Top Tweets for #MandateRepeal
CMS #OE6 Report: “Avg premiums dropped 1.5% because we’re awesome!”
https://t.co/Tp6KDCPeAq
REALITY: Avg. premiums WOULD have dropped more like *9%* w/out #MandateRepeal & #ShortAssPlan expansion
2019 #ACA-compliant individual market policies are increasing by just 2.8% on average…but I estimate they WOULD have DROPPED by ~5.4% if not for #MandateRepeal & #ShortAssPlans being expanded. That’s an avg. difference of nearly $49/month or $580/year per unsubsidized enrollee.
In a handful of states it's having little or no impact at all--but only because those states CANCELLED OUT #MandateRepeal and/or #ShortAssPlans at the state level. In other states it's higher than 8-9%.
There's NO dispute about WHETHER #MandateRepeal & #ShortAssPlans are causing 2019 rates to increase--only about *how much* they're causing them to increase. The Urban Institute projected it'd be around 16% nationally last spring. I estimate it to only be around 8-9% on average.
15/ HOWEVER, it's important to understand that those price drops (or minor increases) are SEPARATE from other factors, which are ALSO baked in. Some carriers *lowered* rates by, 15% to comply w/MLR...but then *raised* them by 8-9% to account for #MandateRepeal + #ShortAssPlans.
CONNECTICUT:
The good news is #ACASabotage is only increasing 2019 premiums nominally.
The bad news is that this is because unsubsidized enrollees are ALREADY paying an extra $38/month due to #MandateRepeal THIS year:
https://t.co/mmBov6jwX8
That's why carriers are ALL OVER THE PLACE in their projections about how much extra to bake in for 2019. Some aren't adding anything. Some are adding an extra 10-15%. On average, I estimate they're tacking on around 7-8% for #MandateRepeal and another 1-2% for #ShortAssPlans. 3/
HOWEVER--and THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT--the 17% hike caused by CSR cut-off & other #ACASabotage factors are STILL mostly baked in, & more importantly, there's ANOTHER 9% or so baked into 2019 rates due to THIS year's #ACASabotage: #MandateRepeal & expansion of #ShortAssPlans. 17/
11/ …and then THIS year, when #MandateRepeal + #ShortAssPlans are pushing rates up about 9% higher than they would be otherwise: https://t.co/Oh09K24bg3
53/ RHODE ISLAND: I estimate around an extra ~$50 MORE per unsubsidized enrollee *specifically* due to #ACASabotage than they’d otherwise have to pay. Interesting case—the carriers in RI were oddly dismissive of the impact of #MandateRepeal there, projecting only nominal impact.
46/ NEW YORK: SPECIAL CASE. *OFFICIALLY*, there’s no #ACASabotage impact because Gov. Cuomo “isn’t allowing” carriers to raise rates to account for #MandateRepeal, & NY bans #ShortAssPlans. Realistically, there’s probably more than meets the eye here: https://t.co/sor7ynu3r1
7/ THIS year, the sabotage impact comes mostly from OTHER factors: #MandateRepeal and expansion of #ShortAssPlans, for the most part.
For those confused (since AL carriers are actually *dropping* rates 2%), here’s why: They both clarify that rates would drop significantly *more* without #MandateRepeal & #ShortAssPlans. Note: I’m actually assuming 1/3 *less* of an impact than the @UrbanInstitute did in March.
…but it’d likely be another 5-10 points lower without #MandateRepeal & #ShortAssPlans #ACASabotage (haven’t even clicked the link yet but guessing I’m on safe ground here)…
Another example of ObamaCare premiums decreasing, in Louisiana. "The market has started to stabilize after a couple years of heavy increases," says spokesman for Vantage Health Plan https://t.co/or2bkRoRRD
26/ The BAD news? That #MandateRepeal & #ShortAssPlans sabotage impact is still there. A carrier that would otherwise keep rates flat might be raising it 10%. If they were planning on dropping rates 5% they might be asking for a 6% hike. Maybe a 2 point drop instead of 12.
22/ The most comprehensive effort to project this comes from the folks over at the @UrbanInstitute, who gave estimates of the impact of both #MandateRepeal and #ShortAssPlans (well, the "short" part anyway) in each state: https://t.co/m0iQ6KjrNW
20/ So, how much more will THESE #ACASabotage efforts cause rates to increase? Well, the CBO projected around 10% overall for #MandateRepeal, while other studies indicate anywhere from 2-5% for #ShortAssPlans. Why? Because all of these cause healthy people to drop out...
GOOD NEWS! Insurers and enrollees don’t have to worry about the #RiskAdjustmentFreeze anymore! They just have to…um…worry about #MandateRepeal, #ShortAssPlans and #TexasFoldEm! https://t.co/ozlNz4Fnrp
With California added to the mix, I now estimate that carriers are requesting ~8.0% average rate increases in 2019; HOWEVER, that includes an extra ~9.5 percentage points due to #ACASabotage (#MandateRepeal, #ShortAssPlans & #RiskAdjustmentFreeze in TN specifically).
Most states “only” include two types of #ACASabotage (#MandateRepeal & #ShortAssPlans), but in Tennessee there’s a THIRD type making an appearance: #RiskAdjustmentFreeze, which could raise rates for unsubsidized BCBSTN enrollees by $649 all by itself: https://t.co/Fy03LeCIzM
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