Top Tweets for #leastwrong
@EVCurveFuturist I've not been the only #fruitloop on uptake of batteries and electric vehicles and stationary storage over the years
@AukeHoekstra
https://t.co/dkJ2U9AyOG
And my model's various projections collectively have been the world's #leastwrong
Just a refresh on this - I've not been the only #fruitloop on uptake of batteries and electric vehicles and stationary storage over the years
@AukeHoekstra
@janrosenow @CarbonBrief @IEA Some of us have had it covered
Here's my @FSS_Au projections from 2018 and updated a few months ago in 2025
https://t.co/5AIVeY8SLd
Only, as we electrify everything, there will be more
Plus these showing wind and solar capacity, generation
Key challenge projections to grasp growth curve launch point
Solar I claim #leastwrong
EVs bit harder
Graph deceptive, arguably not far off:
My 2015 projection for 2020: 7.8m BEVs
Occurred 26 months late 2023
No one expected covid & supply chain delays
2025 will be year for EVs
I'm actually currently reviewing my previous @FSS_Au projections back a decade, and comparing to 2024 data
(I challenge others in claiming to be a futurist to do so)
I have for sometime claimed to be #leastwrong (check the hashtag) - on average, I am
https://t.co/5AIVeY8kVF
Side by side of model projection - changes from 2018 to 2025:
Oil fell faster than projected
Coal more robust (but about to shift)
Gas ± as projected
Renewables growth much faster
Nuclear less robust in decline
Faster renewables hastens decline of fossil in next few years
That renewables growth is all because of wind and especially solar growth - and coming battery tsunami
It's ok, I'm not crazy
And our @FSS_Au global projections have been #leastwrong
https://t.co/Ev9fMYMYZm
Our Future Smart Strategies projections of solar have been within 20% actual solar deployment since 2012 🤔
Actually, ignoring first 2014 projection for 2025, we're within 10%😎
Also, our bullish projections were mostly too low🤯
#leastwrong
@FSS_Au
https://t.co/CpMn0r0M2t
That renewables growth is all because of wind and especially solar growth - and coming battery tsunami
It's ok, I'm not crazy
And our @FSS_Au global projections have been #leastwrong
https://t.co/Ev9fMYMYZm
Our Future Smart Strategies projections of solar have been within 20% actual solar deployment since 2012 🤔
Actually, ignoring first 2014 projection for 2025, we're within 10%😎
Also, our bullish projections were mostly too low🤯
#leastwrong
@FSS_Au
https://t.co/CpMn0r0M2t
Our Future Smart Strategies projections of solar have been within 20% actual solar deployment since 2012 🤔
Actually, ignoring first 2014 projection for 2025, we're within 10%😎
Also, our bullish projections were mostly too low🤯
#leastwrong
@FSS_Au
https://t.co/CpMn0r0M2t
Solar energy has consistently been underestimated.
Today, it adds more capacity/yr to global grid than any other source in history.
If trend continues, solar will deliver more electricity generation/yr than any technology before it.
Graph from @NatBullard - great newsletter
In 2016, China's 13th 5 year plan commited to reduce emissions
In 2020, China's President Xi commits to 'emissions peak before 2030'
Well 2024 before 2030, yeh?
6 years early
Imagine?
I did, but then, that's my job
#leastwrong
(I would've handed in my baggy green if I hadn't)
@cormacDublin @leRaffl @JJanegle yes, TAAS has long held promise
In 2018 we didn't have line of sight on covid
And we were also expecting autonomy to come faster
But on the whole, our estimates from last decade still have been the #leastwrong
https://t.co/edMUBC05nE
My #EVs update
Future for cars all #electric
#Lithium
Plugin hybrids #PHEV already eclipsed by battery electric #BEV
Last call on combustion engine + hybrids 2025
#DumbCars swap to #FutureSmart as tech like #selfdriving converges
& car ownership changes
#CarShare #RideShare
Australia end of 2024 has 34 battery facilities
Capacity: 4,504MW/ 7,510MWh
770GWh sent out in 2024
Est. > 350,000 homes with batteries end 2024
Me in 2018 on necessary cascade of battery tech steps to drive down cost of storage
RMI figure on same
#leastwrong
More than 4million homes in Australia (almost 40%) now have solar PV installed on their roofs!
Installation rates are slowing a little, but capacity growing faster as more solar is installed per installation
@nukeadvocate word is 'huge'
dude, which part of 'batteries' don't you grok?
RMI 2024 graph on necessary cascade of battery volume driving down cost of storage
Me on the same in 2018 - 7 years ago
#leastwrong
China factories made 800GWh+ batteries in 2024
Just one year
https://t.co/9skRBYwtTr
@IEA Me, #leastwrong, 2017
In the race to build new energy
#wind fast
#solar faster
& #batteries will be faster again
https://t.co/kAYGKxxYk9
In the race to build new energy
#wind fast
#solar faster
& #batteries will be faster again
#Coal has started a fast exit
#auspol
A “tidal wave” of big batteries and record amount of new solar and wind are joining forces to drive down electricity prices and deliver Australia’s target of 82 per cent renewables by 2030
Solar was the earthquake
Batteries are the tsunami
#leastwrong
https://t.co/mi821GKtco
#solar earthquake rocks energy
Triggers battery tsunami
#Tesla #PowerWall to transform energy
https://t.co/kSsTl711OM
Peeps said we were cray cray 🤪
Some still do🤔
Yes, 4 years ago, our @FSS_Au projection a little generous
We weren't expecting covid
Nor the fallout in supply chains
#LeastWrong
https://t.co/e3PH7cZYc0
China's Battery Production Capacity 8.6TWh by 2028 https://t.co/Nw5lXTmIP3
Terror factories
Wait, that's not right
(Conjugates the latin word for go)
TeraFactories
Over 3 terawatts (3,000GWh) battery factory capacity now in global pipeline
100s of gigafactories, mostly for cars
China builds a gigafactory a week
Rest of the world 1 every few months
@yicaichina 4 years ago in Jan25
Peeps said we didn't know what we were talking about
Some still do
Yes, our projections a little over - admittedly we didnt' really anticipate covid, not the fallout in supply chains
Allowing for that, we at @FSS_Au #LeastWrong
https://t.co/e3PH7cZYc0
Terror factories
Wait, that's not right
(Conjugates the latin word for go)
TeraFactories
Over 3 terawatts (3,000GWh) battery factory capacity now in global pipeline
100s of gigafactories, mostly for cars
China builds a gigafactory a week
Rest of the world 1 every few months
Australia can easily reach <real zero> by 2035 through renewables growth and electrification
Today likely my last speech to #AllEnergyAU
Come hear the evidence, and the controversy
I'm not always right, but I've often been #leastwrong
Room 217, 3.25
https://t.co/opCkjw6qM4
I'll be at #AllEnergyAU 23-24 Oct 24 in #Melbourne presenting on
Reaching real zero by 2035 through renewables growth and electrification
https://t.co/WzKt5XuFPP
Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.
The best way to predict the future is to create it.
— Peter Drucker
@FSS_Au
#leastwrong
I identify as a futurist
My pronouns are Told/You/So
China >50% penetration #EVs (BEVs + PHEVs) total vehicle sales
Automotive sector now 10% China GDP!
https://t.co/llTCd0ipEZ
China now world's biggest car exporter
China still increasing exports of EVs, batteries, solar
@elonmusk We've @FSS_Au aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than mostly right
https://t.co/v3mGTqQXnq
Not everyone gets the future right
But some get it less wrong
Here's a graph of aged @IEA forecasts compared with my @FSS_Au #leastwrong projections against actual
And some other comparisons here
https://t.co/WmWPwTbz6i
In any tech changeover,
there's new tech entry,
and old tech exit
My old 2018 #RealBigThings explainer still useful today
Real Big Things #24 23Nov18 - the future of #stuff
Much mostly right, largely #LeastWrong
Full vid https://t.co/cqKrCN7YvZ
@BridieEV Add a dash of covid-led supply chain turmoil + determined & effective campaign of FUD, and I'll take 2024 as #leastwrong
Me 2019:
https://t.co/3GsAvKIlee (tho that story lost to internet erosion)
These links work tho'
https://t.co/Kx7FY0TQPl
https://t.co/GxHv4dnFiQ
+ new graph
Electric cars will be price competitive with petrol by 2023: Professor https://t.co/M8eSetVDGc via @watoday @ProfRayWills
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