Lockdown Jesus

Sapere Aude

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

More Signal

[Mel Mattison @MelMattison1]

BTW, I'd recommend following this guy @HE4DEYES if you follow me. He has consistently followed me for months and probably made a nice chuck. Whatever he's doing, he's sifting through the s*it on X and figuring out where the signal is.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

US crude just hit $73.
📉Down 39% from the $119 March peak.

The market has officially priced the war as over.

Let me tell you what $73 oil is actually pricing in:

✅ Hormuz fully reopened and flows normalized
✅ Qatar LNG back at 100% capacity
✅ SPR being replenished
✅ Tankers freely transiting the Gulf
✅ Inflation falling, demand recovering

Now let me tell you what's actually happening:

❌ PetroChina couldn't find a tanker to load Iraqi crude this week
❌ Freight rates are still 3x pre-war levels
❌ Hormuz traffic: 29 ships in 5 days, 62% running dark
❌ Qatar capacity: 17% damaged for 3-5 years
❌ US SPR: lowest since 1983, still drawing
❌ Jeff Currie: normalization "not until year-end at the earliest"

The financial market is pricing a political headline.

The physical market is pricing a broken supply chain.

$73 oil with empty SPRs, crippled Hormuz traffic, and damaged Qatari infrastructure is not a relief rally.

It's the biggest disconnect between financial and physical markets I've seen in this crisis.

And disconnects this large don't close slowly.

Full analysis in my article.
Link in the comments 👇

Image Source: Bull Theory

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@Rory_Johnston haha

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@KobeissiLetter Dont worry the next peace deal will fill up the tanks.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US commercial crude oil inventories are reaching critical levels:

Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest commercial storage hub in the US and the pricing point for WTI Crude, dropped -1.6 million barrels last week, to 20 million barrels, the lowest since 2014.

This marks the 8th consecutive weekly decline, totaling -8.3 million barrels.

As a result, Cushing now holds less than 2 days worth of US crude production, approaching the minimum level at which the facility can continue pumping oil efficiently.

Once inventories fall below ~20 million barrels, extracting crude becomes technically difficult and more costly, while oil quality can deteriorate due to water and sediment.

Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to ~340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, after 172 million barrels were released to contain war-driven fuel price increases.

US oil inventories down to levels rarely seen in modern energy markets.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@chkarx83 @calvinfroedge us will e fine most likely. Europe and Asia will get hit.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Re: the US-Iran MOU and the all-important Hormuz clause (5), critically important element missing from copy signed yesterday (right) vs the draft seen by Bloomberg on Tuesday (left)

"Pre-war volume" pretty important parameter!

Tehran didn't actually commit to any traffic level

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@Rory_Johnston they cant commit pre war., because its impossible to reach that anytime soon. maybe im q1 2027.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@MindOfDiscoDan @calvinfroedge Thats what a bad entry and bottom feels like. Hang in there we are bottoming.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@calvinfroedge Seems like bottom is in. One oil bull afer the next capitualting.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@zerohedge Zero hedge working with the Admin to Jawbone Oilprices.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@Rory_Johnston Thats cool and all but how will the get the oil out 😂?

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@zerohedge Flood????

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@nicrypto He surrendered havent you heard?He didnt want the stock market to go down. He said that last night.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@PrognosticApex @tmgpi what the hell is that?

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@Tyler_Neville_ have poor people every wone without a violent revolution? I think you know the answer.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@StanphylCap all eyes on the peace deal that will fix the world.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@DBatDad @chrismartenson Ypu forgot to mention that money will be lost in the process, because anybody that runs a profitable business doesn’t grow enough 😉.

[Lockdown Jesus @HE4DEYES]

@JoshYoung Shorts exiting. the market is 124 mb short and cushing hit tank bottom. June 22 contract expiration.

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

March 9: "We're now totally independent of the Middle East. We don't need their oil."

April 1: "It doesn't really affect us. We have so much oil. We have tremendous oil and gas, much more than we need."

June 17: If I didn't agree to the MOU, we "would run out of reserves at about 4 weeks...we would really run out, and there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it."