Top Tweets for #PVStreamer
The #NATL #TC season has many high latitude TCs developing in close proximity to high PV air. Yet another event is likely to transpire involving Invest #95L this week.
Here is a 96h animation of the most recent #GFS run showing its complex interaction w/ a digging #PVstreamer.
2) While the #PVstreamer is likely to induce strong #VWS over the disturbance, it will also increase instability & provide a baroclinic mode for convective development. QG dynamics support convection via PV advection by the thermal wind (i.e., shear).
1) There are two areas to watch in the #NATL #tropics tonight.
An wave emerging off Africa will be under an upr-level ridge, favorable for development.
However, the over the Lesser Antilles will contend with a large #PVstreamer produced via #AWB & its fcast is more uncertain.
1) Lets talk about #PVStreamer (#PVS) activity in the #NATL so far in 2018.
First, here's a 7-day running sum of the PVS Index (#PVSI) which integrates PVS number, size, & intensity.
So far, PVSI has been consistently above normal since the beginning of the #hurricane season.
@splillo @jacquesmainguy @antmasiello @MJVentrice Yep! The temp. relaxation of the NPAC ridge was all we needed to set stage for the SER. With a #PVstreamer dropping into the southwestern US, the #STJ is roaring back to life & tapping EPAC convection & downslope warming in the southern rockies that aids SE ridge building d/s.
What a fascinating evolution going through the rossby wave breaking lifecycle. Begins as a positively tilted #PVStreamer which thins & fractures into a cutoff low. The cutoff low then initiates surface cyclogenesis and occlusion before landfall in #Chile. Beautiful animation. https://t.co/xCBJL1cupX
See the full evolution of this storm over the past 48 hours as it developed very rapidly into a mid-latitude cyclone over the Pacific, more satellite imagery: https://t.co/6UU1LIcRsv
But really, what a classic pattern to enable Tropical-transition (#TT) if favorable conditions had existed >24-48-hrs. From #AWB, leading to #PVstreamer formation, which interacts with high moisture, triggering convection & sfc #cyclogenesis at tale end. Maps from @AliciaMBentley
Want to learn how intensity differences in #PVstreamer activity impact #TC activity in the #NATL basin? Come by poster number 577 starting at 3:45pm where I'd be happy to talk more! For now here is some eye candy. π #AMS2018
@AlexJLamers Haha thanks! Honestly a lot of the times I make it for myself to see if I can connect the dots trying to trace back where a pattern shift originates. Also, I'm naturally biased to anything that involves a #PVstreamer π
Moore et al.: Presence of #PVstreamer over WUS assoc. w/ a sig. increase in extreme precip events. 58% of EPEs assoc. w/ a PVS. #CW18
Interesting battle b/w favorable eq. #Kelvin wave convection vs. unfavorable #PVstreamer induced shear. Determines fate of #AEW in #MDR.
@raileyky The two are connected. Its moving off to the WSW because it's feeling the effects of the #PVstreamer & stronger northeasterly flow.
As #Irma begins tracking to the WSW, the southerly push by the #PVstreamer to the NW is also imparting some ne'rly shr undercutting outflow.
@JesusReproduced A #PVStreamer is similar to an upper-level trough. The main diff. is that it's defined using "potential" vorticity instead of just vorticity
So, watch n/ 48-72hrs to see if #PVstreamer behind #Irma digs in. Part of why #ECMWF is further S is b/c this feature is stronger&further S.
However, the steering impact of the #PVstreamer is transient. When it lifts out, #Irma's motion returns to a more traditional WNW heading.
What's causing #Hurricane #Irma's rare upcoming WSW motion? If we split steering into 3 key features, importance of #PVstreamer is revealed!
While still writing up my PhD results, I want to show an infographic of seasonal #PVstreamer activity & where 2017 stands relative to climo.
Verification: #GFS fcast did well w/ #PVStreamer dist shifted N vs. climo. Anomalously fav. #MDR conditions verified & #TD4 formed in MDR.
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