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TCMB Maintains ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach Amid War Uncertainty: No Change in Policy Rate or Corridor 📍 The main inflation trend shows a decline in March, but a slight rebound is projected for April. 📍 In the medium-term outlook, the Bank emphasizes a balanced sensitivity to the energy shock’s dual impact—both cost pressures and growth slowdown. While highlighting risks of weaker economic activity, it seems to underscore that the ‘wait-and-see’ stance remains the key anchor for interest rate policy. At the same time, it adds cautionary notes on cost-driven indirect inflation risks, explicitly stressing its “prudent stance against upside risks to inflation.” 📍 The broader strategy of aligning rate steps with interim targets is preserved. However, signals point to a significant upward revision in inflation forecasts at next month’s Inflation Report meeting. Bottom line: Just as in last month’s meeting, which coincided with the early phase of the war, TCMB has once again opted for a ‘wait-and-see’ approach in an environment of prolonged uncertainty and rising economic costs. Overnight rates will remain the effective indicator for some time, while the preference for policy simplification has been postponed. #TCMB #MPC #RateDecision #EnergyShock

Fed's Barkin: Clear Sense That Job Market Has Loosened - Hard To Calibrate What's Going On With Labor Supply - Inflation Data Has Been Consistently Above Target - Firms Say They Have Very Limited Pricing Power - Seeing Disinflation Across The Economy, But Wants More Confirmation In Data - ‘Hopeful’ Inflation Retreating To 2% But Wants Data To Show This Clearly