#TeamProjections - Twitter Hashtag

almost 2 years ago

One example, for sure. I often note that I'm on #TeamHeuristics (prefers simple rules of thumb) instead of #TeamProjections (prefers detailed models) based on research showing that simplicity often outperforms complexity in areas of unbounded uncertainty. https://t.co/KjJLzYxNRs

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

almost 3 years ago

There’s no day of the year that I’m happier to be #TeamHeuristics instead of #TeamProjections than the Tuesday after Week 1.

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Chosen E. J Day

@P_Lytics

about 3 years ago

🔮 Pharaoh Analytics is breaking down the NFL landscape! We want to hear from you: which team do you want to see next? Comment below with your pick and let's dive into the data together! 📊🏈 #NFL #SportsData #TeamProjections

P_Lytics's tweet photo. 🔮 Pharaoh Analytics is breaking down the NFL landscape! We want to hear from you: which team do you want to see next? Comment below with your pick and let's dive into the data together! 📊🏈

#NFL #SportsData #TeamProjections https://t.co/r6Udr4QL7M

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

over 4 years ago

#TeamProjections thinks "if Dallas averages X attempts per game at Y yards per attempt and Lamb secures Z market share he'll score Θ fantasy points over the next β years and be worth λ value" and then they all start arguing over their various values for X and Y and so on.

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

over 4 years ago

Had a really good question about why I track consensus rankings the way I do (basically just equally weighting a bunch of different sources rather than up-weighting some sources relative to others). The answer gets back to me being #TeamHeuristics rather than #TeamProjections.

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

almost 5 years ago

@Avalanche_2025 Big advantage for #TeamHeurstics over #TeamProjections. I don’t actually have to envision the path from talent to opportunity to rely on it.

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

about 5 years ago

Heuristics are simple rules of thumb to help quickly and efficiently make good decisions in complex environments. I often say I'm #TeamHeuristics instead of #TeamProjections; projections attempt to quantify the complexity, heuristics attempt to simplify the complexity.

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

over 5 years ago

Gigerenzer's research is on using heuristics, or rules of thumb, to make judgments in uncertain environments. If you've seen me say I'm #TeamHeuristics instead of #TeamProjections, that's what I'm talking about. His Wikipedia page covers it really well. https://t.co/KL3yzirkFR

AdamHarstad's tweet photo. Gigerenzer's research is on using heuristics, or rules of thumb, to make judgments in uncertain environments. If you've seen me say I'm #TeamHeuristics instead of #TeamProjections, that's what I'm talking about.

His Wikipedia page covers it really well.
https://t.co/KL3yzirkFR https://t.co/AnZJZHuXB0

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

over 5 years ago

@DTownsDogs @DLFootball “Will Team X draft an RB or won’t they?” is #TeamProjections stuff. Here in #TeamHeuristics land I don’t really even guess at that sort of stuff. My process is more “guys with that kind of workload as rookies are typically good and good players typically put up points”.

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

over 5 years ago

@jxp5328 #TeamProjections: “How can Ekeler overcome the 18% drop in LA’s projected target volume with a rookie RB a good bet to eat ~12% of the remaining RB pie when as measured by Gini index the QB runs the 8th-most decentralized passing game?” #TeamHeuristics: “Life finds a way.”

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

over 5 years ago

@jxp5328 This is also #TeamProjections vs. #TeamHeuristics confusion. Can’t judge a #TeamHeuristics staple like “life finds a way” by #TeamProjections standards. By using heuristics I’m specifically rejecting the responsibility to find a viable path to the assumed end result.

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

over 6 years ago

@ChiefsAnalytics @EuanDewar Here’s the article that solidified me for #TeamHeuristics: https://t.co/dtj3RbLNHX Felt like #TeamProjections was super well represented and I had little to offer there. Plus heuristic approaches allow me to harness my natural desire to be super, super lazy and turn it to good.

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

almost 8 years ago

@friscojosh Yeah, so I guess that's the crux of our argument. You see this and say "meh, average team". I see this and say "wow, that's an offense I want to buy into". #TeamProjections vs. #TeamHeuristics.

AdamHarstad's tweet photo. @friscojosh Yeah, so I guess that's the crux of our argument. You see this and say "meh, average team". I see this and say "wow, that's an offense I want to buy into". #TeamProjections vs. #TeamHeuristics. https://t.co/LlyRp03bdK

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

almost 8 years ago

@friscojosh If I were to play the #TeamProjections game, I might note that if Kamara gets last year's workload (120 carries, 100 targets) at the average per-touch efficiency of all Saints RBs since 2006, he'd score 238 fpts. That'd land him 8th, 9th, 5th, and 8th over the last four years.

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Adam Harstad @AdamHarstad

almost 8 years ago

@friscojosh This is a #TeamProjections approach. A #TeamHeuristics approach would be "roster talented players with a clearly-defined role in what is without exaggeration the best offense for PPR fantasy RB production in league history."

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