Top Tweets for #NCEV
#NCEV update 11/4 am. R lead receded by 400 to 40.6k. (was D lead by ~200k in 2020 but don’t have exact data). I think R lead might recede a bit more in am due to mail. R are +~250k compared to 2020. Rs usually win the E-day vote. Trump should win NC 4+ pts.
@DataRepublican Here are the historical results for NC election day, early vote, and in total in NC (2016, 2020 & 2022) if you haven't seen this to compare your model to - has the actual votes (not cast by party) for each candidate:
#NCEV update 11/3 am. R lead receded a bit to 41k just like last weekend on this final IPEV day. I think R lead would recede a bit more by 11/4 due to mail. R are +~250-280k compared to 2020. R usually win the E-day vote. Trump should handily win NC.
#NCEV update 11/2 am. R lead growth continued, albeit small, and is now 51.3k (was D lead by 254k in 2020). I think R lead might recede a bit by 11/4. R are +300k compared to 2020. R usually win the E-day vote. Trump should handily win NC.
#NCEV update 11/1 am. R lead growth continued and is now 50.4k (was D lead by 269k in 2020). I think R lead would remain around current number by 11/4. R are +320k compared to 2020. R usually win the E-day vote. Trump should handily win NC.
#NCEV update 10/31 am. R lead growth has slowed and is 47k (was D lead by 285k in 2020). I think R lead would stabilize to ~50k range by 11/4. R are +330k compared to 2020. Rs usually win the E-day vote. Trump should handily win NC.
@andrei__roman You guys need to check out the work @DataRepublican has done tracking #NCEV
https://t.co/ePK2zo26eD
@TonerousHyus #NCEV @RebekkaAdams198 did a deep dive on her prediction for NC. Let's add her analysis.
https://t.co/2BqCX1jAVO
As a follow up to my '24 NC prediction this morning of Trump +5 (link below), I thought I'd go into why I am not worried that I'm +4 Trump vs the current RCP average,
Let's Review! (1/5)
https://t.co/f0Z9xQnPiz
@aggou @San208939224 @DataRepublican
@TonerousHyus @MichaelPruser @athein1
So I will get one more prediction out of the way, easy one this time. Trump wins NC by at least 3. Projection 5.8
This is not a hard one, Kamala is losing the EV overall in NC by a minimum of 2%. No Dem has ever trailed in the NC EV. Beasley won it by 4%.
Not competitive.
Election Mail/IPEV Megathread #4 10.30.24
@datarepublican , @toneroushyus , @athein1 , @michaelpruser , @earlyvotedata all do a great job covering EV so let’s fire up today’s update.
#FLEV #GAEV #NVEV #AZEV #PAEV #MIEV #WIEV #NCEV
#NCEV update 10/30 am. R lead has resumed growing and is now 42k (was D lead by 300k in 2020). I think R lead would grow further to ~70k range by 11/2, but even if it doesn’t grow further, R are in a good place. Rs usually win the E-day vote. Trump should handily win NC.
#NCEV - @datarepublican map https://t.co/ePK2zo26eD shows trump continuing to enjoy a 7.5% advantage compared to 2022. See her pinned tweet for more details in how to interpret the map.
Election Mail/IPEV Megathread #3
@datarepublican , @toneroushyus , @athein1 , @michaelpruser , @earlyvotedata all do a great job covering EV so let’s fire up today’s update.
#FLEV #GAEV #NVEV #AZEV #PAEV #MIEV #WIEV #NCEV
Good morning. https://t.co/a17v5rO34t has been updated. Republicans netted 🔴R+10,918 yesterday.
🟡 95,066 independents voted as well. Splitting by 2020 county Trump/Biden results assigns them as 🔴R 47,290 and 🔵D 46,338 for a net estimate of 🔴R +952.
Overall positive - perhaps we'll gain more today, as Monday was the weakest weekday for 🔴R last week.
I'm told PA updates around 1 PM ET and I'll update there then.
@Peoples_Pundit @barnes_law Rich, have you seen the work @DataRepublican has been doing mapping #NCEV
https://t.co/mgoEuDVZFB
Good morning. https://t.co/a17v5rO34t has been updated. Republicans netted 🔴R+10,918 yesterday.
🟡 95,066 independents voted as well. Splitting by 2020 county Trump/Biden results assigns them as 🔴R 47,290 and 🔵D 46,338 for a net estimate of 🔴R +952.
Overall positive - perhaps we'll gain more today, as Monday was the weakest weekday for 🔴R last week.
I'm told PA updates around 1 PM ET and I'll update there then.
#NCEV update 10/29 am. R lead has resumed growing and is now 34k (was D lead by 316k in 2020). I think R lead would grow further to ~70k range by 11/2, but even if it doesn’t grow further, Rs are in a good place. Rs usually win the E-day vote. Trump should handily win NC.
#NCEV update 10/28 am. R lead has further dipped to 23.7k, a Sunday souls-to-the-polls effect (was D lead by 330k in 2020). If the weekday trend from last week continues, Rs should have ~70k lead by 11/2. Rs usually win the E-day vote. Trump should handily win NC.
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