@econ_713 I agree on the overall financial positioning reset. But in isolation, why would HFs inflation hedge short rates with long crude? Aren't both positions directionally same way?
@markfny@Big_Orrin@TraderCommo Both Argus and Platts peg Saudi prod ~80-140kb/d below March quota w/ no prod increase from Feb. Acc to Vortexa Saudi/UAE exports have stagnated since Oct-21.
I put little weight on it until there are more data points, but there is maybe an alt explanation for the OSP strategy.
@Rory_Johnston Their +630kb/d Q422/Q421 Russian production forecast also seems on the high side given Russian communication. Looks like EIA Q421-Q122 est is already beyond actual output.
@markfny@SPGlobalPlatts@SPGlobal Thank you, will be interesting to follow going forward.
I saw the Enverus founder commenting on it here, although not providing a conclusive answer:
https://t.co/eWjf5bM0OG
@HFI_Research Very interesting. If the adjustment factor is "replaced" by a too high production estimate, the accounting problem at least partially remains. Do you have an idea of the cause? Could it be related to plant condensate blending, like in 2019, as natgas production has increased?
@Samir_Madani@anasalhajji Great color. Are those ~1.4mb/d (?) of current exports crude only, or including products? I've seen others pegging crude exports closer to ~1.0mb/d.
@markfny Much appreciated! I can't help but feel that the call-on-shale exit to exit in 22 will be higher than 0.7-0.8mb/d. So very interesting insights on the OFS activity increase required to achieve that, given the bottlenecks you mention. Time will tell.
@markfny Thank you! That makes sense. To follow up, is that ~12.3mb/d exit-22 estimate based on the same 275 frac spread count staying constant, or does that need to grow further? If so, to what level aprox?
@crudegusher They (KOC) wrote in their own annual report that their sustainable capacity per 31.march was 2.579mb/d, as I understand it excluding the NZ. Surprisingly transparent imo. Even including their share of NZ at max cap, still ~2.85mb/d vs ~2.96mb/d quota from May 22.