Henao, CFA

Ingeniero industrial y CFA®
Comparto mis reflexiones y mi cartera
Eres una pequeña alma que sustenta un cadáver

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

The highest quality returns in the stock market come from what I call The Alpha Formula:

➕Willingness to focus on the high-risk/yield curve range
➕Eye for deep value (goods, services, talent)
➕Iron stomach for short-term volatility
➕Hability to separate Noise vs. Signal

✖️Vision to delay Gratification and expand Time Horizon

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@Jason I DON'T HAVE TIME TO CONVINCE YOU, SORRY.

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@Jason “Bitcoin is dead because AI is the future” might be the dumbest take of 2026... and these two morons are going to be spectacularly wrong.

Again.

[darpan (afk) @darpunn]

Anthropic is already cashflow positive damnn

[Austin Lieberman @LiebermanAustin]

The real reason the $NBIS $CRWV $IREN sell-off after the $META news is 100% justified is because it proves that Neoclouds are a temporary solution for the largest customers until the economics make sense for them to build their own.

It doesn���t mean that Neoclouds are unnecessary. A lot of companies will still need them.

However, it does turn them into more of a commodity and begin to put a ceiling on demand.

With that comes a re-rating which is what we are starting to see.

Anyone who denies this is biased. It’s a fact.

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@dividendology Just own both.

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@GaliciaInvestor Buen punto.

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@BourbonCap I like it.

[Bourbon Capital @BourbonCap]

John Armitage is buying more $AMZN and $SPGI also started a position in $META

Good man

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Just finished listening to Jensen Huang with Brad Gerstner on the BG2 podcast

Probably one of the best things you can spend 90 minutes of your time listening to this weekend. Highly recommend.

Some of my takeaways from the conversation

1. The demand for compute will continue to be exponential. He once again cited inference as the biggest reason. Reasoning takes a lot more compute than simply spitting out answers from stored memory of knowledge

2. As more compute is used, the work and answer quality will also be better. This will lead to higher demand for that compute, leading to the exponential cycle that Jensen is referencing

3. The harness and tool usage have been the two biggest unlocks in AI over the last year. AI used to simply be a brain of knowledge. Now it has a skeleton around it that allows it to be useful. It is learning how to use existing tools to do better work without having to recreate tools from scratch each time.

4. The cost of intelligence will fall fairly quickly in the coming years. This will be driven by a combination of more compute coming online and better efficiency of models. No different than Moore's Law. Jensen still believes that the consumption of the intelligence (volume) will more than make up for the decline in pricing

5. The original GPT-1 cost $20M to train. If you train GPT-1 today, that number would be closer to $100. That is how fast the cost of intelligence is coming down.

6. The offset to this has been usage of the models and human ambition to build even better models. Despite cost coming down, usage of models has gone up 1M (x) times since GPT-1.

7. Jensen disagrees that work hours are going to come down. The more you learn, the more you want to do. Human ambitions have always existed to achieve and earn more. The bottleneck was the opportunity to do it.

8. Robotics is entering its ChatGPT moment. Similar to what Elon did with cars, every physical aspect of the world will soon be digitized with software and compute. Every massive corporation will have to reinvent itself as a technology company with AI

9. Safety is a core component of accelerating AI technology. When you think of a car, you don't just think of the engine. The airbags and braking systems are components of this car. Similarly, regulation and safety are core components of AI

10. NVIDIA's share of capex with the Neocloud customers is roughly 80%. With the cloud service providers, it is closer to 40%. Both of these numbers are growing every single year.

11. Even without AI, the semiconductor industry was already on its path to becoming the largest industry in the world. AI is the "X factor" that has accelerated that.

12. Moore's law is over. Before you could wait a year for your transistor cost to become cheaper. Today, if you wait a year, you will pay 2x as much

13. Analyst consensus estimates have been revised nearly 200% higher for future revenue and free cash flows vs. this time last year. Despite that, the stock is only +20%

14. Analysts questioned the need for general-purpose chips vs. custom chips. The reason that Jensen remains focused on general purpose is because it is fungible. Fungible = lower risk, which matters a lot when you are putting hundreds of billions of dollars to work

15. Global compute infrastructure spend was roughly $1T/yr. That old world was the retrieval way of doing computation. Jensen sees this number closer to $10T/yr in the near term, with roughly half of that spent on intelligence capex

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@garyblack00 Wait I heard that before... Flying cars are being commoditized 🤣🤡

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@Linahuaa Wait I heard that before... Flying cars are being commoditized 🤣

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@herbertong I know i’m being way too emotional right now but I would throw all my fucking money directly into Elon’s face this exact second. Take it all. OH MY GOODNESS.

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@Tesla WTF 😱

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@AndreasSteno The market doesn't care when you bought.

And more importantly your cost basis should have zero decision-making weight.

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Here is what is going on with OpenAI/Anthropic:

-OpenAI quickly saw Anthropic’s success at the end of 2025 and pivoted resources to agentic coding

-By April, OpenAI’s products had largely caught up, with positive developer reception of its GPT-5.5 coding agent (the online vibes from top developers were clear then)

-By the July 9 release of GPT-5.6, you could argue OpenAI had surpassed Anthropic in capability. That led to several months in which OpenAI took material share from Anthropic, leading to a growth rate slowdown at Anthropic

-On Sept. 22, Anthropic released a much better model Opus 5.5, which I expect is sparking a rebound in Anthropic's business. And when Anthropic releases Fable 5.5 soon, ARR should re-accelerate into IPO

-OpenAI CFO on Bloomberg TV today said business momentum is continuing in Q4. The confusion surrounding FT’s OpenAI reporting (net effective impression on readers) last week has poisoned the sentiment well where market is largely ignoring every positive OpenAI business data point (which has been EXTREMELY STRONG since July 9)

-Over the next six to twelve months, I anticipate a close back-and-forth for model leadership between OpenAI and Anthropic.

-The business revenue in aggregate for these two frontier AI model companies should continue to be incredible.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for roughly half of the 0.6% CPI increase while rent rose just 0.2% and prices for dairy, meat and medical goods fell.

So to me this hot CPI looks more like an energy shock than broad inflation but if higher fuel costs spread into airfares and shipping then the Fed faces a tougher decision at its October meeting with hiring already slowing.

[Tequesta @TequestaChief]

- Elon tweets $SPCX could be worth thousands of trillions on 10/08
- 7% of shares unlock next day on 10/09
- Red candles next two days

To be clear, I am a supporter of $SPCX and will be an eventually long term “bag holder”…

But you gotta be careful with post-IPO share unlocks especially with trillion dollar low-float IPOs…

Price action as we approach and surpass the 28% unlock after Q3 earnings in early November will be extremely interesting…

I’m waiting until after that unlock before bidding

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

Tweet muy pobre. Y plagado de sesgo de supervivencia. En 2001 la empresa de «calidad» indiscutible en España era una Telefónica de turno, y quien metió ahí sus ahorros... mejor ni pensarlo. Además, en caso de acertar prácticamente nadie tiene la psicología para aguantar 25 años y caídas del 50% en bolsa sin vender en pánicos, que los hay. Y por otro lado: nadie compra un piso al contado. Al apalancarte con un 20% de entrada a tipo decente, si el inmueble se multiplica por 2, la revalorización real sobre tu equity se dispara a un 5x o 6x mientras la deuda se amortiza. Comparar a toro pasado... pues eso puro cherry picking.

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

Waymo tardó 18 meses en poner 300 robotaxis en Austin.

Tesla... 5 semanas.

Eficiencia de costes, escala... Tesla no tiene competencia.

https://t.co/phZnFU2K8U

[Robotaxi @robotaxi]

One month after launch, we've scaled to 300+ Cybercabs serving Austin – an 8x increase in 30 days

[Henao, CFA @HenaoCFA]

@niccruzpatane 👀