Gaurav Dua

Investments Strategy, Equities, Capital Market, tweets on equity market are for educational purposes

[Gaurav Dua @hellogaurav]

🇱🇷 T For Tesla
🇮🇳 T for Tata motors

[Benita Bhatia Dua @benitadua]

Dear @airindia

Your flight is surviving on duct tapes and prayers.

Flight AI129, Mumbai to London.

More rain inside the craft than in Mumbai.

Excellent hospitality from the crew though. Tanishka was especially fantastic.

[Sann @san_x_m]

Her name was Subhadra Kumari Chauhan.

She was born on August 16 1904 in Nihalpur village, Allahabad. At nine years old she wrote her first poem. It was published in a national magazine.

At 16 she married and moved to Jabalpur. At 18 she was pregnant and leading protesters through the streets of Nagpur holding the Indian flag.

She was arrested. She became the first woman satyagrahi to be sent to jail in India.

She delivered her first daughter Sudha safely at home after her release. Then went back to the streets.

In 1942 the British came for her again. Her husband had already been arrested. She had five children. The youngest was a toddler with a cleft palate who could barely speak.

She prepared her eldest daughter to look after the younger ones. Left food for them. Then walked to prison carrying her sick youngest child in her arms.

Inside jail she gave up her own food to prisoners facing harsher punishment. She was released months later with a life threatening condition and underwent immediate surgery.

She later described all of this with humor. She said the garlands placed around her neck on the way to jail were so many that she made a pillow of them in her prison cell. They reminded her of the flowers on her wedding night.

Between arrests, pregnancies, court dates and protests she wrote 88 poems and 46 short stories.

Her most famous poem was Jhansi Ki Rani. The one every Indian child has read in school.

Khoob ladi mardaani woh toh Jhansi wali Rani thi.

She wrote it about a queen. She lived it herself.

On February 15 1948 she died in a car accident near Seoni, Madhya Pradesh, while returning from a legislative assembly session in Nagpur. She was 43 years old. A mother of five. A poet. A prisoner. A freedom fighter.

Today is Mother’s Day.

Most Indians know her poem. Almost none know her name.

Follow for stories India deserves to remember.

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

India Chased Multibagger Dreams; Real Economy Paid the Price

1. Economic Survey flagged dangers of "over-financialization"

2. 82% youth invest on finfluencer tips (CFA Report)

3. Industry Capex down 26% YoY; Family Offices ranked 3rd globally in non-core deal volume

INSIGHTS:

Economic Survey 2024-25: Warning Drowned in Market Euphoria

a. Survey’s Chapter 2 Title itself warned: “The Cart Is Running Before the Horse” (“Cart” is the financial markets; “Horse” is the real economy.)

b. Tabled in Parliament 14 months ago (31 Jan, 2025), the Survey stated: “Uncontrolled financial sector growth comes with a cost to the real economy. India should ensure a gradual and orderly development of its financial markets.”

c. “When the economy reaches a state of over-finance, the financial sector competes with the real sector for resources (such as skilled labour and capital investments).”

d. “Financial engineering creates complex products whose risks are not known to the average consumer. These products are designed in a way that lenders have no “skin in the game” (no risk)."

e. “Critical Risk”: “Dominance of financial markets and asset price considerations may overly influence public policy, including regulatory policy.”

It means, the whole system promotes stock market as the nation’s growth engine, while the “horse” (real economy) gets left behind.

Private Sector Focus: Promoter Selling, IPOs (OFS), Rise of Family Offices

a. Economic Survey 2025-26 (29 Jan, 2026): “Indian private sector is historically risk-averse, comfortable with technology import & licensing, and has failed to step up the primary engine of R&D.”

b. “In absence of innovation, India risks remaining a “service provider” to the developed world, vulnerable to technology denials and supply chain shocks."

c. Private Sector Capex: Despite record corporate profits, Capex in FY26 was projected to dip 26% YoY (₹6.56T in FY25 to ₹4.89T in FY26). Where is the promoter interest? (Read next point.)

d. PwC Report (Dec 2025): Family Offices in India are rapidly moving into investments outside their core businesses. NexGen of India’s family-controlled empires is “taking a leaf” from global private equity and VC playbook.

e. Indian Family Offices have grown from 45 in 2018 to 300 in 2024 (during years of market boom). Indian Family Offices now rank third globally in annual VC deal volume, behind only the US and the UK.

f. India added 3,000+ new UHNIs (ultra-high net worth individuals) in just one year (thanks to the market boom), creating a deeper pool of “sophisticated investors” outside their core businesses.” (Hurun Wealth Report)

g. Chief Economic Advisor Nageswaran (Nov 25, 2025): “IPOs in India have become exit vehicles for early investors, rather than means of capital investing.” In Apr-Sept 2025 quarter, 55 Indian IPOs raised ₹65K crores. Most of it was OFS. (Buyers were Indian mutual funds and retail.)

Indian Youth: YOLO Trading

a. The Wall Street Journal recently used a phrase: “You Only Live Once” (YOLO trading). It is leading young people to treat markets like a casino. They haven’t seen that stocks also go down.

b. India’s youth have been losing their family savings in F&O trading and chasing momentum stocks. SEBI Survey 2025 showed that 91% traders lost money in F&O. 76% of these participants were “Low Income” traders (annual income below ₹5 lakh).

The system did not educate them, but encouraged them with non-stop T20 World Cup ads featuring celebrities.

c. CFA Institute Survey (Mar 2025) showed India has 3.5 million social media “finfluencers” (financial influencrs). Over 82% of the followers of these finfluencers made investments based on their advice.

d. Average finfluencer age is 31 years, with 60% under 29. Only 2% are SEBI-registered. 59% have commercial partnerships or sponsorships (vested interest). 63% fail to disclose these financial affiliations.

91% are on YouTube; 64% on Instagram; 61% on Facebook. (SEBI Investor Report)

e. CMIE Data: Declining Labour Force Participation Rate (below 40%) indicates many youth have dropped out of employment activity. They are not even actively looking for jobs (LFPR means that).

One must also remember trading activity occurs between 9:15 am and 3:30 pm on weekdays, which are peak hours for work, apprenticeship, and vocational colleges.

f. Nithin Kamath (Zerodha) in 2024: “A whole generation of people were sitting on the fence and thinking whether they should trade or not trade. They have all jumped in.”

ENDPIECE: Lottery-ization of India

“How many of you want to be rich?” Hundreds of hands shoot up at a packed conference hall in Bengaluru. The attendees are responding to Chandan Taparia, head of derivatives research at Motilal Oswal.

“Friends, if you follow this (pointing to technical charts on the screen), trust me, you won’t lose.” He continues: If you win, you can rule the world.”

Hoping to “rule the world,” Anand, a 23-year old who travelled 300 miles to attend the Bengaluru conference, said: “I’m a poor person. But I have a big dream for my life.” – Quoting from Financial Times (July 18, 2024)

@arabicatrader

[IT Unprofessional @it_unprofession]

I'm pretty sure everyone at my company saw this article and now they all think we're in an AI crisis.

We're not in an AI crisis. We use Claude to summarize Slack threads.

But here's what's actually interesting: this whole panic reveals something nobody wants to admit.

Every company in America has been bullshitting about their "AI strategy" for two years.

We all saw the hype. We all knew we had to say something. So we rebranded our existing automation as "AI-powered" and called it a day.

My company isn't special. We're all doing the same thing.

The problem is now the executives actually believe their own bullshit. They think we have "significant AI exposure" because they've been telling investors we're "AI-first."

I just got pulled into an emergency meeting. Six executives asking me to explain our "AI dependency matrix."

There is no AI dependency matrix.

There's Claude for meeting summaries, there's some sentiment analysis in our support tickets that came free with Zendesk, and there's whatever Gmail is doing when it autocompletes my sentences.

But I can't say that in a room full of people who told their boards we're "transforming the business through AI."

So I said we have "distributed AI touchpoints across multiple vendors with no single point of failure."

Which is technically true. We use a bunch of different services that all have AI features we mostly ignore.

The CFO asked if we should "hedge our AI exposure."

I have no idea what that means. Neither does he.

What am I going to do: nothing. Because in three weeks, Anthropic will say something reassuring, the stocks will recover, and everyone will forget this happened.

But I'll have documentation showing I recommended a "risk assessment" that mysteriously never got prioritized.

The funniest part is that half these executives probably don't even know what Anthropic is. They just saw "AI" and "crash" in the same headline.

We're all pretending. The whole industry is pretending.

And articles like this just remind everyone how fragile the pretending is.

[Palak Shah @palakshahjourno]

A Budget With No US Deal in Mind🚨

#Budget2026 Bets on Itself, Not on Washington !!

Written with clear assumption that US Trade Deal will not arrive in time to cushion India in near term

my stry @BWBusinessworld @anuragbatrayo
https://t.co/LpUXbf9NZi

[Gaurav Dua @hellogaurav]

Quarterly net change in active user base of quick commerce players reflect shifting consumer preferences

[Gaurav Dua @hellogaurav]

Mess at @mumbaiairport
@Uber cab drivers demanding extra money over and above the fare shown in app.

Uber staff supporting the unfair demand and encouraging travellers to take private taxi.

@AdaniAirport @MoCA_GoI

[CNBC-AWAAZ @CNBC_Awaaz]

#LIVE | बाजार खुलने से पहले @_anujsinghal और @AshVerma111 के साथ करें #MunafeKiTaiyari | #MunafekiBaat #BusinessNews https://t.co/4ogJE50ux8

[Gaurav Dua @hellogaurav]

Hidden Gems!
Building monopolistic business in high tech space is unbelievable.

[Prasad @theprasad_]

Netherlands is the reason we are able to use AI.

Not the U.S., Not China. Not even Nvidia.

One Dutch company controls the machines that create every AI chip on Earth.

Here's how this one company created a monopoly no one can break:

[CNBC-AWAAZ @CNBC_Awaaz]

#LIVE | ऑपरेशन सिंदूर पर सेना की प्रेस कॉन्फ्रेंस

-कर्नल सोफिया कुरैशी
-विंग कमांडर व्योमिका सिंह
-विदेश सचिव विक्रम मिसरी https://t.co/IkUFBpCMSC

[Business Today @business_today]

Should you cut small & mid cap exposure now? Gaurav Dua’s warning amid trade war escalation

Watch: https://t.co/4mvZrBciO5 | #SmallCapStocks #StockMarket #InvestmentStrategy #LargeCapStocks #FinancialAdvice

@sakshibatra18 | @hellogaurav

[Business Today @business_today]

Gaurav Dua on why Indian defence stocks may shine amid global uncertainty

Watch: https://t.co/4mvZrBciO5 | #DefenceStocks #TradeWarImpact #TrumpTariffs #IndiaMarkets #BEL

@sakshibatra18 | @hellogaurav

[Business Today @business_today]

Trump and Tariff turmoil: How will they impact Indian Auto stocks and equity markets?

Watch: https://t.co/GmcgBYzOC6 | #BusinessToday #TrumpTariffs #AutoTariffs #MarketVolatility #IndianMarkets

@sakshibatra18 | @ICICI_Direct | @hellogaurav

[Business Today @business_today]

BTTV Share Market LIVE Updates: Sensex Nifty Live | Business & Finance News | F&O | Stocks To Invest

Watch LIVE: https://t.co/a8rTz5ZfaP | #BusinessToday #MarketToday #MorningLive #MarketOpeningBell #MarketOpening

@sakshibatra18 | @ICICI_Direct | @hellogaurav | @arpit_beriwal

[Gaurav Dua @hellogaurav]

25 years of #NIFTY returns📈

Very interesting and encouraging data.

But there is a catch. Nifty returns hide the severe pain and price damage in smallcap space in 2012/2013 followed 2018/2019. Add to this, the effect sector cycles on retail portfolios gives the reality check.

[Deva 🕉🚩 @Urs_Deva___]

"Never bend your head Always hold it HIGH"- Shivaji

The Undefeated King Who Fought For Country and Culture Until His Last Breath🛐

Remembering The Hero Of India Shri Chatrapathi Shivaji Maharaj On His Birth Anniversary.. 🙇‍♂️🙇‍♂️
#ShivajiMaharaj #Chhaava

[Porus Bhatt 🇮🇳 @porusbhatt]

@BloodDonorsIn Hi all
Blood required for Dialysis patient at Dadar,
Patient name Meenal Ajgaokar
Contact person name
Mr. Prabhakar Ajgaokar
9892650190
Hospital address
Sushrusha Hospital, Ranade road, Dadar west
Blood group required any. Still they need more Blood Doners.

[Mirae Asset Sharekhan @Sharekhan]

The Nifty has taken a 12% hit! Trump, tariffs, and market turmoil have investors on edge. What's the next move?

Watch now an informative video from Mr Gaurav Dua @hellogaurav SVP Head - Capital Market Strategy at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

https://t.co/n5GUrJPWQC

#investing #marketcorrection #Nifty #Marketcorrection

[Gaurav Dua @hellogaurav]

Sensex has seen a drawdown of 10-15% almost every year. This time is not different with 12-13% decline from the peak.

But the pain in portfolio is much higher due to skewed exposure to small/microcaps and momentum sectors.

Lesson: Have a balanced portfolio
#StockMarket

[Business Today @business_today]

BTTV Share Market LIVE Updates: Sensex Nifty Live | Business & Finance News | F&O | Stocks To Invest

Watch LIVE: https://t.co/VkwcTHjitj | #BusinessToday #MarketToday #MorningLive #MarketOpeningBell #MarketOpening

@sakshibatra18 | @ICICI_Direct | @hellogaurav | @arpit_beriwal