@paulg Underestimating the exponential seems such a common class of error that it feels like we should be teaching the intuition behind it in schools with the same importance as multiplication tables
@michaelnovati@gr_oc@GergelyOrosz If you do happen to publish it, I would personally rather read your raw draft, mistakes and typos and awkward phrasings all, than read the version polished with AI
That would be the ruthless improvement tbh
@petergyang It is precisely because it's a cute name that there's more leeway to be intense
If the name was "Gulag Insurance" it would be too on-the-nose for people to willingly do so
@tszzl This is overcomplicating it. All through history and throughout the world people recite the deeds of their greatest ancestors to bolster their own credibility in the present
@__paleologo What would it look like if a company
1) is achieving 10x productivity
2) committed to not laying off people, and instead use them to grow faster
It could plausibly look like Anthropic, who are on track to go from $10b to $100b revenue by EOY 2026
@paulg even if they agreed on that point, there's still the sticking point that in doing so, developers would make money, sometimes lots of money
and you know how many on the left feel about people who make lots of money
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"new jobs will be created to support these growth initiatives and to support the new use cases AI enables"
I think anybody who claims this has to explain why those new jobs could not *also* be done by AI, esp in a situation where AI matches or exceeds human cognition on all fronts
@SystematicPeter@systematicls Why not have it the other way around? i.e. have GPT 5.5 be the programmer directly and have Opus 4.7 just check that the inputs/outputs are right