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Updated wobble tracker for #Ian through 9AM EDT this morning.
In general, Ian has tracked NNE since exiting Cuba yesterday. But these small-scale deviations will influence who gets the most intense winds/surge this afternoon.
Expect a rare Extreme Wind Warning in SW Florida.
8:30 PM CDT #Ida #WobblePlot - the center is still moving NNW a bit east of the NHC track forecast.
The corridor of strongest winds continues to progress northward in the direction of Hammond #LAwx where conditions will continue to deteriorate over the coming hours.
8:50 PM CDT #Ida #WobblePlot shows the storm slowing down as it attempts to complete its turn north.
Punishing eyewall winds continue to impact the W shore of Lake Pontchartrain and are headed to the city of Hammond in the next couple hours.
Rough weather continues in NOLA too.
7:30 PM CDT #Ida #WobblePlot - a northward motion seems to have resumed in the last half hour or so following a brief jog to the west.
The storm has likely made its final turn to the N and seems unlikely to make much additional westward progress.
Core now en route to Hammond.
#Ida #WobblePlot update - looks like our recent wobble back to the left a bit is continuing for now.
The inner core is passing between Chackbay and Paradis currently with the corridor of strongest winds extending from Garyville to Laplace/Norco to Bayou Gauche.
6:20 PM CDT #WobblePlot shows #Ida trying to regain some westward motion, but the storm is generally moving more north than northwest.
This may mean winds in Baton Rouge won't be quite as bad as feared (if current trends hold) but will be worse for points east towards Hammond.
Intermediate #Ida #WobblePlot update w/5:50 PM CDT data shows the inner eyewall wobbling left a bit to get back in the middle of the outer eyewall which seems to be continuing N or even NNE.
For most, it's the outer eyewall's path that matters.
Western Pontchartrain get ready!
Updated #WobblePlot for #Ida shows a last-minute swerve well right of the forecast track.
This puts the eastern edge of the outer eyewall back on track to brush New Orleans.
Folks especially just west of town need to be hunkered down and ready for extreme (100mph+) winds. #LAwx
If there's any ideal time for @JackSillin's #wobbleplot now is just about the perfect time for it π¬
No wobbles of significance to report with Ida last hour.
The biggest trend I noticed making this hour's #wobbleplot (shown below) is the shrinking of the outer eyewall.
This is a typical part of the ERC process, though it's odd to see it happen before the inner eyewall decays
With #Ida now in radar range of New Orleans, and thanks to @burgwx's hard work, we can now construct a better #wobbleplot for Ida's final approach.
The storm is basically running right down the center of the 5 AM NHC cone, but has drifted a tiny bit right over the last hour.
4:05 CDT 8-28-21 #WobblePlot:
#Ida holding steady to the right of almost all forecast guidance, even our mentally-adjusted guidance from earlier today.
This seems to be due to changes in how Hurricane Nora is influencing an upper-level low SE of Texas https://t.co/84hZwA6bXw
Looking at the last 5 GFS forecasts verifying at 18 UTC today, this upper low has trended stronger & less negatively tilted, perhaps influenced by outflow from Hurricane Nora. I suspect this trend is responsible for Ida having a bit more of a NNW motion, rather than NW. (2/2).
I made a quick & dirty map of possible #Ida tracks w/ Louisiana population density. (Black lines are NHC, blue are @JackSillin's #WobblePlot.)
The NHC track is basically the best-case, from a population-density perspective. Any deviations, especially eastward, would be bad news.
Do not like the trends with #Ida today. Intensifying faster than I thought. Also, may be tracking a bit east of where it should be.
Again, we do not want an eyewall replacement at this point as that will broaden the windfield, causing higher surge
2:05 CDT 8-28-21 #WobblePlot:
#Ida has continued to wander farther right of EPS guidance and other track forecasts.
The system should swing a bit to the left this eve as it gets closer to a ridge over NC, but I think it's time to seriously consider eyewall impacts in #NOLA.
1:05 PM CDT 8-28-21 #WobblePlot:
#Ida is wobbling a bit between our hourly check-ins, but is holding pretty steady overall. Wandering closer to the E edge of the guidance envelope.
This might shave off a few hrs it could have had over the Gulf, but puts the core closer to NOLA.
12:05 PM 8-28-21 #WobblePlot update shows plenty of wobbling, last hour it was to the west this hour to the north.
But the general trend remains pretty steady. #Ida is still tracking along the eastern edge of forecast model guidance.
Checking in on the #WobblePlot roughly an hour later, #Ida is still following the NE side of the ensemble guidance envelope.
I've penciled in the mental adjustment to ensemble guidance I've been making in light of these trends.
The core may get rather close to New Orleans.
During Laura last year, I cobbled together a little visual to monitor trends in the storm's track and distinguish steady trends from short-term wobbles.
Well the #wobbleplot is back for #Ida. Satellite fixes suggest the storm remains towards the eastern edge of track guidance.
Trying to figure out the best way to bring back the #WobblePlot for #Delta.
Map projections don't seem to line up quite right on @Weathernerds between satellite and EPS but it's pretty close. Here's an initial look at Delta's current center relative to fcst: right in the middle
Admittedly the #WobblePlot fell a bit by the wayside this evening but here's an updated version with the latest radar fix.
The storm has continued the trend of wobbling a smidge east of projections.
Making a beeline for #LakeCharles #LAwx (or a little west of the city)
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