Top Tweets for #QuantileModel

about 1 hour ago

🤖 $BNB Model Performance (July 9–16): • Engine: CMA-ES & Quantile • Target: Daily Close Prices • Avg. Accuracy: 98.75% 🎯 Precision engineering meets market volatility. 🚀 #BNB #CryptoPrediction #CMAES #QuantileModel #CryptoTrading #DataScience

Lourenço VS

@lourenco_vs

about 2 months ago

#QuantileModel Just to put things into perspective, and making sure none of my followers will be kicking themselves sometime in the future when BTC hits 200k+, crying "why didn't I buy it then, it was so obvious" According to the Quantile Model, we are today at the same quantile that we were in 2022 when price was at 18kish. Do you think 18kish was a stupid place to buy? Also we are just north of 10% above the 200 week sma. If you like an asset, you buy around the 200 week, that´s it, no questions asked. You should know what to do. And yes, this is Financial Advice.

lourenco_vs's tweet photo. #QuantileModel

Just to put things into perspective, and making sure none of my followers will be kicking themselves sometime in the future when BTC hits 200k+, crying "why didn't I buy it then, it was so obvious"

According to the Quantile Model, we are today at the same quantile that we were in 2022 when price was at 18kish.

Do you think 18kish was a stupid place to buy? Also we are just north of 10% above the 200 week sma. If you like an asset, you buy around the 200 week, that´s it, no questions asked.

You should know what to do.

And yes, this is Financial Advice.

167

Lourenço VS

@lourenco_vs

4 months ago

#QuantileModel The 0.1 Quantile is now at 55k. This means that the probability of BTC going to spend time below this price today is below 0.1%. In 1 years time, this floor price will be 76k, and the 85 Quantile will be 225k and the 95 Quantile at 330k. We are at an amazing R:R zone. With BTC "time in the market" > "time the market". HODL. (Quantile model Indicator @jv_finance )

lourenco_vs's tweet photo. #QuantileModel

The 0.1 Quantile is now at 55k. This means that the probability of BTC going to spend time below this price today is below 0.1%.

In 1 years time, this floor price will be 76k, and the 85 Quantile will be 225k and the 95 Quantile at 330k.

We are at an amazing R:R zone. With BTC "time in the market" > "time the market".

HODL.

(Quantile model Indicator @jv_finance )

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18K

Lourenço VS

@lourenco_vs

4 months ago

#QuantileModel I've spoke in previous posts about this model. For me personally this is the best BTC model out there. This is nothing like your faggio rainbow chart that floats around. Using statistical regression methodology with millions of data points of BTC´s history to calculate bands based on the probability of time spent below each of them. As of now, the 0.1% quantile sits at 54k and the 1% at 58k. When we touched the 60k level at the time I believe it reached the 2-3% quantile. Betting for prices below this is just a pure gamble, a non-rational behaviour going against probabilities. Probabilities, like gravity, are one of the most unavoidable forces there are, you can run from it but you can´t hide. The grey band where were are (below 73k) is our accumulation zone. No need to overthink it. Credit to @jv_finance for the indicator.

lourenco_vs's tweet photo. #QuantileModel

I've spoke in previous posts about this model. For me personally this is the best BTC model out there. This is nothing like your faggio rainbow chart that floats around.

Using statistical regression methodology with millions of data points of BTC´s history to calculate bands based on the probability of time spent below each of them.

As of now, the 0.1% quantile sits at 54k and the 1% at 58k. When we touched the 60k level at the time I believe it reached the 2-3% quantile.

Betting for prices below this is just a pure gamble, a non-rational behaviour going against probabilities.

Probabilities, like gravity, are one of the most unavoidable forces there are, you can run from it but you can´t hide.

The grey band where were are (below 73k) is our accumulation zone. No need to overthink it.

Credit to @jv_finance for the indicator.

Lourenço VS

@lourenco_vs

4 months ago

#QuantileModel As far as I understand the Quantile model (Power Law) is a statistical model that calculates regression bands according to the time that Bitcoin´s price spent below each of the levels. It then adds some decay functions and a few other adjustments that I´m not so familiar with. Currently, the 1% Quantile is around 58k, which tells us that statistically below that price BTC has a probability of less than 1% in terms of the time that it would be expected to live under it. Under this band historically price went a total of 58 days or around 3 days/year on average. So for someone betting on prices below 58k on a sustained way, what that person is really doing is to make a bet with 99% probability of going belly up. I personally like to have probabilities on my side, not against me.

Sminston With 👁

@sminston_with

5 months ago

Here's the BTC support stats 📊 The drop yesterday swiftly took us below the 3rd %ile, just scraping ~$60k, before having a healthy bounce back up to what is now $67.4k, almost exactly the 5th %ile. We should keep experiencing greater "strength" of support, the lower we go. - - - For example, we did actually briefly drop below the 1st %ile at the bottom in 2022 - but the average time spent below that level is only 3.7 days out of the year. We've officially punched into the support rainbow - now you can NOT tell me we aren't right near the bottom, if we aren't already there.

sminston_with's tweet photo. Here's the BTC support stats 📊

The drop yesterday swiftly took us below the 3rd %ile, just scraping ~$60k, before having a healthy bounce back up to what is now $67.4k, almost exactly the 5th %ile.

We should keep experiencing greater "strength" of support, the lower we go.
- - -

For example, we did actually briefly drop below the 1st %ile at the bottom in 2022 - but the average time spent below that level is only 3.7 days out of the year.

We've officially punched into the support rainbow - now you can NOT tell me we aren't right near the bottom, if we aren't already there.

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400

336K

Lourenço VS

@lourenco_vs

7 months ago

#QuantileModel If we look at @TheRealPlanC model, this projects forward the probability of BTC being under or above a certain quantile level based on the time that BTC has spent on these said quantiles, using historical data points. It also accounts for some decay functions to incorporate the expected compression of volatility in an exponential growth asset. The 1 quantile today sits at 54k, very close to where the 200 week is also sitting currently. So if you're following these influencer´s chart arrows pointing to 30-40k you're setting yourself for failure. As I said, I haven't sold BTC this cycle yet, and if we happen to fall in the 60´s I will be buying more. Data > feelings

lourenco_vs's tweet photo. #QuantileModel

If we look at @TheRealPlanC model, this projects forward the probability of BTC being under or above a certain quantile level based on the time that BTC has spent on these said quantiles, using historical data points.

It also accounts for some decay functions to incorporate the expected compression of volatility in an exponential growth asset.

The 1 quantile today sits at 54k, very close to where the 200 week is also sitting currently.

So if you're following these influencer´s chart arrows pointing to 30-40k you're setting yourself for failure.

As I said, I haven't sold BTC this cycle yet, and if we happen to fall in the 60´s I will be buying more.

Data > feelings

Lourenço VS

@lourenco_vs

7 months ago

#200week BTC looks like it´s reducing its overall volatility as an asset, which would be expectable as adoption and marcap grows exponentially. It looks obvious that we haven´t had an exuberant or overstretched top (assuming the top is in). Even if we were to go into a "bear market" from here, with price trending generally sideways and down for a few months, does it look plausible that we are gonna pierce through the 200 week? I highly doubt it, and more, If we go and kiss the 200, I will be a buyer of several more BTC into my stash. 200 week is now at 57k and rising.

lourenco_vs's tweet photo. #200week

BTC looks like it´s reducing its overall volatility as an asset, which would be expectable as adoption and marcap grows exponentially.

It looks obvious that we haven´t had an exuberant or overstretched top (assuming the top is in). Even if we were to go into a "bear market" from here, with price trending generally sideways and down for a few months, does it look plausible that we are gonna pierce through the 200 week?

I highly doubt it, and more, If we go and kiss the 200, I will be a buyer of several more BTC into my stash.

200 week is now at 57k and rising.

Lourenço VS

@lourenco_vs

11 months ago

#QuantileModel @TheRealPlanC quantile model suggests BTC is trading at moderate levels, close to the 60 quantile. Even if Bitty were to double from here until year end it would still be trading under normal and expected bands, according to this model. Some say 200k BTC is ludicrous, the math says otherwise. I chose data over speculation any day of the week.

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