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Global oil demand is declining sharply amid rising prices: The IEA has cut its forecast for 2026 global oil demand by -940,000 barrels per day, now expecting consumption to fall -2.5 million barrels per day, the largest annual decline since the 2020 pandemic. This compares with a -1.6 million barrel per day drop expected in August and just a -100,000 barrel per day expected decline in April. To put this into perspective, in January, the IEA saw oil consumption rising by over +700,000 barrels per day in 2026. The downgrade comes as the Iran War disrupts oil supplies and forces consumers to adjust to tighter availability, with the biggest impact expected on diesel and other middle distillates such as jet fuel and heating oil. The negative impact on oil demand this year is expected to be comparable in size to the 4 largest demand shocks over the last 60 years. Oil demand is collapsing as prices surge.