Added a new section to Weathernerds to host demo videos and limited case studies:
https://t.co/wns8sgTUJ5
The "Severe Storms" video discusses tomorrow's forecast:
https://t.co/sZhfHZQVJk
I'll build out the video page over the coming weeks.
Be safe tomorrow!
#Severe#wxtwitter
Pretty impressive short term spread in the ensembles for Sinlaku. Big implications for Guam. AI-based GDM-FNV3 much farther east… Not making a forecast; just making note so we can return to this afterwards.
Pretty impressive short term spread in the ensembles for Sinlaku. Big implications for Guam. AI-based GDM-FNV3 much farther east… Not making a forecast; just making note so we can return to this afterwards.
@JaydonShawwx the HFBI tracker jumps from Octave to the disturbance NHC currently marks as 60%, which also develops in the outer domain of the Octave run. Why it rockets all the way to cat5 in the HFBI output is still odd tho... 🤔
The layer steering plots on Weathernerds show the evolution of the flow around Imelda nicely. If it hadn’t been for Humberto carving out a path through the upstream ridge, the flow likely would’ve stayed SSErly over Imelda and led to poorer outcomes for the US East Coast.
@ECMWF I'm getting "Access denied: 530" for wmo:essential requests at ftp://diss.ecmwf.int/ ( or in the browser at https://t.co/MDrrrEHrzm )
Has the login info changed?
@stormchaserjs@AndyHazelton A couple of points for clarity:
GenCast does a bias correction on the TC intensity forecasts.
FNV3 actually computes its TC intensity forecasts with AI in a separate step from the model fields. ie, it’s not just a tracker being run on the output fields.
Former NHC Branch Chief James Franklin shared these verification plots tonight from all publicly available models for Hurricane Erin. @GoogleDeepMind (GDMI) crushed it, even besting the consensus aids. We'll see if this holds the rest of the season, but color me impressed.
Alright, Google Deep Mind tracks are live. Ingest code is still pretty raw so bear with me if there are issues. Also, I switched to an "Ensembles" drop menu now. Thanks to the GDM team for their phenomenal work!!!
Coming soon (probably tomorrow) to Weathernerds: Google Deep Mind AI track forecasts (FNV3 & GenCast). These are proving to be pretty useful for genesis, track, and even intensity forecasting.
@stormchaserjs Not yet 🙂 Once they start providing the raw tracker output it will be added. I don’t have the compute resources to run the tracker myself on that ensemble set 🙁