HerbertSaurugg

(@herbertsaurugg.bsky.social)
Experte für Blackout- und Krisenvorsorge, Präsident der Gesellschaft für Krisenvorsorge (GfKV), systemisches, vernetztes Denken

[HerbertSaurugg @herbertsaurugg]

⚠ #NotfallvorsorgeFreitag
#Vorsorge #krisenfit.jetzt
Bitte in den eigenen Netzwerken weiterverteilen! Vielen Dank! 🙏 Nur gemeinsam sind wir vorbereitet! Weitere Hilfestellungen für die persönliche Vorsorge:
https://t.co/4h3wj7VSxL
https://t.co/xRKGc1zXL8
https://t.co/LF0lRmLNnm

[Pegeldeutschland.de @Pegeldeutschlan]

Beispielloses #Niedrigwasser #Rhein 2026

Der Pegelstand in #Köln fiel nicht nur 28 cm unter den bisherigen Allzeitrekord von Oktober 2022, er lag nun inzwischen 37 Tage in diesem Jahr unter dem Allzeitrekord.
Alle bisherigen Rekorde wurden regelrecht pulverisiert! @WDRaktuell

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🏭 One refinery feeds your car, your fertiliser and your plastic.

Crude oil is worth very little until a refinery splits it.

The first step is distillation, which separates crude into LPG, naphtha, kerosene, diesel and a heavy residue.

Secondary units then upgrade those streams:

🔹 Vacuum distillation recovers gas oil from the residue

🔹 FCC units and hydrocrackers turn heavy oil into gasoline and propylene

🔹 Reformers produce the aromatics that petrochemicals need

🔹 Hydrotreaters strip out sulphur to make clean fuels

What comes out feeds 4 industries: fuels, petrochemicals, plastics and fertiliser.

A US refinery gets 19 to 20 gallons of gasoline and 11 to 13 gallons of diesel from each 42-gallon barrel.

That mix can only be shifted at the margin.

A refinery built for gasoline can't switch to diesel when diesel runs short.

So losing refining capacity hurts more than losing crude.

When a plant stops, diesel for trucks and farms, jet fuel for airlines and feedstock for plastics all disappear together.

This is where we are now....

The world has crude.

It is short of the plants that turn crude into products.

If you want to know more about this, read my latest article👇

https://t.co/iSZnD48qVL

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🇪🇺Europe has zero of the world's 15 biggest refineries.

In a diesel crisis, that leaves it with no bargaining power.

🇮🇳India's Jamnagar (Reliance) leads at 1.36M b/d.

9 of the top 15 are in Asia and the Gulf, and 3 of those are in 🇰🇷South Korea.

🇺🇸US has 4.
🇻🇪Venezuela has 1.
🇳🇬Nigeria has 1 (Dangote).

Europe has none....

Refining capacity decides who exports diesel and jet fuel, and who has to buy them.

In the past few weeks, the exporters have used that power.

🇨🇳China paused fuel exports for October.
🇷🇺Russia's export ban is still in place.
🇺🇸Washington threatened a diesel export ban before the G7 stock release deal.

Europe has spent a decade closing refineries and making up the shortfall with imports, some of it from Jamnagar.

Since January, the EU has also banned fuel refined from Russian crude, which shrinks the pool of suppliers again.

Meanwhile Dangote is taking the West African gasoline market that European refiners used to supply.

Europe's refining gap has become a strategic weakness, much as gas dependence was in 2022.

Capacity isn't output: Paraguaná runs far below its 955k b/d, and Russian refinery runs are down 14%.

And the G7 release only covers about four months.

Should Europe pay to keep its refineries open as strategic assets, or accept depending on Asia, the Gulf and the US for diesel?

https://t.co/iSZnD48qVL

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🛢️🌍 The countries with the most refining capacity spent this week deciding who gets their fuel.

🇨🇳 China has 18.1% of global refining capacity.

🇺🇸 The US has 17.5%.

🇷🇺 Russia has 6.5%.

Together that's 42% of the world's refineries.

Look at what each of them did this week:

🇺🇸 The White House put a diesel export ban on the table, with a 90-day blanket ban among the options.

Washington then told 🇫🇷France and 🇩🇪Germany to release their diesel stocks or face that ban.

🇪🇺 The G7 agreed to release up to 100M barrels of oil and diesel over 4 months.

🇺🇸 A day later Trump took the ban off the table: "Europe has a lot of diesel and they're going to be making a major world contribution... we're not going to be doing the export ban."

🇨🇳 China paused fuel exports for October, and PetroChina cancelled gasoline and jet cargoes.

🇷🇺 Russia extended its diesel export ban.

Now look at who is at the bottom of the chart.

🇩🇪 Germany has 1.9% of global refining capacity, 🇮🇹 Italy 1.6% and 🇪🇸 Spain 1.5%.

Europe can't refine its way out of a shortage.

It has to buy finished fuel from the countries at the top of this list, and those countries just showed they'll hold barrels back when it suits them.

That's the mechanism behind the week.

Refining capacity has become bargaining power.

Whoever owns the refineries decides whether fuel gets exported, and on what terms.

Read headline by headline, it looks like noise.

Read together, it points one way: fuel security is now foreign policy, and Europe is the buyer with the least leverage.

The open question: the G7 release buys four months.

What does Europe use when the next exporter turns off the tap?
https://t.co/iSZnD48qVL

[Alpinwetter | kachelmannwetter.com @Alpinwetter]

#Italien: Bis am 18.10 kommt es in Italien & rund um das zentrale Mittelmeer zu sintflutartigen Regenfällen und es besteht große UNWETTERGEFAHR! Regional sind Erdrutsche und Überflutungen zu befürchten!

Grund: Das viel zu warme Mittelmeer!

/CG
https://t.co/9JcK6hnXQn

[Bjorn Lomborg @BjornLomborg]

Self-inflicted: Europe closed 30 refineries 2009-24

Now diesel is record-high compared to oil prices

https://t.co/AuFNHEPpS2 https://t.co/GCwP6gMaYC https://t.co/QAoyCOR8nY https://t.co/6okqRDOjXq https://t.co/bfyug33gPE https://t.co/Bs2wPXKtbL https://t.co/o0vt4BrJha

[HerbertSaurugg @herbertsaurugg]

Die wahre Gefahr der Energie-Krise. Hörenswert!
https://t.co/V0qZ2xhtsO
#Vorsorge #krisenfit.jetzt

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨Washington is using its diesel as leverage.

The 🇺🇸US has told 🇫🇷France and 🇩🇪Germany to release their emergency diesel stocks or face a possible US export ban.

Reuters cites 3 sources.

-A European source says the ask is 120M barrels over six months, about 660k b/d.

-US officials say Paris and Berlin haven't fully delivered on earlier pledges to release reserves.

"It is in Europe's best interest to work with the United States," one US official said.

- Energy Secretary Chris Wright: "We've lost some diesel exports from the Middle East, although we're restoring those, and we've lost diesel exports from China."

🇺🇸US diesel hit a record $6.53/gal last week, about five weeks before the midterms.

The White House is weighing a 90-day export ban, voluntary limits for refiners and other options.

🇫🇷Macron wants a G7 call and a coordinated release through the IEA instead.

this pressure is aimed at allies.

🇪🇺Europe replaced 🇷🇺Russian diesel with 🇺🇸American diesel and now its new supplier is setting conditions...

The squeeze is coming from every side.

🇨🇳China paused fuel exports today, 🇷🇺Russia has extended its diesel ban and Gulf product exports are low.

full analysis: https://t.co/FUicYhfF8q

[Pegeldeutschland.de @Pegeldeutschlan]

#Niedrigwasser #Bodensee #Dürre #Trockenheit #Rhein

[HerbertSaurugg @herbertsaurugg]

@vtchakarova Es hängt alles vom Wetter ab ... GfKV-Newsletter #23 – Steht Europa vor einer Zerreißprobe?
https://t.co/DpbYEiZWuz
#Vorsorge #krisenfit.jetzt

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

Just in case you didn’t get the message, we’ll likely face gas & electricity rationing (the European Commission recommended to reduce the energy demand) this winter once again. Our energy-intensive companies will be affected, while we’ll be hoping for mild winter. Unsustainable.

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Russian refining, today vs January:

▪️ Runs at ~2.6mbpd as at 26/9/26, down -51%;
▪️ 14 refineries offline, 9 reduced;
▪️ 97 strikes YTD, 17 in the last 4 weeks;

Of the big ones, the few still running are beyond drone range (for now). Ukraine is winning the refinery war. Slava Ukraini!

PS: this is a moving target, never static.

PPS: forget diesel exports for the rest of 2026. Ukraine can destroy refineries faster than Russia can repair them. The rest is nonsense.

[Nic @puckrin]

If that diesel export ban goes into effect, these are the countries that are most exposed.

The ban will have marginal impact on US prices but hit South America and Europe HARD.

It could also even lead to an increase of prices on the US coasts.

This move feels desperate.

[Pegeldeutschland.de @Pegeldeutschlan]

#Rhein Pegel #Köln inzwischen 24 cm unterhalb des bisherigen Allzeitrekordes vom Oktober 2018 der damals 69 cm betrug.

Meine Abschätzung bis 2.10.2026:
pendelnd zwischen 38 und 50 cm.

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Think we get a diesel verdict from the White House early next week.

„Among the evolving set of options under consideration by Trump officials are measures to boost distribution of “dyed diesel,” a red-colored fuel used in agriculture, construction and for other off-road vehicles that is exempt from state and federal taxes, three people with direct knowledge of the plan said.

The White House would also encourage more states to eliminate their state-level excise taxes on diesel ahead of the midterms.“

[Pegeldeutschland.de @Pegeldeutschlan]

Beispielloses #Niedrigwasser am #Rhein
Pegelstand #Kaub jetzt -1 cm.

Meine Abschätzung bis Mittwoch pendelnd zwischen -5 und +5 cm.

Die Allzeitrekorde von Mitte August diesen Jahres weiter stromabwärts werden sehr wahrscheinlich am Wochenende erneut unterboten.
#Dürre

[Mason Hamilton🛢📊⛽️ @T_Mason_H]

The U.S. exports diesel to over 60 different countries. That diesel is used to produce goods that the U.S. then imports. For example, U.S. diesel exports to Chile represents a large share of Chile's domestic consumption. Chile is the world's largest producer and exporter of copper. Cutting off diesel exports from the U.S. puts all these trade flows at risk.

[Pegeldeutschland.de @Pegeldeutschlan]

Beispielloses #Niedrigwasser am Rhein!

Erstmals seit Beginn der Pegelmessungen im Jahr 1880 wird am Rhein-Pegel #Kaub ein Wert von 0 cm angezeigt! Wassertiefe in der Schifffahrtsrinne nur noch rund 110 cm.
Historie des Pegels anbei:

[Pegeldeutschland.de @Pegeldeutschlan]

Beispielloses #Niedrigwasser am #Rhein verschärft sich weiter.

Pegel #Kaub aktuell 3 cm.

Meine Abschätzung bis Sonntag: 0 bis -5 cm.

[Alexander Schatten @alex_buzz]

»Einfache Ordnung lässt sich definieren, komplexe Ordnung muss erzählt werden.«

https://t.co/RKbNs0SAWm