Top Tweets for #SeptemberInflation
CBRT’s Assessment of September Inflation:
#SeptemberInflation #MonthlyReport #CBRT
- Food, clothing-footwear, and durable consumer goods were key drivers of the monthly inflation increase.
- In services inflation, the “back-to-school” effect played a significant role—particularly in education, transportation, and restaurant-hotel components. The back-to-school impact contributed 0.7 percentage points to September inflation.
- Despite seasonal contract renewal pressures, the decline in monthly rent inflation is considered noteworthy.
- Overall, the underlying trend of monthly inflation shows an upward shift compared to the previous month.
📌 This assessment is largely explanatory of recent developments but does not signal any imminent change in monetary policy.
https://t.co/drt3DQUSzb
My CPI inflation forecast for September is 2.64%; the likelihood of year-end inflation exceeding the upper bound of the CBRT’s forecast range is increasing
#SeptemberInflation #CPI #InflationForecast
In May-June, monthly CPI inflation fell below 2%, fueling optimistic expectations for a faster decline in annual inflation. Unfortunately, in the following two months, inflation climbed back above that threshold. My projection for September points to a further acceleration beyond those levels.
Although the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) referenced developments likely to exert upward pressure in September in the minutes of its latest interest rate meeting last week, it remains uncertain whether these risk factors will prove to be temporary.
Key details behind my inflation forecast:
📌Food inflation is approaching 3% again. There’s a more balanced trend between unprocessed and processed food categories. On the unprocessed side, a decline in fresh fruits-especially lemons-has a supportive effect, while significant price increases are observed in vegetables, poultry, and eggs. Processed food inflation remains high, although slightly more moderate than last month, despite pressure from dairy products. As a result, annual food inflation continues to hover around 33%, posing a major risk to the disinflation process in the coming period.
📌 Price increases in durable consumer goods persist. We may observe monthly average increases in the 2–3% range for household appliances and automobiles.
📌 Although its direct weight is low, education services are contributing to inflation through indirect effects. Monthly increases in education-related expenses could reach 20%. Additionally, accommodation services and transportation fees are adding further upward pressure to monthly inflation.
📌 The continued rise in gold prices is another factor contributing to the monthly inflation rate.
📌 On the other hand, price movements in clothing-footwear, energy, healthcare, communication, and entertainment-culture remain relatively moderate.
📌 Beyond the headline inflation rate, price movements in sticky components such as rent and food services will be crucial for assessing the underlying trend. Following the spike in July and the pullback in August, the sustainability of this moderation will be closely watched.
📌 My forecast for the C-core inflation indicator stands at 2.75%, which remains a significant level.
Medium-term outlook after September inflation:
📌 The decline in annual inflation will lose momentum again. My forecast drops slightly from 32.95% to around 32.50%.
📌 It’s becoming increasingly difficult for annual inflation to fall below 30% by year-end. I’m revising my year-end forecast upward from 29.5% to 30.5%.
📌 It wouldn’t be surprising if the CBRT continues its rate-cut cycle at the October meeting. However, it may consider slowing the pace of cuts.
The BIST bank-to-industry ratio has fallen below 1.10. Upward risks related to September inflation, combined with the post-Fed upward trend in U.S. long-term bond yields, may continue to weigh on bank stocks #BankToIndustry #SeptemberInflation #US10Y
Nigerian Headline Inflation, 2024 -September Our View.
#research #economicnews #globaleconomy #finance #investment #inflation #headlines #headlinenews #fundmanagers #fundmanagersinlagos #fundmanagersinnigeria #inflationrate #watershedfundmanagers #septemberinflation #wednesday
Onion price surge likely to affect September inflation figures #onionprice #SeptemberInflation #CPI
https://t.co/njqYiza0SN
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