Top Tweets for #PAEV

over 1 year ago

#PAEV @Peoples_Pundit please read

over 1 year ago

🔴 31-Oct Pennsylvania Early Voting Update: Steady sailing to victory 🔴 https://t.co/ybBbudZUXd Today in Pennsylvania, Advantage Trump has taken another large day-over-day jump by 🔴 R+0.65% to 🔴 R+17.10%. PA mail returns are still pouring in for both parties, and on this volume the Democrats netted 🔵D+7,902, but Rs are still closing the gap percentage-wise. The independent 🟡 I heuristic has also further narrowed in favor of Republicans, meaning that new 🟡 Is are disproportionately coming from red counties. Unlike Nevada where narrowing margins are being celebrated at the expense of widening unsustainable R-D vote gaps, Republicans are on the trajectory to win Pennsylvania. Now as to a discussion on why I made a Pennsylvania call so early. The base case for a Trump victory is that Trump lost the state by 80,000 votes in 2020, and that he has closed the early voting gap from 1,100,488 votes to 400,000 in 2024. So in this sense, @ElonMusk was correct. The math then becomes - Are there any ways this early voting advantage does *not* close the 80K gap to create a Trump victory? Virtually every 🔵 Democrat that voted in 2020 and is not early voting in 2024 would have to turn up on Election Day. And, if there are new 🔴 Republicans voting, then they have that much more uphill club. The "killshot" Tweet which caused me to make the call was in realizing that most of the increased Republican EV volume was not originating from high-propensity voters, but rather than from new lower-propensity voters. And that many of the high-propensity voters were historically Election-Day only voters. What this means: Democrats almost have to exceed 2020 turnout to be able to compete with the 2020 Republican turnout plus new voters. There are just multiple vectors along which 80,000 is being closed. Such as my estimate of 30% less turnout in Philadelphia County (see previous Tweet) worth 200,000 votes alone. The implosion of 2020 VBM-only voters, estimated to be worth about 125K and net loss of 🔵 D+18K votes in NC alone. (@ChristianHeiens estimates that this is worth 40K in PA.) And of course, that 100K registration advantage. All of this added up to a confluence of factors to suggest that ... all these early voting numbers simply are not going to be made up on Election Day by Democrats. Ergo all this early voting data allowed me to make a 99% confidence call on 28-Oct. Finally, I won't any longer dignify the nonsense 500,000 firewall number with an update. Last update here: https://t.co/oLKZFdzXPg

DataRepublican's tweet photo. 🔴 31-Oct Pennsylvania Early Voting Update: Steady sailing to victory 🔴

https://t.co/ybBbudZUXd

Today in Pennsylvania, Advantage Trump has taken another large day-over-day jump by 🔴 R+0.65% to 🔴 R+17.10%. PA mail returns are still pouring in for both parties, and on this volume the Democrats netted 🔵D+7,902, but Rs are still closing the gap percentage-wise. The independent 🟡 I heuristic has also further narrowed in favor of Republicans, meaning that new 🟡 Is are disproportionately coming from red counties.

Unlike Nevada where narrowing margins are being celebrated at the expense of widening unsustainable R-D vote gaps, Republicans are on the trajectory to win Pennsylvania.

Now as to a discussion on why I made a Pennsylvania call so early.

The base case for a Trump victory is that Trump lost the state by 80,000 votes in 2020, and that he has closed the early voting gap from 1,100,488 votes to 400,000 in 2024. So in this sense, @ElonMusk was correct.

The math then becomes - Are there any ways this early voting advantage does *not* close the 80K gap to create a Trump victory? Virtually every 🔵 Democrat that voted in 2020 and is not early voting in 2024 would have to turn up on Election Day. And, if there are new 🔴 Republicans voting, then they have that much more uphill club.

The "killshot" Tweet which caused me to make the call was in realizing that most of the increased Republican EV volume was not originating from high-propensity voters, but rather than from new lower-propensity voters. And that many of the high-propensity voters were historically Election-Day only voters.

What this means: Democrats almost have to exceed 2020 turnout to be able to compete with the 2020 Republican turnout plus new voters.

There are just multiple vectors along which 80,000 is being closed. Such as my estimate of 30% less turnout in Philadelphia County (see previous Tweet) worth 200,000 votes alone. The implosion of 2020 VBM-only voters, estimated to be worth about 125K and net loss of 🔵 D+18K votes in NC alone. (@ChristianHeiens estimates that this is worth 40K in PA.) And of course, that 100K registration advantage.

All of this added up to a confluence of factors to suggest that ... all these early voting numbers simply are not going to be made up on Election Day by Democrats.

Ergo all this early voting data allowed me to make a 99% confidence call on 28-Oct.

Finally, I won't any longer dignify the nonsense 500,000 firewall number with an update.

Last update here: https://t.co/oLKZFdzXPg

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almost 2 years ago

@DataRepublican @TonerousHyus @athein1 @MichaelPruser @earlyvotedata #PAEV - @datarepublican map shows https://t.co/VKkcRpphZZ which shows a comparison to 2020 and indicating Trump with a 16.45% advantage up from 15% yesterday Due to shenanigan’s in Buck county, the GOP sued and had IPEV extended through Friday.

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almost 2 years ago

Election Mail/IPEV Megathread #4 10.30.24 @datarepublican , @toneroushyus , @athein1 , @michaelpruser , @earlyvotedata all do a great job covering EV so let’s fire up today’s update. #FLEV #GAEV #NVEV #AZEV #PAEV #MIEV #WIEV #NCEV

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almost 2 years ago

#PAEV - @datarepublican has her new map out https://t.co/VKkcRpphZZ which shows a comparison to 2020 and indicating Trump with a 15% advantage up from 14% yesterday

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almost 2 years ago

Election Mail/IPEV Megathread #3 @datarepublican , @toneroushyus , @athein1 , @michaelpruser , @earlyvotedata all do a great job covering EV so let’s fire up today’s update. #FLEV #GAEV #NVEV #AZEV #PAEV #MIEV #WIEV #NCEV

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almost 2 years ago

@earlyvotedata #PAEV

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almost 2 years ago

#paev

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almost 2 years ago

#PAEV And now the killshot - I will need followers' help in explaining the significance of this data to others. Percentage of voters in Allegheny County, PA who voted only on Election Day (prior to 2024): 🔴 R : 72.3% 🔵 D : 33.6% 🟡 I : 55.4% Cannibalization factor - e.g., these voters voted early this year. 🔴 R : 8.98% 65.42% of Republicans have already returned their ballots. Cannibalization factor due to VBM efforts is projected to be an upper of 15% of Republican Election-Day voters.

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almost 2 years ago

Allegheny County, PA - #PAEV High-Propensity voters who voted in 2020 and 2022 🔴 R : 17.5% have voted in 2024 🔵 D : 33.3% have voted in 2024 🟡 I : 19.7% have voted in 2024

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almost 2 years ago

#PAEV

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almost 2 years ago

#PAEV - @datarepublican has her new map out https://t.co/VKkcRpphZZ Which shows a comparison to 2020 and indicating Trump with a 14% advantage. Follow along for an explanation https://t.co/6cKrg15vB6

almost 2 years ago

https://t.co/ybBbudZUXd has been updated with the weekend's numbers as well as the new voter registration file. Over one weekend alone, the Advantage Trump grew from 11.94% to 14.13%. What this means is the margin grew by that much - so let's pretend a group of people voted 50%-50% in 2020. A 14.13% Advantage Trump means that same group is voting 57.065% - %42.935 - the margin expanded by 14.13%. If that sounds incredible - that's because it is! And over the past weekend alone,Venango County and Crawford got flipped to R, and a lot of counties - Mercer/Warren/Butler/Montour are <300 votes away from flipping. Whatever is happening, IS WORKING. @ScottPresler

DataRepublican's tweet photo. https://t.co/ybBbudZUXd has been updated with the weekend's numbers as well as the new voter registration file. Over one weekend alone, the Advantage Trump grew from 11.94% to 14.13%.

What this means is the margin grew by that much - so let's pretend a group of people voted 50%-50% in 2020. A 14.13% Advantage Trump means that same group is voting 57.065% - %42.935 - the margin expanded by 14.13%.

If that sounds incredible - that's because it is!

And over the past weekend alone,Venango County and Crawford got flipped to R, and a lot of counties - Mercer/Warren/Butler/Montour are <300 votes away from flipping.

Whatever is happening, IS WORKING. @ScottPresler

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almost 2 years ago

A refresher. #NVEV #PAEV https://t.co/maS8lnzZxv

almost 2 years ago

@earlyvotedata and @TonerousHyus are better sources to follow on the "PA firewall." But I think the concept of a firewall in the first place is somewhat fake. It was heavily discussed in FL 2020 as well although it was called "magic number" then. My view - a firewall is far downstream of the primary factor, which is party enthusiasm and early voting turnout. It works as a proxy, but as the target number necessarily changes based on turnout, it is not even a good proxy because it is based on more accurate upstream numbers. Whichever party is more motivated, will show up more in the early voting statistics. Trump lost PA by 1%. Ergo, if his early voting statistics shows him closing the gap by 1% or more, that's the "real firewall" right there, IMHO.

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almost 2 years ago

#PAEV

Michael Pruser

@MichaelPruser

almost 2 years ago

A quick look at the last seven days of Pennsylvania voter registrations. 🔴Republicans +36,507 🔵Democrats +19,774 🟡Others +17,114 Pennsylvania voter registration closed on Monday, October 21st, but a substantial backlog of entered data came in this week, representing almost all outstanding registrations. The state will publish a closing report any day. Democrats have a 281,081 total registration advantage, which will likely drop slightly before election day as counties complete their data entry. The chart shows the weekly change beginning July 1st; Republicans have net 92,500 registrations over the last four months.

MichaelPruser's tweet photo. A quick look at the last seven days of Pennsylvania voter registrations.

🔴Republicans +36,507
🔵Democrats +19,774
🟡Others +17,114

Pennsylvania voter registration closed on Monday, October 21st, but a substantial backlog of entered data came in this week, representing almost all outstanding registrations. The state will publish a closing report any day.

Democrats have a 281,081 total registration advantage, which will likely drop slightly before election day as counties complete their data entry.

The chart shows the weekly change beginning July 1st; Republicans have net 92,500 registrations over the last four months.

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almost 2 years ago

#PAEV

CA ET Nerd

@earlyvotedata

almost 2 years ago

While we wait for the PA SOS to release their numbers, let's look at my previous model for Requests. Requests end tomorrow in PA. Total Final Requests Modeled: D: 1,144,656 (55.37%) R: 660,704 (31.96%) Total Requests: 2,067,286 I actually think this will be pretty close!

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