Top Tweets for #TIBOR

Former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia: Ethiopia is a Local Player, While Egypt is a Global Partner Whose Interests Washington Won't Gamble With! Although I strongly disagree with Ambassador Tibor Nagy,former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs,linking Egypt's support for Somalia against the secessionist "Somaliland" region solely to the tensions with Ethiopia over the Nile waters and the GERD, I believe he was remarkably honest in clarifying the fundamental constants governing Washington’s view of the Egyptian-Ethiopian rivalry. I paused at his profound statement: "In the first administration, the U.S. was more favorable toward Egypt. I have told Ethiopians that they should never ask the U.S. to pick between Egypt and Ethiopia because, at the end of the day, Egypt is more important for U.S. foreign policy. That is the reality. I know many Ethiopians will be unhappy with that; for them, Ethiopia is the center of the universe." "The Center of the Universe",this specific characterization by Nagy explains much of the political behavior of Abiy Ahmed’s administration. It serves as a "reality check" to the state's mindset that believes the world will forgive any of its transgressions,whether in maritime expansion or the Renaissance Dam,simply because it is "Ethiopia." This discourse is critically important, especially coming from a man regarded as one of the most prominent "hawks" in the U.S. State Department regarding African affairs. Nagy served as the U.S. Ambassador to Addis Ababa from 1999 to 2002 (under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush) during pivotal events, most notably the border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, where he played a leading role in mediation efforts. In these exceptionally candid remarks, Nagy emphasized that the Egyptian state possesses a weight in U.S. foreign policy that vastly exceeds Ethiopia's status. He noted that the Trump administration recognizes its vital interests are tied to Cairo, delivering a direct message to decision-makers in Addis Ababa: "I advised the Ethiopians not to put Washington in a position of choice, because the result will always be in favor of Egypt." The veteran diplomat did not hide his frustration with what he described as the Ethiopians' perception of themselves as the "center of the universe," asserting that strategic realism dictates a different reality. Egypt is linked to dossiers that Washington cannot abandon, ranging from Israel's security to the stability of the Suez Canal and the wider Middle East. Nagy also linked Egypt's recent moves in Somalia to the Nile water dispute, asserting that Cairo is utilizing the "Somaliland" and Somali unity files as legitimate leverage to protect its water security. He added that the Egyptian presence in the Horn of Africa will remain a "nightmare" for Abiy Ahmed’s ambitions as long as the intransigence over the GERD continues. Nagy’s "harsh realism" was not limited to Ethiopia; it extended to Eritrea. He shut the door on any bets regarding a shift in relations with Asmara, stating clearly: "I have absolutely no hope of improving ties between Washington and Asmara... President Isaias is a character whose actions are unpredictable. As Meles Zenawi once told me: 'You never know what Isaias will do until he wakes up the next morning and decides for himself.'" He added that Eritrea "seems afraid to step out of its own shadow," predicting that the second Trump administration will face the same frustration as the first. From my perspective, these statements reinforce the conviction that Ethiopia, despite its regional ambitions, remains merely a "local player" in Washington's eyes. Meanwhile, Egypt retains its position as a "strategic partner" whose interests cannot be compromised to please transient allies. Most importantly, when such words come from an expert on Ethiopia's internal affairs due to his tenure there, they constitute a profound testimony that shatters the Ethiopian narrative regarding its perceived regional dominance. All of this raises a legitimate question: If this is the view of the "hawks" in the U.S. State Department, when will the decision-maker in Addis Ababa realize the vast gap between his ambitions and international reality? Full Interview Link: https://t.co/xPCU3Wzwa5