Il neige

It snows in winter in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, and I love it. Flying the Punxsutawney banner just b/c he's cute.

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

(1 of 6) What started as a quickie response to a troll of the outfits who trash CPC sub-seasonal forecasts for obvious salesmanship reasons, became a deeper look into @NWSCPC's day 6-10 and day 8-14 forecast biases for the extended winter (NDJFM).

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

Maryupol today. https://t.co/hJzlNKv1sF #Ukraine #Russia

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

#Bitcoin going down, #natgas going up. What could go wrong for #crypto mining?

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

Brought the beer, the white wine and the red wine from the garage. Ready for the deluge! #ABStorm https://t.co/n53vfcgjSn

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@elonmusk , crusader for free speech on @Twitter - and a @Tesla @teslacn giga-factory in Shanghai? Hmm...

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@KHome1990 CFS

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

Whether we see a HH #natgas gap up on Sunday evening will be indicative of speculator sentiment, and whether that sustains on Monday will show whether real market participants think a more likely year-end cool-down still matters for this winter.

[RonH @Ronh999]

NWSCPC 6-10 & 8-14 day forecasts made on Dec 11. #Natgas https://t.co/rjO69WSMFc

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@KHome1990 Transition between phase 6 and 7 is what seems to help trigger the -NAO. There is variable, but ca. 10 day lag between the MJO trigger and the impact in the N. Atlantic, which is why -NAO usually lives through phase 8. See for ex. https://t.co/KC6sM7y5Kr

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@KHome1990 The 12Z EPS and 18Z GEFS start the -NAO episode ca. Dec 21-22, and it seems consistent to me with +10 days after MJO entered solid phase 7. CFS returns MJO to its avg. speed. I feel the -NAO might be over by New Year's.

[Eric Webb @webberweather]

This is one of the more insightful papers I've read lately.

QBO-MJO relationship is unique to MJO b/c it's more active wrt equator, more vertically coherent than other equatorial waves, & most active when the TTL is climatologically coolest/most unstable
https://t.co/kconMw886n

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@KHome1990 It seems that no pattern can persit long over N. America this winter. Even the current SER was supposed to stay until around x-mas, and now the -NAO episode might start earlier -- but then also not last more than a week or so...

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@BenNollWeather ...and in Canadian, eh.

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@BenNollWeather ...and no kiwis?

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@BenNollWeather Sooo... I see: a bee, a teddy-bear, the statue of liberty, a tree, two planes, some kind of gremlin, a crown, a tap with water, your sweetheart's face? an M, an old-fashioned TV, a finger pointing left...

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

Snow Squall warning for Calgary - not that common (more common downwind of the Great Lakes). Actually only light-to-moderate intensity here, just South of Nose Hill #ABStorm

[NWS Sioux Falls @NWSSiouxFalls]

CHECK THIS OUT! Current satellite shows the fresh snow fall from yesterdays storm 🛰. You can see the snow beginning to melt on the southern side as temperatures warm to above freezing in Iowa and Nebraska. ❄

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

What a waste of energy, for something that would be so deflationary (and therefore destructive) if broadly adopted as a currency, that it can only be a niche speculation #Bitcoin $BTC

[Boudin @boudin420]

$AUNXF
@AXP_Energy
#OIL #natgas #BTCmining w/ #natgas! #OTC stock currently under .01 $cei $xom $cop $lng $ogzpy
#BTCSTUSDT #BTC 👇👇👇#SHIB #SHIBARMY

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

BTW, I am sure California dam operators and people depending on them will be relieved at seeing all that snow come to finally start replenishing come snowmelt season...

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

Phew. Who said only Texans do things on a grand scale when they do it? In California, when it snows, it pukes. Does not look like an atmospheric river - but more like an atmospheric dam breach!

[Caltrans District 3 @CaltransDist3]

Our friends @NWSSacramento have just issued new snow forecast graphs for the upcoming weather system: 80-100 inches at Donner Summit on I-80 and 60-80 inches at Echo Summit on U.S. HWY 50 🥶😱 We highly advise limiting travel to before or after the storm!!

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

As several have already pointed out already, the #MJO is about to finally break through into the Pacific and resume normal progression. Looking at upper-level divergence, it seems to be able to do so as the #LaNina standing wave ("Low") weakens, and MJO takes over.

[Il neige @jacquesmainguy]

@Bubblespotting I am not sure you understand the meaning of @judah47's phrase "supersonic #PolarVortex". Put mildly, it's not exactly bullish for #natgas! Such polar vortex keeps all the cold - near the pole. Nothing to do with the 2013 "Polar Vortex" winter, when the PV was out of place...