Updated performance into EOM. Everyone's smart in a Bull, so remaining humble is key. Missed some great opp in the room but still working to fish for myself.
"Give a man a fish, he eats for a day...Teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime." @TheTradeFlow
A skilled trader is not someone who is good at reading the market.
A skilled trader is someone who accurately produces the actions the system requires without adding unnecessary meaning.
・Enter when the conditions are met.
・Exit when the conditions break down.
・Pass when the conditions are not met.
・Take the loss when the rules require a loss.
・Do nothing when the rules require doing nothing.
They do not add their own opinions such as,
・Does this look like it will win.
・Am I scared.
・Do I want to make it back.
・Is this time special.
・Should I wait a little longer.
Many people think a skilled trader is someone who can make special judgments.
No.
A skilled trader is someone who does not add special judgment.
The more you add your own opinion during live trading, the further you move away from the system.
A skilled trader is not using the system skillfully from the outside.
They are functioning as part of the system.
Yes, the United States has the most progressive tax system in the world. The top 1% pay 40% of taxes, the bottom 50% pay 3% of taxes. We can make it even more progressive by zeroing out taxes on the bottom half. It’s a small amount of the total tax revenue but very meaningful to people in this group.
IF CLAUDE/AI IS SO USEFUL, WHY ARENT PNLS GOING UP?
I just made an important point on the @smbcapital call. You can’t go a day without reading tweets about traders using Claude. For 6 months now, Claude has been the talk of many trader calls. Yet from what I’ve seen, it’s not translating to pnl for most traders.
Why?
Because almost always, more data and information is NOT the constraint. The traders that outperformed in April did so because of their systems and execution.
It isn’t that Claude and AI shouldn’t be used or isn’t at all useful. But AI and Claude can become a distraction AWAY from the actions and changes that actually matter and translate into PNL.
If I were a betting man, Claude might have improved workflows for traders, but net, it has probably reduced trader pnl through distraction away from what matters.
The highest-level traders all handicap themselves on purpose to make themselves MORE profitable.
Here's how…
We interviewed 10 of our traders.
The most profitable ones all said the same thing, and it’s not what you’d expect:
They keep their options accounts small.
These are people with 7-figure portfolios… trading with just $25–35k.
Why?
Because they don’t need more.
That’s enough to generate returns and then move profits into common stock (if you know how to deploy it effectively).
Rolling profits into common stock allows you to be more patient, allow for drawdowns, and to let your wins ride.
This isn’t just math.
It’s psychology.
Smaller accounts force discipline.
They make drawdowns survivable.
They keep you from getting cocky and blowing up account after account.
Once you’re profitable, the game shifts.
It's less about making money…
And more about not losing it.
As we often say in TFL:
Your primary job isn’t to chase big wins.
It’s to eliminate really bad days.
Because big drawdowns don’t just hit your account...
They wreck your decision-making.
Our team was pounding the table that the US has geographical, resource and rule of law advantage that will be hard to beat. The Rest of world can outperform the US for short periods but this war was the perfect catalyst to mean revert back to US outperformance.
Layers upon layers upon layers of $NVDA today in TFL.
It was only a matter of time for $NVDA to get love again.
Flow was clear as day piling into calls.
@themissinglinks called it out and accounts are straight up multiplying today.
The whole team @TheTradeFlow called for $NVDA to be next to make a break up this morning. Going for the jugular. Have 8 layers of calls the first 7 all grandslams. Sorry @michaeljburry we are running this to 220 by 4/29.
If you didn’t have this gamma profile before Tuesday’s open, you missed the roadmap for a 220-point SPX move. Deep negative gamma doesn’t pin price — it accelerates it. Miss the profile, miss the move.
Great week in @TheTradeFlow Last 6 months were tough to navigate.
Key insights from @themissinglinks "size when conditions are great and if you gotta play when they are not size like a piker"
Conditions have been great last few weeks and we are sizing. $SPX $NDX $MSTR