Top Tweets for #Reflation
#Reflation controlada
PCE 0.4% MoM, Exp. 0.5%
PCE 3.8% YoY, Exp. 3.8%
PCE Core 0.2% YoY, Exp. 0.3%
PCE Core 3.3% YoY, Exp. 3.3%
*US APRIL PRODUCER PRICES RISE 1.4% M/M; EST. +0.5%
*US APRIL PRODUCER PRICES RISE 6.0% Y/Y; EST. +4.8%
FED RATE HIKE ODDS SURGE IN PREDICTION MARKETS
Prediction markets now price a 53% chance of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike before July 2027, with odds jumping sharply in recent trading.
With the next policy window just 49 days away (June 30), activity has picked up fast
Traders are now split on timing: will the Fed move sooner than expected, or wait longer?
https://t.co/kZLYip874l
BREAKING: The UK's 30Y Government Bond Yield surges to 5.79%, the highest level since May 1998.
Inflation is back and interest rates are surging.
Hello Whip Saw 🪚 Wednesday! 🐫
The fog of war remains and 🇮🇷 is flummoxed by T2's refusal to take up arms
Meanwhile 🇺🇸 economic indicators power higher with strong retail sales 🛍️ and ADP jobs #reflation
Let’s dig into the market 🧮!
Också testat en strategi som roterar mellan ett antal ETF:er baserat på regim med mycket gott resultat. Just nu är vi i en regime med reflation -> XLE ETF som innehav. Kommer att publicera båda regelbundet på min substack snart. #Reflation
How do #MAGA folks really buy this?
Consumers are going to get squeezed:
#Oil 2.5y high
#Wheat & #Soybeans 2y highs
#Corn 1y high.
People may end up wishing for #Biden again—this was baked in whether it was #Dems or #GOP
#Markets #Stocks #Commodities #Reflation #Trump #RateCuts
TRUMP: I'M THE ONE THAT ENDED EIGHT WARS
Coming up at 1:35 CST....join me with @cvpayne on @FoxBusiness to discuss taking profits in the #reflation trade and where to look for your next opportunities.
While we will likely get the #BLS payroll data next week, @RevelioLabs suggests we will likely see another weak report. Such slow rates of #employment growth certainly seems to undermine the #reflation narrative, but we will see.
The #Reflation Narrative
Since the beginning of the year, the most #economically sensitive sectors of the #market have been surging higher. We examine the #bull and #bear case of the reflation narrative and what factors to watch closely.
https://t.co/TPInQ84yVy
While everyone is pushing the #reflation narrative, something is happening #economically. As @albertedwards99 noted this morning:
"I think Warsh will be pushing at an open door for lower rates within the #FOMC as, cyclically, #CPI could be set to slide sharply lower. @TheBondFreak notes that Truflation reports its own measure of CPI inflation as slowing sharply in January – to only 0.9% yoy (link). History suggests the official measure of inflation will likely follow Truflation data lower. That would be market moving."
If the economy is #reflating, this should not be happening.
While #hard data has been consistently beating estimates, #soft data is now catching up which supports the #reflation #narrative that has been driving the #markets this year.
Mainstream Expectations: Hope Vs. Potential Risk
Analysts and WallStreet are very #optimistic about 2026. We look behind the "#reflation" narrative, the potential #risks, and how to navigate whatever comes.
https://t.co/Gcw1JtXyvm
I began leaning into this #Reflation trade idea heavily mid to late December aside from $GUSH as Crude Oil wasn't really where I wanted it. $BRENT wasn't trading well into the close of the year so doubling up on energy just didn't seem that logical. As we got into the start of 2026 these trades really started to show their strength and have proven to be banger trades. I think the current setup has more legs as #Goldilocks environment becomes a reality. Inflation trending down with growth accelerating. Reviewing the trades from the date I posted this which doesn't reflect my "true average" prices since I was dollar cost averaging but these are pretty close estimates. Close to Close.
11/18/25 -> $URAA -> $31.18 to $53.20 = ~70.62%
11/18/25 -> $ERX -> $57.78 to $67.20 = ~16.30%
11/18/25 -> $NAIL -> $47.51 to $62.66 = ~31.88%
Total Return = 39.60%
Leaning towards a #Reflation trade, but still waiting on some signals and key confirmation levels. Currently getting risk-off shocks that could fuck this up but starting to run it
– #Crude needs a break & hold above ~$62.30 ($BRENT > $65/bbl)
– #Copper uptrend needs to stay intact
- $DBB breakout on longer time frames (uptrend to remain intact at min)
If these signals line up, that’s my trigger for the next leg. Scaling with leverage into $ERX (2x $XLE); $GUSH (2x $XOP); $URAA (2x $URA). Still waiting for the confirmation and bottom on $XHB but will be 3x levering into that with $NAIL.
Most concerning, with respect to the more optimistic outlooks for #economic growth (ie. #reflation) in 2026 is the continued decline in real disposable #incomes.
Much of the 2026 #bullish #narrative is based on the assumption of #reflation (an increase in economic growth without #inflation). However, given that the #economy is 70% consumption, the continued decline in #wage growth potentially becomes a risk factor to that outlook.
#Earning #expectations continue to increase for 2026 as the #reflation #narrative takes hold.
h.t @ISABELNET_SA
The #deficit continues to improve from the 2020 #spending blowout. That could improve further this year if the #reflation narrative comes to base and #GDP expands as hoped.
The #economic #reflation story has now spread globally with sharp upticks in expected #earnings growth this year.
h/t @ISABELNET_SA
Metals prices ripping higher worldwide. Telling price action which aligns with curves, stocks etc #reflation
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