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$BTC 2022-2026 Wave Count Scenario As I mentioned in a recent post, Bitcoin’s breach of $60k last week confirmed that we remain inside the expanded flat correction that started in late 2024. According to my current wave count for the advance from the 2022 low (quoted post), wave (4) has now retraced 53% over 18 months, compared to wave (2)’s 20% retracement in just 2 months. A 2.6x difference in retracement depth and a 9x difference in duration between two corrective waves within the same impulse does not follow the Elliott Wave guideline of equality (or proportionality). This reduces the probability of that count considerably. Because of this, the wave count shown in the attached chart is now more probable. It better satisfies the equality guideline and displays cleaner Fibonacci relationships: - Wave 4 retraced 33.27%, which is approximately 1.5x wave 2’s 22.18% retracement (close to the 1.618 relationship). - Wave 4’s duration (182 days) is much closer to wave 2’s (154 days). - The full impulse from late 2022 to late 2024 [wave (1), 742 days] and the current expanded flat [wave (2), 546 days] also show more balanced durations. - From the all-time high, wave (2) has nearly reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from the 2022 low—a common target for a wave of this magnitude. I’m not particularly fond of this count for two reasons: 1. Unless the entire #Bitcoin Supercycle wave has already completed (low probability), we would still need at least three more major waves to finish the larger structure. This implies we may be in a very extended Cycle. 2. If we are indeed in an extension, my HTF wave count from the 2010 inception may require future refinements. That said, trading and analysis aren’t about what we like or expect—they’re about what price actually does. For now, I’m staying pragmatic: the exact labeling of the HTF structure doesn't matter right now because both viable counts point to a new uptrend once this expanded flat completes (if it's not already completed). The odds of the correction morphing into a complex combination remain low. I will therefore not commit strongly to either count yet. Instead, I’ll let price action unfold and refine the labeling as the market provides clearer signals.