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#TechnicalFriday - September
September is always a difficult, transitional month for forecasting with lots at play on the larger stage.
The stratosphere vortex begins to ramp up, seasonal wavelengths are changing & in the context of a developing Nina we have a further added complication this year.
What did look like an anticyclonic, settled outlook has somewhat shifted in recent runs, the GFS wants to keep high pressure across the UK going forward, the ECM is keen to bring back low pressure.
The reason? The MJO is pushing east & with this we should begin to see a rise in AAM, MJO looks to make a push into phase 5 which for the UK/NW Europe suggests higher pressure (GFS solution), this push eastwards of the MJO however leads to +FT with +MT following & a subsequent rise in AAM. This looks likely to push the GWO into phases 3/4 albeit at a fairy low amplitude, this suggests lower pressure returning to the scene across the UK.
Two opposing signals & seemingly, two NWP models latching onto both of them. Confidence as a result in the outlook going forward is extremely low.
My current thinking is that we will see lower pressure across the UK rather than a strong anticyclone, but perhaps not quite to the extent the current ECM is suggesting meaning changeable weather, spells of rain but also drier periods between any rainfall/showers.
Temperatures generally a little above average with the occasional hotter day (Sunday has potential to reach 30°C, for example).
The forecast for September will likely be an evolving one so further updates/monitoring required.
It's #TechnicalFriday and @dennisfoggia71 has shown us his dashboard🧑🔧! When he's on the bike, he can receive messages regarding:
🔹Opponents
🔹Tyre specifications
🔹Other riders out
🔹Box
🔹Warnings
🔹Lap times
Thanks for the mini tour, Dennis🙂! @MotoGP #AustrianGP #BeLe0pard
It’s technical Fryday, have yourself a nice tall cup of Joe !
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Best traffic day of the year #TechnicalFriday
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