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The longer I work in human performance, the more I think workload only makes sense when discussed in context.
This paper argues that workload alone is not the issue. The key point is that “the acute:chronic workload ratio is a greater predictor of injury than either acute or chronic workload in isolation.” In other words, injury risk was better explained by the relationship between what the athlete was doing now and what they had been prepared for over time.
In this paper, the ratio meant:
• 1.0 = this week matched the athlete’s recent training base
• Above 1.0 = this week was higher than that base
• Below 1.0 = this week was lower than that base
So if an athlete averaged 10,000 m per week over four weeks, then did 12,000 m, the ratio was 1.2. If that same athlete suddenly did 20,000 m, the ratio was 2.0. That is the kind of spike this paper was concerned with.
To me, that is the practical takeaway. Chronic workload is not automatically the problem. The bigger concern is poor programming or poor progression that creates a spike the athlete was not prepared to tolerate. Readiness is not just feeling fresh. Real readiness means building enough meaningful work over time so the athlete is prepared when the real demand shows up.

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