Top Tweets for #ptc19
0z run tonight will be the moment of truth on #PTC19. With recon data pumped into the models we should get a better idea of the atmosphere in the west carib. We would then be able to compare the satellite observations as the storm goes into DMAX overnight.
SPC has added a day 4 and 5 severe weather risk for portions of central Texas, this would be late Sunday into Monday. A messy storm mode/QLCS looks the most likely, as better moisture return from the Gulf seems apparent since #ptc19 may run aground in Central America/Mexico.
06z intensity even lower for #PTC19. Models now have it barely at tropical storm strength. The trend is our friend.
Important to understand the famous last words of the biggest track uncertainty echoed by the NHC 10pm advisory. Steering currents will collapse over the next day or so. Leaving #PTC19 to drift until the ridge rebuilds. Let's watch it.
Important to understand the famous last words of the biggest track uncertainty echoed by the NHC 10pm advisory. Steering currents will collapse over the next day or so. Leaving #PTC19 to drift until the ridge rebuilds. Let's watch it.
@rushtropicalwx Might not even see Sara. The way the models are trending #PTC19 might just be the next on a growing list of Potential Tropical Cyclones that failed to get named. Crazy to think AccuWeather is selling a fake forecast track for a storm that might not be certain.π€¦π½ββοΈ
Not expecting much from #PTC19 as current trajectory seems to be on course for direct land interaction soon. Thankfully It will not be able to use its environment being over land.
Models trending more westward tonight for #PTC19. Even the GEFS ensembles have fewer solutions going unscathed through the Yucatan channel. Still not a formed cyclone though so models will be more erratic. Stall expected near Honduran coast over the weekend.
November 13, 2024 at 11:45PM #PTC19
π¨ Disturbance Forecast to Strengthen: Life-Threatening Flooding Likely! ... https://t.co/fw46HsFic0 via @YouTube
#PTC19 #Sara #wxtwitter #Tropicswx #TropicalUpdate
Latest forecast track for #PTC19
Scenario 2 for #PTC19
Called it several days ago with #PTC19. GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro have been trash this season at underestimating ridging near and around South Florida. Best not to trust a global models output beyond 2-3 days coming from someone who got anxious and worked up over Irma (2017) and Dorian (2019). Euro-AI on the other hand has been spot on all season long with track well before an invest is declared. South Florida is just one lucky duck!π #FLwx #WxTwitter #TropicsWx
Seen this kind of signal numerous times this season only for it to shift/change once at the very least an Invest is declared. Debby, Helene, Milton, and Rafael all come to mind, so hold your breath and donβt get excited over this!π
Iβm certain this will change. #FLwx #WxTwitter #TropicsWx
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