hemant

Views are strictly personal.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@rwac48 @narendramodi's impressive routine of outfit changes, and seemingly unlimited sort of a wardrobe begs the question: do our men in uniform have the budget, or indeed the leisure, for such rigorous vanity?

[hemant @hcspeaks]

Three innocent Indian citizens lose their lives, and instead of accountability, we get a PR tweet thanking President Trump. The complete lack of empathy is staggering..
@narendramodi

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

Thank you, President Trump, for your warm wishes.

I look forward to working with you to further advance the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, for the benefit of both our nations and the world.

@POTUS

@realDonaldTrump

[hemant @hcspeaks]

Spot on breakdown as always.
19:1 leverage on FCNR yields ~15% ROE, but floating 1M SOFR means clients must swap to fixed.
Post IRS costs (~5.5%) - thin margins.
Crucially, 2013 was a macro buffer; today it’s funding a leaking BoP boat. Smart, but high derivative risk for UHINWs.

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

With everybody's permission, let me explain the FCNR arithmetic:

A. Current rates being offered: ~6% USD, 3 year deposits ( eg, HDFC bank etc, although AU is offering 7%)

B. Private banks are the only entities that give funding for such instruments. ( PSU Banks don't because they don't have a private banking practice.

C. Funding rates are still getting worked out but it does look likely that ICICII Bank will be the lead Bank in this particular round. In 2013 it was right at the fore front but BNP was also there.

Why?

Because the banks that are aggressive in raising such deposits need to have, a private banking business, and also a very large local India lending business.

This is absolutely critical: it helps a lot if the lending Bank for the overseas leg has a large local India business, eg, ICICI bank.

Because when you are raising such USD deposits you simply cannot get adequate avenues for lending in the international markets.

You need to lend to the domestic Indian market and for that you need the loan franchise. BNP no longer has this edge. HDFC bank has its own overseas issues, AT1 Credit Suisse bonds etc.

D. A critical think to be kept in mind is of course that when you get leverage to invest in such deposits, private banks typically offer you only one month floating rates.

Nobody gives you three year fixed rates because that is much too risky from a rate perspective.

Therefore there is an interest rate swap ( IRS) involved, from floating to fixed USD.

So, given the current interest rates structure globally, base rate would be 1 month SOFR , which is around 3.75%.

3 year IR swaps may be around 4-4.5%.

Now a private bank will put a credit cost on top of this for the non resident, eg, around 1%.

This is simply a judgement on the credit risk of the borrower. Then on top of that the private bank will put a profit spread of around 0.5%.

All in all, I would imagine that the final cost to the non resident Indian would come to around 5.5% or thereabouts, after considering the interest rate swap and the other costs.

If indeed the leverage given is 19:1, as was the case in 2013, the return on equity for the borrower non resident will come to ~15%.

That's pretty good.

So it should be able to gather decent capital.

But do keep in mind that in 2013, the capital raised like this was literally a buffer.

Overseas flows were healthy right throughout the taper tantrum period ( barring one month).Full year was +10 billion.

This time this capital is going to fund a leaking boat, not act as a buffer.

~$40-50 billion would be around 3-4 months of F2 outflows.

Critical difference this time vs 2013.

Separately, yesterday,F2s sold a lot less... because D2s bought a lot less. The lower May,June MF inflows are preventing F2s from selling more.

A slowdown, even outflows, in MF flows would be a gift from God for our BoP.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

The economy might have structural fractures, but hey, at least the RBI spent billions today to give the rupee a temporary 70-paisa facelift. Real problems can wait, the optics meanwhile need to look great!
@FinMinIndia @RBI

[Tamal Bandyopadhyay @TamalBandyo]

INR strengthens beyond 95 level. Local currency traded at a high of 94.96 a $ before closing at 95.00 — gaining 70 paisa up vis-a vis last close. This is INR’s
Strongest level after 8th May. Market sources say heavy intervention by RBI

[hemant @hcspeaks]

Nothing says 'we have everything under control' quite like needing supersonic fighter jets to deliver biology papers.
#Incompetence #NEET

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@ANI Honestly, incompetence at this scale should at least require a license..

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@AxisBank truly amazes me.
I don't think I have ever seen an OTP come like this.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@Jhunjhunuwala_ Possibilities include @AIADMKOfficial breaking up and merging with @TVKVijayHQ. Congress MLAs would join TVK only if TVK wants an alliance with BJP for 2029 LS, otherwise it will be status quo. Other allied parties may see their MLAs jumping ship.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

Best scenario for #TVKVijay‌ : @INCIndia joins #TNGovt. while @arivalayam provides support from outside. @AIADMKOfficial faction will get absorbed in @TVKVijayHQ.
@BJP4India stays outside. ADMK is finished, DMK doesn't share power so doesn't get blamed if Vijay doesn't do well.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

Regardless of where you stand politically, India's eroding global standing and re-hyphenation with Pakistan are the legacy of one establishment's blunders.
History will be less kind than I'm being today.

https://t.co/5FeIPL5yBu

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@RShivshankar Oh you sit down now.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

What postering. A country needs either of the three to flex - a huge economy, powerful military, or great moral fibre.

Pakistan lacks all three but they have been acing diplomacy since decades. A masterclass for international policy students -a lesson if we want to draw one.

[Shehbaz Sharif @CMShehbaz]

With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.
I warmly welcome the sagacious gesture and extend deepest gratitude to the leadership of both the countries and invite their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes.
Both parties have displayed remarkable wisdom and understanding and have remained constructively engaged in furthering the cause of peace and stability. We earnestly hope, that the ‘Islamabad Talks’ succeed in achieving sustainable peace and wish to share more good news in coming days!

@realDonaldTrump
@JDVance
@SecRubio
@SteveWitkoff
@SEPeaceMissions
@drpezeshkian
@mb_ghalibaf
@araghchi

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@CallingCas17512 @ShivrattanDhil1 New Chandigarh is in Mohali (SAS Nagar), Punjab. The author has aptly tagged the government that runs the state.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@1shankarsharma Reality may disagree with you, but let’s not disturb the narrative.. ;)

[hemant @hcspeaks]

Can't help but notice how quickly these #Bollywood celebs are sharing their #Dharmendra tributes.
It makes me wonder if they've been perfecting their eulogies for ages! 🎬

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@RShivshankar Why is it that you end up so often making a joke out of yourself, @RShivshankar..

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@DrNimoYadav अक्ल आएगी, कुछ लोगों को पहले, कुछ लोगों को बाद में आएगी, पर अक्ल आएगी!!
बस इतना फर्क है।

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@GurugramDeals The government forgot buying Gold themselves thinking they would be able to easily pay the price for the metal on redemption.
With such gains, GOI sits on masisve losses of their own making.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@SheetalPronamo Please read history of Nepal, and may be you will stop embarrassing yourself like this here. Seriously, in these times it isn't even difficult to read about a country - books/articles everything is available over the internet.

[hemant @hcspeaks]

@1shankarsharma How stupid is this..
Back to 1970s India.. Everything was a conspiracy - videshi haath.. Crazy.