Seth Haskell

Doing energy analysis

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@phl43 I broadly agree with many of the points you make about political constraints But it also makes sense that they are ignored by many pundits who are trying to overcome them. And it's odd to see them cited in defense of the position of the VP who has significant power to remove them

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@phl43 @MaximZiatdinov Why are you dubious of AGI within the next few years? Defined as say, better than 99% of existing workers , AI-aided and not AI-aided, at all purely digital tasks.

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@tracewoodgrains AI is incredible for learning. Probably my main use for it is using it as an active learning aid (and this seems like so far a very underrated use case). Main issue is that it's very self-directed and the people inclined to use it will likely do well in standard ed without it.

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@JosephPolitano This is in line with ~50% capacity additions last year, so no signs of major curtailment yet either!

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@nsundar79 DMed you

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

Me in Petroleum Economist on gas and renewables in India and China

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

More at the link, including a look at coal power in Denmark and how relatively cheap retrofits have kept it playing a big role in Denmark's renewables heavy grid. An example India and China are looking too.
https://t.co/l0BKDKeRA6

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

In spite of huge renewables growth in China last year, gas demand hasn't spiked. This is bad news if you're a believer in gas benefitting from renewables growth

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@pisgahpartners @AllthingsLNG @AnalysisOp Indian gas fleet is almost entirely CCGT plants. But question to consider is who is "you" in this situation. Indian gas plants don't run because gas is expensive and power prices are regulated. More or less gas only runs if government picks up the tab or compels operation.

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@AllthingsLNG @AnalysisOp IND capacity factor on gas plants is c.20% which is low (compare CN at 30% and USA at 57%). But I don't think announcement changes much beyond what is expected from general demand increase. Coal also likely to be forced to run. Keeping plants open that would have shut for maint.

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

Link:
https://t.co/SQIJJkboDS

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

Helped put together the new digital Energy Map of India for ONGC. Hopefully other researchers find it useful.

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@seb_kennedy @SStapczynski I agree with the point about being better than coal not being enough, but idea of gas as worse than coal for emissions due to methane escape is significant part of thinking behind current LNG pause in the US. This is relevant for policy!
https://t.co/SlkhgTcGuf

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

Feb tends to be lowest month for gas consumption in India and Aug the highest with about 21% more consumption relative to Feb. Data from 2019-2023 but excluding 2020 and 2021 for pandemic reasons. Jan as second highest month for consumption is surprising to me. Source is PPAC

[Naveen @nsundar79]

Expect India gas usage to spike up now for the summer and hope it will be reflected in the PPAC data
cc: @AllthingsLNG @haskelltseth
@ira_joseph
https://t.co/EzjcLgvbJk

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@HeYiyong @ira_joseph This is a due to lack of investment (sanctions) creating inefficiencies in gas production and limiting new production but also, like many big producers, low domestic prices means consumption is crazy high. Iran consumption in 2022 was more than 2x Japan despite only 2/3 pop

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@cbp206 @ira_joseph Good question! My point as regards the OP is that over next 5 yrs renewables are going to be displacing gas and coal faster than gas itself replaces coal. I don’t know how large the hard to displace/firm power coal
power market is though and some small amount ofcoal may linger.

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@cbp206 @ira_joseph Between 1% and 1.5% per year. But I'm not sure how important this is as more power demand likely just means more solar/BESS rather than coal. VREs increasing share of generation by >2% a year for last 5 years and speeding up. At cost of gas in some places but coal in many others.

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@HeYiyong @ira_joseph Space of delayed cargoes should mostly show up as spot under producers marketing arm (eg Cheniere Marketing). If it's short run profitable for LNG producers (which is true as long as price is higher than HH+shipping+<$1 for pipeline and opex) I would expect cargoes to keep coming

[Seth Haskell @haskelltseth]

@HeYiyong @AllthingsLNG Yeah, that's the calculation I'm working with although lots of wiggle room there depending on type of fertiliser and efficiency of process. Could be more like 475 cubic meters or 650 cubic meters per tonne +30%. I imagine russian fertiliser on the higher end because gas so cheap.