Top Tweets for #theOrcTriangle
#TheOrcTriangle #1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine️️ #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWarNews
Related: https://t.co/eujgTd0RCP
Tomorrow, I will publish a long detailed thread about the ukrainian middle strike. I mapped more than 1 000 strikes since january.
I start getting tired and every time i open X I see that geolocators (@moklasen @99Dominik_ @neonhandrail... thanks to them !) found new destroyed trucks for the map...
I will put everything throughClaude to have detailed statistics later, I still have 13 days of march with tons of geos to add...

@nickreeves9876 @TrentTelenko #1pageAssessUkrWar #TheOrcTriangle #ukraine #ZapDonetskFront
Related: https://t.co/g86hkd0mNe
#1pageAssessUkrWar #TheOrcTriangle #ukraine
A @nickreeves9876 question for @TrentTelenko 😀How many trucks a day use that route? How many would need to be hit to introduce severe Russian LoC blockage on the #ZapDonetskFront ?
Let's say 20 supply trucks per day (weighted mid point based upon composition on chart right) to supply a Russian BTG...per 100 battalions...2,000. Seems like a lot of truck traffic. Can they make two trips a day? No idea...
The route is the LOC in #TheOrcTriangle running between Sevastopol and Mariupol indicated by the chart below from @clement_molin .

@clement_molin @NonaMikhelidze How many trucks would Ukraine need to hit per day to have a significant effect on the Russia's military supply lines?
#1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine️️ #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineWarNews #TheOrcTriangle
Related: https://t.co/bK5WNaYBNZ
This morning, a continuous fid a videos from key roads in russian 🇷🇺 occupied territories allowed a large number of new geolocations.
I have now mapped 125 trucks hit on key roads, mostly in may, with more than 80 destroyed.
🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️

@TheStudyofWar #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkrOffensive2026ZAP #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Ukraine #UkraineWarNews #TheOrcTriangle
Related: https://t.co/XGgjUky36T
The BILD is reporting one in 20 Russian trucks making a round trip under under these new Ukrainian drones is being destroyed *PER TRIP*⬇️
@TheStudyofWar #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkrOffensive2026ZAP #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Ukraine #UkraineWarNews #TheOrcTriangle
Related: https://t.co/VxNDXjqg3C
Russians complaining that Ukraine's new longer distance capabilities for small drones has enabled them to approach fire control over the primary land route from russia to Crimea.

@TheStudyofWar #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkrOffensive2026ZAP #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Ukraine #UkraineWarNews #TheOrcTriangle
Related: https://t.co/g9l9yypRFo
Rybar reports on Ukrainian successes around west Zaporizhia:
The enemy is increasingly attacking deep into Russian territory, striking at logistics centers. The air defense system often works in Melitopol, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces launch drones, including aircraft-type ones. And recently, there have been new reports of attacks in the area of Mariupol. Ukrainian formations are consistently and clearly working against the logistics of the Russian Armed Forces.

#1pageAssessUkrWar #UkrOffensive2026ZAP #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Ukraine #UkraineWarNews #TheOrcTriangle
Very good to see #theOrcTriangle (Kherson, Melitopol, Sevastopol) under growing logistics pressure according to @TheStudyofWar (tweet below). A prime goal of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was opening up the land bridge to Crimea.
MORE: Ukraine’s ability to conduct drone strikes against moving targets over 100 kilometers from the frontline, in areas where Russian forces previously were able to conduct logistics relatively risk-free, will likely achieve partial effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI) that degrade Russian forces’ ability to conduct future offensive operations, or defend against Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian forces have been intensifying their mid-range strike campaign against Russian GLOCs and military assets in occupied Ukraine since late December 2025 and have markedly increased the intensity and frequency of such strikes since March 2026, and will likely continue to do so. Intensified and sustained Ukrainian BAI efforts at operational depth may support future Ukrainian counterattacks, such as those that liberated large portions of Kupyansk in November 2025 and over 400 square kilometers in southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts in early 2026.

#1pageAssessUkrWar #UkrOffensive2026ZAP #UkraineNeverSurrenders #Ukraine #UkraineWarNews
Decent vid (below) from Global Capital regarding recent fight in the South on Russia's land bridge to Crimea: part of the #TheOrcTriangle - something I've been obsessing on since fall of 2022. You can hit that hash tag to go down the rabbit hole I fell into. A chart regarding #TheOrcTriangle from DEC 2022. Tokmak was in sector 2: key logistical hub on southern front (the Big Salami).
A few other charts: one from SEP 2022 - upper right...Russian OOB of Omaha sector showing 22 brigades/regiments - 8 of those decent units (naval inf, VDV, spetsnaz).
Today? 11 and no decent units - map bottom left. Tossed in a terrain map bottom right.
War in the south dramatically swings in Ukraine's favor when (not if) it eats the Big Salami (#Tokmak)
https://t.co/A6xRP27Fxy

#theorcTriangle #KhersonLiberate #ktoBSFdestroyers #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine️️ #UkraineWar #KerchBridge
Ukrainians hit Kerch bridge again (tweet from @DefenceU below).
Back in 2022, I began posting about The Orc Triangle (image left): Kherson, Sevastopol and Melitopol. Russian's three great victories of the war have been:
1) The initial offensive out of Crimea that resulted in a land bridge and snagging ZAP oblast
2) Manipulating NATO / USA into slow walking aid to Ukraine
3) An assist in electing a Useful Idiot in the USA twice.
The first victory - snagging the Orc Triangle - and holding it, means the war won't end until it is liberated - or Ukraine accepts Russian aggression and the loss of that big chunk of territory.
Ukraine liberated the first part of triangle, Kherson, during the fall of 2022 in a hard fought, whip smart campaign. Ukraine managed to scatter the BSF (Black Sea Fleet - image right) through innovation & grit. Counteroffensive of summer 2023 to liberate Melitopol failed.
Ukraine managed to cripple another critical component in The Orc Triangle with the truck bombing of the Kerch bridge. However, Russia repaired it. As long as the Kerch bridge exists, ZAP cannot probably be retaken. So, encouraging, but mixed results in The Orc Triangle.
It will be another critical intel/special force coup if Ukraine has managed to put the Kerch bridge out of operation again. Maybe someday it sets the stage for liberation of The Orc Triangle.

The Security Service of Ukraine has carried out a new, unique special operation and struck the Crimean Bridge for the third time — this time underwater!
The operation lasted several months. @ServiceSsu agents planted explosives on the supports of this illegal structure. And today, at 4:44 a.m., without any civilian casualties, the first explosive device was detonated!
The underwater pillars of the bridge supports were severely damaged at the seabed level — thanks to 1,100 kg of explosives in TNT equivalent. As a result, the bridge is now in critical condition.
#TheOrcTriangle #1pageAssessUkrWar #KtoBSFdestroyers #OBMtriangleArty
Interesting comments (quoted tweet below) by Budanov regarding Crimea. Been a series of those.
Taking Crimea (which is a part of The Orc Triangle...chart below left) is really about closing its line of communication (LoC)...consistent with Ukraine's BH Liddell Hart indirect approach strategy (that worked very well during Kyiv/Chernihiv and liberation of Kharkiv oblast...and Kherson).
Six primary components to liberating Crimea:
1) Neuter the Black Sea Fleet...Ukraine has almost accomplished this...still some work to do
2) Neutralizing air space over Crimea... A50s getting pop'd is related to that factor (plus a few others). Ukraine making good progress on this item lately
3) Winning the 40 km > 300 Km battle space. Good progress in this space, but, still some resistance to supplying Ukraine longer range strike weapons.
4) Eliminating the Kerch Bridge: not accomplished yet...but that is a function of item 1 and item 2.
5) Eliminating rail line through ZAP oblast. #UkrOffensive2023ZAP was about that...getting to #Tokmak and beyond. Ukraine failed at that task in the summer 2023. Renewing that offensive depends on NATO aid...with the USA component held up by MAGA Repubs in the House of Reps ( #PutinAmericanCollaborators )
6) Significant SoF/partisan operations in The Orc Triangle.
I think all six components are required to liberate Crimea - assuming little tsar not deposed and Russian army continue to happily act like zombies and not mutiny.

Kyrylo Budanov promises "a serious operation in Crimea". He says a lot of people living there feel like they've been abandoned by Ukraine, but this is not the case.
#1pageassessukrwar #TheOrcTriangle #StopRussianSupplyTrains
Guess we're going to need a renewed line of analysis regarding attacks on Russian Lines of Communications (LoCs); both within the occupied territory and Russia itself. Going to need a decent spreadsheet.
I first initiated analysis regarding Ukraine hitting LoCs on APR 11, 2022 (chart left). That pop'd back up with a rant (chart bottom right).
#TheOrcTriangle thread (chart upper right) NOV 2022 was an extension of trying to understand how Ukraine could pursue BH Liddell Hart's indirect approach: the thought being Ukraine needed to close 3 gates to recapture the south:
Kherson [liberated]
Melitopol [objective of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive]
Kerch bridge [closed, reopened].
Within that context, there were the attacks on BSF (Black Sea Fleet)...which were successful - BSF fled (that which wasn't sunk) back to Russia and Ukraine re-opened the Black Sea.
Ukrainians continued to hammer occupied Crimea during 2H23...which brings to attacks within Russia...
Ukrainians have conducted a number of operations trying to bring the war to Russia, sabotage war production/economic activity [ex: recent hit on St.Pete oil terminal] and impede rail network supplying occupied territory.
Recently, Ukraine has extended its air defense well into Russian airspace and planes have been dropping.
I am very curious regarding how Ukraine can ramp up strikes on Russia over the next few months: will watch it closely. 😀
![HerrDr8's tweet photo. #1pageassessukrwar #TheOrcTriangle #StopRussianSupplyTrains
Guess we're going to need a renewed line of analysis regarding attacks on Russian Lines of Communications (LoCs); both within the occupied territory and Russia itself. Going to need a decent spreadsheet.
I first initiated analysis regarding Ukraine hitting LoCs on APR 11, 2022 (chart left). That pop'd back up with a rant (chart bottom right).
#TheOrcTriangle thread (chart upper right) NOV 2022 was an extension of trying to understand how Ukraine could pursue BH Liddell Hart's indirect approach: the thought being Ukraine needed to close 3 gates to recapture the south:
Kherson [liberated]
Melitopol [objective of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive]
Kerch bridge [closed, reopened].
Within that context, there were the attacks on BSF (Black Sea Fleet)...which were successful - BSF fled (that which wasn't sunk) back to Russia and Ukraine re-opened the Black Sea.
Ukrainians continued to hammer occupied Crimea during 2H23...which brings to attacks within Russia...
Ukrainians have conducted a number of operations trying to bring the war to Russia, sabotage war production/economic activity [ex: recent hit on St.Pete oil terminal] and impede rail network supplying occupied territory.
Recently, Ukraine has extended its air defense well into Russian airspace and planes have been dropping.
I am very curious regarding how Ukraine can ramp up strikes on Russia over the next few months: will watch it closely. 😀](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEm8pJlXEAASNsh.jpg)
The crash of IL-76 near Belgorod. The main information about the crash, as well as the reactions of the two sides and analysts.
An IL-76 military transport plane crashed around 11:00 a.m. Moscow time in the Belgorod region. All on board were killed, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said.
Russian position
The Russian Defense Ministry said there were 65 AFU POWs on board who were being transported to the Belgorod region for exchange, 6 crew members and 3 escorts.
"Now apparently the exchange is out of the question," said the head of the State Duma defense committee, Andrei Kartapolov. According to the deputy's version, the AFU deliberately shot down Il-76 to disrupt the exchange.
The Russian Foreign Ministry commented on the crash of IL-76: "The crime was committed by the Kyiv regime, the responsibility will come to everyone."
Ukrainian position
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said it was "clarifying the information."
"Ukrainska Pravda" reported, citing sources in the AFU General Staff, that the IL-76, which was carrying missiles for S-300 systems, was shot down by the Ukrainian military. Later journalists wrote that another source did not confirm this information.
Where was the plane flying to?
Telegram channel "Blatgorod" published a video taken by eyewitnesses of the fall - it is a place in the center of the village of Yablonevo towards the north.
Among the Russian media there are several versions of what happened.
Telegram channel "VChK-OGPU" writes that the plane fell immediately after takeoff from the airfield of Belgorod.
At the same time, the exchange of POWs was supposed to take place on the border of Belgorod region, writes Shot. However, the Il-76 was flying in the opposite direction, noted Ukrainian OSINT analyst Skrynka Pandori.
According to his data, the downed board numbered RA-78830 flew through Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea and Iran, disappeared from radar near Syria, and then appeared over Belgorod.
All indications are that it was bringing weapons from the East. No indication yet that there might have been prisoners,
- writes the analyst.
Also edition of "Pepel" state that the IL-76 was moving in the direction from Belgorod; between the place of the alleged missile attack and the place of the fall - a little more than a kilometer.
Bild military expert Julian Röpke believes that the Il-76 was landing in Belgorod and crashed after an explosion in the air.
#1pageassessukrwar #TheORCtriangle #PutinAmericanCollaborators #OBMtriangleArty
A big deal (@Tendar quoted tweet below). Also, when you toss in the recent missile interception rates. Also, when you toss in the routing of the Black Sea Fleet.
If Ukraine can negate Russia's previous extreme naval advantage and Russia's previous advantage in stand off weapons in the air...couple that with Ukraine's arty platform advantage (chart left) ...and drones...and some F16s, good things may be ahead for elimination of the Orc Triangle (chart right from last year...always a humbling experience seeing what one posted a year ago...there was progress in sectors of Southern Front...just not was hoped for).
Of course, this assumes fixing the #putinAmericanCollaborators issue with NATO aid: Ukraine needs more shells and platforms...a lot more to reinforce its hard one success to date. Issue there is in the MAGA House of Crazy (aka House of Representatives) and Budapest (aka little tsar's Orban).

Last night Russia lost with high certainty a Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control plane over the Sea of Azov. Russian channels focused in aviation confirm the loss. The plane costing around 350 million USD was vital for air asset coordination in the entire region.
In addition a Russian Ilyushin Il-20M was also hit in this area and signaled mayday, including the attempt for an emergency landing in Anapa, Russia, as well as the request for ambulances. There is no information that the plane arrived at the destination but even if then it was certainly severely damaged.
The cause for both incidents are still a matter of speculation, but the fact that two valuable Russian birds got hit at the same time and the same region, make enemy fire the most plausible explanation.
#Ukraine #AzovSea

#TheOrcTriangle #StopRussianSupplyTrains #StrikeRusRRSupply #Streinikov
Agree with @jurgen_nauditt (quoted tweet below). Closing Russian LoCs (specifically railroad lines) was critical to stopping Russian offensive capability early in the conflict. Posted a few bits of analysis regarding it (charts below).
Russian position in Crimea and Southern Ukrainian is HIGHLY dependent on a long, thin, Russian RR line. Will be great to see it finally closed, when NATO supplies enough strike platforms and ammo to do that.

These russian trains bring tanks and ammunition to the front in the south of Ukraine every day - to kill Ukrainians.
If we destroy the Crimean bridge with Taurus, this would no longer be possible.
In May 2023, the Ukrainians officially asked for #Taurus to be delivered - since May 2023, only one man has been blocking the delivery - Olaf Scholz.
He doesn't tell the Ukrainians or the Germans the reason.
And the trains keep going.
#TheOrcTriangle #UkrOffensive2023ZAP #1pageassessukrwar
It's all connected (repost of @Osinttechnical item below). 3 points in the triangle (chart bottom left from last NOV) of Ukraine's plan to liberate Southern Front (including Crimea) using a BH Liddell Hart indirect strategy: slow, steady, smart and firm push.
Black Sea Fleet has been toast for months. Ukraine continuing the mop up. Good luck to Russia supplying Crimea without a land bridge, Kerch bridge or fleet.

Appears that Ukrainian forces have successfully hit the Sevastopol Shipyard drydocks this morning, likely occupied by a Russian Kilo-class sub and Ropucha landing ship.

@ukraine_map #UkrOffensive2023ZAP #TheOrcTriangle #KtoRomanChukQuiz Romanchuk tosses up a line of crapola to try to hold the recent Ukrainian punch in the area.

#UkrOffensive2023ZAP #TheOrcTriangle #1PageAssessUKRWar ISW reporting 247 VDV in mutiny at Juno Sector, after Russia rout from Staro #1.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the #Donetsk-#Zaporizhia Oblast border and reportedly advanced on July 28. https://t.co/VoxRyKxGlV

@TheStudyofWar #UkrOffensive2023ZAP #TheOrcTriangle #1PageAssessUKRWar @TheStudyofWar also reporting trouble in the Juno sector for Russia: 247 VDV in mutiny (source is UA army).

@TheStudyofWar #UkrOffensive2023ZAP #TheOrcTriangle #1PageAssessUKRWar Yes, UA hammering in the south.

@TheStudyofWar #UkrOffensive2023ZAP #TheOrcTriangle #1PageAssessUKRWar Yes, progress in the south. Omaha and Juno sectors looking to provide more good news soon.

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![HerrDr8's tweet photo. #1pageassessukrwar #TheOrcTriangle #StopRussianSupplyTrains
Guess we're going to need a renewed line of analysis regarding attacks on Russian Lines of Communications (LoCs); both within the occupied territory and Russia itself. Going to need a decent spreadsheet.
I first initiated analysis regarding Ukraine hitting LoCs on APR 11, 2022 (chart left). That pop'd back up with a rant (chart bottom right).
#TheOrcTriangle thread (chart upper right) NOV 2022 was an extension of trying to understand how Ukraine could pursue BH Liddell Hart's indirect approach: the thought being Ukraine needed to close 3 gates to recapture the south:
Kherson [liberated]
Melitopol [objective of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive]
Kerch bridge [closed, reopened].
Within that context, there were the attacks on BSF (Black Sea Fleet)...which were successful - BSF fled (that which wasn't sunk) back to Russia and Ukraine re-opened the Black Sea.
Ukrainians continued to hammer occupied Crimea during 2H23...which brings to attacks within Russia...
Ukrainians have conducted a number of operations trying to bring the war to Russia, sabotage war production/economic activity [ex: recent hit on St.Pete oil terminal] and impede rail network supplying occupied territory.
Recently, Ukraine has extended its air defense well into Russian airspace and planes have been dropping.
I am very curious regarding how Ukraine can ramp up strikes on Russia over the next few months: will watch it closely. 😀](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEm4o4wXIAAQYbT.jpg)
![HerrDr8's tweet photo. #1pageassessukrwar #TheOrcTriangle #StopRussianSupplyTrains
Guess we're going to need a renewed line of analysis regarding attacks on Russian Lines of Communications (LoCs); both within the occupied territory and Russia itself. Going to need a decent spreadsheet.
I first initiated analysis regarding Ukraine hitting LoCs on APR 11, 2022 (chart left). That pop'd back up with a rant (chart bottom right).
#TheOrcTriangle thread (chart upper right) NOV 2022 was an extension of trying to understand how Ukraine could pursue BH Liddell Hart's indirect approach: the thought being Ukraine needed to close 3 gates to recapture the south:
Kherson [liberated]
Melitopol [objective of Ukraine's summer counteroffensive]
Kerch bridge [closed, reopened].
Within that context, there were the attacks on BSF (Black Sea Fleet)...which were successful - BSF fled (that which wasn't sunk) back to Russia and Ukraine re-opened the Black Sea.
Ukrainians continued to hammer occupied Crimea during 2H23...which brings to attacks within Russia...
Ukrainians have conducted a number of operations trying to bring the war to Russia, sabotage war production/economic activity [ex: recent hit on St.Pete oil terminal] and impede rail network supplying occupied territory.
Recently, Ukraine has extended its air defense well into Russian airspace and planes have been dropping.
I am very curious regarding how Ukraine can ramp up strikes on Russia over the next few months: will watch it closely. 😀](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEm3rUKWIAAvC3r.jpg)













