Heidar Engebret

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@econ_713 I agree on the overall financial positioning reset. But in isolation, why would HFs inflation hedge short rates with long crude? Aren't both positions directionally same way?

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@markfny @Big_Orrin @TraderCommo Both Argus and Platts peg Saudi prod ~80-140kb/d below March quota w/ no prod increase from Feb. Acc to Vortexa Saudi/UAE exports have stagnated since Oct-21.

I put little weight on it until there are more data points, but there is maybe an alt explanation for the OSP strategy.

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@TraderCommo Very interesting! Can you elaborate on that? Why that date specifically?

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@energy_blogger Thanks for the share, do you have the original Bloomberg source/article-link the graph is pulled from?

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@Rory_Johnston Their +630kb/d Q422/Q421 Russian production forecast also seems on the high side given Russian communication. Looks like EIA Q421-Q122 est is already beyond actual output.

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@markfny @SPGlobalPlatts @SPGlobal Thank you, will be interesting to follow going forward.

I saw the Enverus founder commenting on it here, although not providing a conclusive answer:
https://t.co/eWjf5bM0OG

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@lh_barstad Thx! Makes sense to use the >20Y fleet as a proxy, as you say, with adjustments.

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@HFI_Research Very interesting. If the adjustment factor is "replaced" by a too high production estimate, the accounting problem at least partially remains. Do you have an idea of the cause? Could it be related to plant condensate blending, like in 2019, as natgas production has increased?

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@RobertClarke_WM @WoodMackenzie Interesting, thank you. How much of those 2.1mboed will be gas equivalent and how much actual oil?

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@Samir_Madani @anasalhajji Great color. Are those ~1.4mb/d (?) of current exports crude only, or including products? I've seen others pegging crude exports closer to ~1.0mb/d.

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@markfny Much appreciated! I can't help but feel that the call-on-shale exit to exit in 22 will be higher than 0.7-0.8mb/d. So very interesting insights on the OFS activity increase required to achieve that, given the bottlenecks you mention. Time will tell.

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@markfny Thank you! That makes sense. To follow up, is that ~12.3mb/d exit-22 estimate based on the same 275 frac spread count staying constant, or does that need to grow further? If so, to what level aprox?

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@crudegusher They (KOC) wrote in their own annual report that their sustainable capacity per 31.march was 2.579mb/d, as I understand it excluding the NZ. Surprisingly transparent imo. Even including their share of NZ at max cap, still ~2.85mb/d vs ~2.96mb/d quota from May 22.

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@yesar @Jamie__Ingram @Amena__Bakr Thank you for the clarification. Very interesting.

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@Amena__Bakr Does this include all production within the Kuwait sphere? Or is it excluding for example NZ output?

[Heidar Engebret @heidenge]

@ACIPartnerhship @mintzmyer Thank you!