10Y now past 4.5%.
Robust earnings growth has helped, but will no longer save the day in 2H if these rates and higher oil/commods persist past mid July.
Little else matters, as other thematic growth themes are already being aptly priced in.
This was the set-up prior to conflict on both demand/supply fronts, but was naturally exacerbated.
Conventional optimism around <4% yields and a housing recovery in 2026 was foolish.
Commodity boom = higher yields until demand destruction.
Higher for longer was/is not a fad.
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🇺🇸 U.S. Oil & Gas:
The U.S. sits on 46 billion barrels of proved crude oil reserves, with 60% of that locked in dense underground rock.
The Permian Basin, which stretches across West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, pumps out 6.6 million barrels a day on its own, more than every OPEC country except Saudi Arabia.
Zoom out, and the U.S. is the single largest oil producer on the planet at 13.6 million barrels a day, out-producing both Russia (9.1M) and Saudi Arabia (9.3M).
On natural gas, it isn't close:
America produced a record 43.2 trillion cubic feet in 2025, roughly a quarter of the world's supply and more than Russia and Iran combined.
The U.S. sits on world-class reserves and out-produces every petrostate.
This was the set-up prior to conflict on both demand/supply fronts, but was naturally exacerbated.
Conventional optimism around <4% yields and a housing recovery in 2026 was foolish.
Commodity boom = higher yields until demand destruction.
Higher for longer was/is not a fad.
These are exactly the “times” we long prepared for, and have looked forward to. A focus on resilience and offsetting correlations. Position for headwinds and eventual tailwinds become the windfall…
US stocks are facing a growing risk of a sharp selloff this year as the escalating war in Iran hurts global markets, according to veteran strategist Ed Yardeni, updating his outlook for what he describes as “fast-moving times” https://t.co/qJPiN3tZJk