RSI up to 59, needs +60 to get above lows from late July. MACD continues to weaken, negative divergence now slightly higher from yesterday @ -27, remains a cycle low, and a major red flag below -15. TrendQual (TQ) up to 9.9, just below cycle highs. This is currently marking the 7th consecutive week holding around this level, and the longest stretch since March of '17, which did resolve bullish.
On a daily basis, trend holding neutral, moving close to neutral-bearish but not yet. S&P has shown zero progress since late October. The longer this goes on, the closer the matchup to the Feb-April bear market we get.. Bull case would be a coiled spring breakout. Watching the 50day as support, curr. @ 6895, index closing just below for the 4th day. Trendqual improving to +0.3, still not gaining much traction. MACD remains bearish, negative divergence improved to -11, on 2/25/25 this hit -16. RSI small bounce to 48, needs 53 to take out prev high, so far putting in higher lows for the month. Looking at #thermostochatics, daily trend holding neutral with slight improvement. Weekly holding neutral, still slightly weaker then last week, but similar to August '24. Was also the 2nd neutral turn within a bull cycle, turned back to bullish by early Sept.
#10yrBonds down to 112'26, falling further from resistance @ 113'15. 10yr up 3bps to 4.11%, continues to bounce off week's lows.
#2s10s spread @ +62bps from +61bps prev
#futures -14 @ 6880, off intraday lows post eco-data
$VIX up +2.9% to 20.02, still off highs for year. Watching +22 for trouble.
#technicals #markets #volatility #rates #fanvestments
**Personal views only — not investment advice or solicitation**

#dailytake (follow along daily)
"Everything worthwhile is uphill." - John Maxwell
$SPX closed higher on Tuesday, +0.1% to 6843, early futures trying to stay in the green.
On a weekly basis, bull trend showing issues but still holding in there. Watching the weekly 9day-sma as key support, curr. @ 6907, index curr. just below, needs to retake soon or Feb '25, and Sept '23 bearish matchups get stronger. Prev close below was mid-November and did snap back, so far trying to do the same this week. RSI holding 57, holding just above the lows from mid-November. MACD continues to deteriorate, slope trending lower, negative divergence now @ -29 and a cycle low. Major red flag as -15 in mid-Feb 2025 marked the beginning of a bear market, didn't bottom until -106. TrendQual (TQ) lower to 9.8, losing cycle highs, needs 10.3 to get back above.
On a daily basis, trend down to neutral, moving close to neutral-bearish but not yet. Watching the 50day as support, curr. @ 6895, index is currently below that. SPX has held dead-on to the 100-day for 3 days now. This has to hold, or will just about mirror late Feb '25, where index lost the 50day, then held at the 100 day for... 3 days before breaking down. Trendqual holding just above neutral @ 0.1, watching close to see if this will match more to April '25, or late Feb '25. MACD has downgraded to bearish, negative divergence now @ -13, on 2/25/25 this hit -16, same time as it tried to hold at the 100 day but failed. RSI holding just above 44, low from 2/5 @ 39. Could setup an inverted h&s if can bounce, or lower lows could send it to 35, level from Nov '25. Looking at #thermostochatics, daily trend turning neutral-bearish, just one measure above turning bearish for 1st time since December. Weekly down to neutral, but is matching to mid-cycle of the 23-24 bull market.
#10yrBonds down to 113'02, resistance now @ 113'15. 10yr up a bp to 4.06%, bouncing off yesterdays lows @ 402, hasn't had a 3 handle since 11/28.
#2s10s spread @ +61bps from +63bps prev
#futures +25 @ 6886, intraday highs @ 6903
$VIX down -1.5% to 19.98, so far putting in lower highs. Watching +22 for more trouble.
#technicals #markets #volatility #rates #fanvestments
**Personal views only — not investment advice or solicitation**

#dailytake (follow along daily !!)
"If you need inspiring words, don't do it." - Elon Musk
S&P500 $SPX closed lower Thursday, down -0.28% to 6735, early futures moving higher.
On a weekly basis, bull trend remains intact and will try to close the week at its strongest point since trend began back in early May. Watching the 9-day moving avg. as support, curr. @ 6578. TrendQual holding just below +8, cycle highs, last broke above 8 in 2nd week of June 2024. Back then, ran higher to +10 by mid-July before a small pullback, ran up to 14 mid-Feb '25, before almost a 20% sell-off. RSI continues to trend higher, now at 71, just slightly moving into overbought territory, prev breaking point was up at 78 in mid-July. MACD continues to remain strong.
On a daily basis, bullish trend continues, but seeing some potential cracks. TrendQual holding 21, holding cycle highs and remains 3rd strongest bull-trend in 20 years. Looking way back, in July 1995 TQ peaked @ 34, for its strongest point EVER.. S&P then ran higher ~170% from July '95 to the peak in August 2000. This was after a 90% increase from 1990 - 1995. I know Mr. Jones mentioned October 1999, but as we speak we aren't even close yet ! RSI back down to 66, showing some cracks here, looking back to similar action in Dec '24, which did lead the bears to wake up for a few months. Looking at #thermostochatics, trend holding bullish but has lost max-bull. Weekly has not let up, remaining max-bull since mid-August.
Honey badger watching for any bear raids...
#10yrBonds up to 112'26, trying to break to prev highs above 113. 10yr down 6bps to 4.09%, have been mentioning this head&shoulders pattern here, which has confirmed, looking for 407, 3.98% if breaks.
#2s10s spread @ +53bps from +54bps prev
#futures +9 @ 6788, hovering around intraday highs
$VIX also up, +0.5% @ 16.51, struggling to hold above 17. Continue to watch for a break of prev. highs @ 17.74 from 9/25 for any pivot
#technicals #markets #volatility #rates #fed #fanvestments #FVAM
@elonmusk
@YahooFinance
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#dailytake (follow along daily !!)
"See you on the other side. " - Ozzy Osbourne, rip
S&P500 $SPX closed slightly higher Tuesday, +0.1% @ 6310, early futures moving up. On a weekly basis, bullish trend continues to gain. Watching imm. support @ 6190, lows for July. Some key indicators are hitting some make-or-break levels. RSI holding right at 64, slightly breaking uptrend, needs 65 to make higher-highs, Dec '24 hit 68. TQ working on 9th positive week, now at +4.1. This is exactly where TQ peaked at that July '23 highs, same week as right now, right before the SPX started a 10% sell-off the next week, do or die moment. In Feb '24, TQ also hit 4.2, got up to 6.5 before a 3-week pull back. Still watching 2020 as the closest rhyme right now, which the SPX didn't run into trouble until last week of August, TQ also got up +6. In both cases, SPX finished Nov/Dec really strong.
On a daily basis, trend bullish and holding the strength.
If early futures hold up, all-time-highs will get hit at least at the open. TrendQual up to +12.9 and another cycle high, huge test right now, as this ran up to 24 in late March '24. In July '24, this peaked at 11.2 before a 10% sell-off. RSI holding @ 70, ran up to 76 on 7/1, has been hitting lower highs since early July tho, trouble below 67. Looking at #thermostochatics, trend remains bullish but falling slightly below max-bull. Weekly remains at max bull, has been since late May, and has not budged. In that '23 example, held max-bull until last week of July, neutral by mid-August, max-bear by 1st week of October, back to max-bull 3rd week of Nov. Seeing problems in the last 2 years right around now
Honey Badger feeling a bit of euphoria.. #10yrBonds lower to 111'07, resistance remains @ 111'12. 10yr rates up 3bps to 4.36, held right at support yesterday ~433, can see 423 if breaks
#2s10s spread @ +51bps from +50bps prev #futures +23 @ 6369, intraday highs @ 6375. $VIX down -2.7% @ 16.05, moving towards lows for the month @ 15.50. Watching 17.44 for any pivot, high from 7/8
#technicals #markets #volatility #rates
#fanvestments #FVAM
#crazyTrain
@YahooFinance
@cnbc

#dailytake
S&P500 closed Friday up +1.09% @ 5931, posting a huge intraday reversal off lows @ 5826. Currently day 11 without a new high, last two pullbacks took 11 & 13 days to come back and make a new high, needs to close above 6091. 9-day ma. vs 50 continues lower down to +75, remains bullish (9d>50d, SPX bullish), continues to trend lower, last time crossed below, bearish cross, was in early August (extremes +200). 50-day, @ 5927, vs 100 hitting some resistance, slightly lower to +175, just below extremes/overbought. Price vs 50-day turned back to positive, slightly, @ +.07% (+4 pts). On a weekly basis, trend remains bullish, but showing some cracks. #MACD remains bullish and has been since back in December '23. RSI holding just below 60, watching for any crack below 54, last happened in Sept '23, RSI fell to 38. TrendQual couldn't hold above 14, closing week @ 13.6, slightly lower vs last week, has only broke above 14, 4 times in last 20 years. Watching for any print below 9.8 (prev. high). On a daily basis, trend remains bearish, improving some on Friday. TrendQual had lost bull trend, had a bullish print Friday, watching for continuation there. MACD down to the lows from early Nov. w/bearish divergence at lows from mid-July. RSI bouncing up to 45, after hitting 5-month lows. Looking at #thermostochastics, trend turned max-bull 11/27, started deteriorating 12/9, hit max bear on thursday, w/slight improvement friday. Weekly remains bullish, but has lost max bull. Watching for a re-visit of the honey badger.
#10yrBonds down to 108'27, trying to hold on to lows hit Thursday ~108'46. Watching support @ 108'04 from late May. 10yr higher to 4.55%, resistance 461.
#2s10s spread @ +23bps from +24 prev
#futures -12 @ 5989, intraday highs @ 6035
$VIX up 3.1% @ 18.92, hitting a high Wednesday @ 28.32. Prev 3 highs all around 23.50, all 3 reversed hard, the exception on 8/5, briefly hitting above 65.
$SPX #SP500 $VIX #VIX #Volatility #fear #bonds #technicals #markets #stocks #rates #10yr #futures #2s10s #MACD #RSI #Fed #PCE


Does Magnus think Hans Niemann will ever become world champion? #DailyTake
a. No
b. Yes
c. I don't know

If you've been following along, you should already know what answer Gukesh gave to this question. #DailyTake

@TakeTakeTakeApp @GothamChess C Mixed Martial arts
Day-14 of trying to win Magnus Sign piece ♟️
#DailyTake
What is @GothamChess' favorite sport to watch? #DailyTake
a. Football
b. Poker
c. Mixed Martial Arts

Which opening makes Magnus smile? #DailyTake
a. The London System
b. The Sicilian Defence
c. The King's Gambit


Which chess player does Levy find the most entertaining to watch? #DailyTake
a. Hans Niemann
b. Magnus Carlsen
c. Hikaru Nakamura

Who does Magnus follow for the best chess content? #DailyTake
a. Agadmator, Botez, Firouzja
b. GothamChess, Hikaru, ChessBrahs
c. Botez, Hikaru, GothamChess

Gukesh has played a lot of big names, but who does he reckon the coolest? #DailyTake
a. Magnus Carlsen
b. Vishy Anand
c. Anand Mahindra


#dailytake $SPX #SP500 $VIX #VIX #Volatility #fear #bonds #technicals #markets #stocks #rates #10yr #futures #2s10s #MACD #RSI #stochastics #jobs S&P500 closed Thursday down -1.9% @ 5705, closing just above its 50day by 6 points, 100day down @ 5589. 9-day ma. vs 50 moved lower to +112, continues to trend lower, still bullish (9d>50d, SPX bullish), extremes above 200. 50-day, @ 5699, vs 100 slightly lower to +110, bullish & below extremes. Price vs 50-day down to +0.11%, from previous high around 4.7% hit on 10/15, SPX has moved lower ~3% since. Early futures initially moving higher post jobs data. On a weekly basis, $SPX trend remains bullish, but weakness is increasing. #MACD remains bullish but some bearish divergence within. RSI cont to break down, now @ +59, lows from july & sept @ 54. TrendQual falling to +11.5. Looking for a break above +12 to keep bull going, but currently working on lower highs. Watching for any print below 9.8 (prev. high). On a daily basis, looking at SPX futures, trend has turned bearish, will see if market can hold early gains, could end up back at neutural, either way has been weakening since 10/23. TrendQual has flipped to neutral, curr @ 0.0, ending a bull-trend that started 9/13, will if see if this snaps back, or turns bearish. RSI got crushed, down to 42, trend support of higher-lows ~54 has been broken. Prev lows @ 41 from 9/6, 30 from 8/5. MACD has also been trending lower since 10/22, and hitting worse levels since 7/24, market had trouble until the lows from 8/5. Looking at #thermostochastics, trend turned neutral 10/23, and continues to deteriorate, right on the line of turning bearish. Using SPX futures, TQ has turned bearish, plenty of time for that to improve. Still looking similar to Dec 23, some consolidation, trend turned max bearish for just 2 days, 1/4-1/5, quickly reversed by 1/8 and longer-term bull trend resumed. Weekly remains bullish, lost max-strength but only slightly, from 5 to a 4.8, honey badger vs mega-tech earnings. (maybe saved by Amazon... , #FVAM largest position $AMZN). When the weekly lightens up, if continues this has led to longer bear trends, watching close for that to improve
#10yrBonds small bounce post eco/jobs data, curr up @ 110'27. Lows to watch @ 110'09, below here would look for 109'05, from 7/2, prev high to take out @ 111'14. 10yr down 5bps @ 4.22%, finally cooling off some, hitting highs yest @ 430 . Support @ 421, then 411.
2s10s spread @ +15bps from +12 prev #futures +30 @ 5768, @ intraday highs
$VIX down -5.5%, @ 21.89. Prev highs just below 24, from early sept, early oct, and yesterday.

#DailyTake @DGukesh
a. Cross 2800
b. Overtake Magnus on the ranking list
c. Win the world championship match

How well do you know @GothamChess?
Answer our #DailyTake for a chance to win a signed Magnus chess piece!

@TakeTakeTakeApp @MagnusCarlsen Magnus will definitely go for in 4-5 yrs due to inactive . He is Magnus . He has proved his arrogance with his gameplay . So he deserves to answer this way . #DailyTake
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