Top Tweets for #IMFNow
🧵on SL's debt, what debt restructuring is - and how we do it.
This is a complicated topic so please ask any question you have, however simple it may seem.
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #SriLankaCrisis #IMFNow #RestructureDebt
(1/25)
What exactly is the process behind the IMF - and why are we doing this IMF thing again?
Why do we need to do this regardless of #GoHomeRajapaksas or not?
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #SriLankaCrisis #IMFNow #RestructureDebt
(1/19)
So yeah, we need to act now before we crash and burn.
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #IMFNow #RestructureDebt
@ChayuDamsinghe @vroomd Back of envelope - abt $4.6bn central govt external debt service in 2022. Of that abt $2.4bn is ISB servicing. So on avg about $200mn/month in bilateral & multilateral debt servicing. in reality some months more, others less. SOEs debt in addition to this
A lot of people know about the July 1b, but we have a series of payments before then too. There's ~80mn on April 18th alone!
We need to suspend, communicate, and restructure now before we crash and burn!
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #RestructureDebt #IMFNow
Heartening to see so many young economists / influences bringing out the urgency of #SriLankaEconomicCrisis👇🏽 is how tight SL is cutting it, to make it to the first IMF meeting and be on the original timeline #imfNow
🇱🇰 Short term who ever the new finance minister has to keep a draft ready on announcing the stance on IMF & Debt Restructuring even before sworn in and make the announcement on the way out leaving Pres Sec. Might have to straight take the next plane to DC. Things are that tight⌚️
Acute medical, fuel shortages, usable reserves ~$150m.. we’ve never seen such a dire situation. What will next week bring?
Suspend payments. Appoint advisers. Go. To. The. IMF
#IMFNow #RestructureDebt
Time for some bad news - but if it forces action, it can be good news in disguise.
Seems like the end-March reserves number is closer to 150 mn USD compared to the 300 mn USD earlier being thought of.
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #EconomicCrisisLK #IMFNow
With India saying we got around 270k metric tons so far, and global prices per mt of petrol and diesel averaging around 820 USD per mt (+any other costs) broadly accurate. Credit line is going to run out fast
#EconomicCrisisLK #SriLankaEconomiCrisis #IMFNow
A short thread on "hyperinflation" - which Sri Lanka is NOT facing - and how we can avoid it.
(1/6)
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #IMFNow
IMF programs are associated with pain, and there unfortunately isn’t a painless way for us out of this #SriLankaEconomicCrisis. However, there are security nets for the most vulnerable while we implement critical reforms👇🏽 #IMFNow
I understand the hesitation of an IMF program. BUT the IMF has changed over the years. Since 2012 all their programs have included targets on social spending (pension, social safety net, education, health). This is more than double the share during 2002-2011 1/3
Let me explain why interest rates moving up, at this stage, is very good news.
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #IMFNow
(1/15)
#EconomicCrisisLK due to a triple deficit
FISCAL, CURRENT AC & CAPABLE LEADERSHIP
#TIMEISUP #IMFNow
Step 1 for whats needed for urgent stability - big rate hike, seems to be coming! Very very good news.
(ps. ask any questions those who don't know what this is about and why this is good news)
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #IMFNow
We have a curve now. Hallelujah !
Tbill Auction results
3m: 14.12% (+1.20)
6m: 15.36% (+3.11)
1Y : 15.69% (+3.41)
We have ~80 mn in an ISB on the 18th to pay off, and possibly some 1bn in trade clearance in May. We need to act immediately or we crash in debt markets and also run out of import space for essentials.
#IMFNow #RestructureDebt #SriLankaEconomicCrisis
@RegularReh Forget July one. I am concerned about making payments this month
Sri Lanka 2022 (Article IV 2021)
"Social safety nets should be strengthened, by increasing spending, widening coverage, and
improving targeting"
The IMF's own report for SL asks for INCREASED spending and wider coverage.
#IMFNow #SriLankaEconomicCrisis
Quick key extracts from recent (post-Covid) IMF reports regarding social welfare. This should give a sense how the IMF views social welfare NOW and why we have space (and the urgent need) to expand welfare to deal with the #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and key #IMFNow reform
(1/7)
Change in leadership is a crucial step + appointing suitable people to haul us out of this #SriLankaEconomicCrisis. Near forex market paralysis means we can’t service our debt (~$1.9b for nxt 3mths) + pay for essentials. It’s a matter of time till one gives way #IMFNow
I'm going to be advocating for and explaining some contentious economic points in the days to come re #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and #IMFNow so to be open and clear, this is about what I'm trying to achieve, why I'm trying to achieve it, and what my principles here are.
(1/25)
Not only do we have low reserves, but they’re also unsustainable. With no access to capital markets, low remittances, tourism in jeopardy, uncertainty about a free falling currency - the IMF process must be made a priority #SriLankaEconomicCrisis #IMFNow
98% of #SriLanka's gross foreign reserves constituted of short-term swaps as of Jan '22 whereas in 2019 it accounted only for 5%.
These swaps:
🟢help ease the problem of liquidity
🔴does not help improve reserve balance or solve the #EconomicCrisisLK in the long run
Let me try and explain this as best as I can.
SL has almost always had a negative balance between what we get as dollar income and what we give as dollar expenses.
We've broadly met this balance through debt.
#SriLankaEconomicCrisis #SriLanka #IMFNow
(1/12)
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