#LongTransitory - Twitter Hashtag

Arin Dube

@arindube

almost 3 years ago

As the dust is settling, #LongTransitory seems to be a fairly compelling interpretation of the inflation facts.

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Arin Dube

@arindube

almost 3 years ago

The problem with this way of assessing what's happening now is that it assumes this is all about the Fed landing the plane. What if a big part is returning to a normal economy after a pandemic, peppered with a geopolitical oil shock? #LongTransitory

Nick Timiraos

@NickTimiraos

almost 3 years ago

Almost every hard landing looks at first like a soft landing What's standing in the way of a soft landing now: -The Fed staying too high for too long -A too-hot economy -A rise in oil prices -A financial market rupture "Planes land. Economies don't." https://t.co/kC0Yn29IYX

NickTimiraos's tweet photo. Almost every hard landing looks at first like a soft landing

What's standing in the way of a soft landing now:

-The Fed staying too high for too long
-A too-hot economy
-A rise in oil prices
-A financial market rupture

"Planes land. Economies don't."

https://t.co/kC0Yn29IYX https://t.co/MSMbbngiL3

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Arin Dube

@arindube

about 3 years ago

This is the theory of #LongTransitory or #ReCombobulation. Inflation was a temporary though uncomfortably long feature of re-opening, and temp demand. It originated in the product market: wages followed didn't lead. And it would come down on its own not needing unemployment.

Ivan Werning

@IvanWerning

about 3 years ago

Based on the latest numbers and trends, I think the main ideas of this paper (first written mid 2022) is holding up pretty well. An updated version of the paper is here... https://t.co/TFyYCdStjR Video presentation here... https://t.co/U6rads3OlA

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Arin Dube

@arindube

about 3 years ago

We've not had many episodes of "soft landing" in the past 50 years but then again we haven't emerged from a pandemic either. We can call it soft landing, but a large part of it is just the economy returning to normal. #recombobulation #LongTransitory