Here for the Fin

Market participant. Swing trades 2-4 weeks. Mortgage lender/home builder

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@0xchainBob @Barchart Not one comment actually knows what happened…they put on a massive rate “hedge” associated with a big servicer acquistion. That fell through, but they kept the hedge on and it blew out on them, losing like $600m. Oak tree came in to bail them out

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@TimmerFidelity Today’s earnings are largely booming from mtm investment gains - strip that out, and earnings growth is still strong but not nearly as impressive

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@KobeissiLetter This is massively distorted from MTM gains on anthropic/openAI etc stakes. While that is AI driven, and earnings are strong, it’s not all margin expansion

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump releases a statement condemning the growing backlash against data centers in the US.

"If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame," Trump says.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says tariffs on all cars, trucks, automotive parts, and steel from Canada will be increased to 50% effective January 1st.

"Canada will be treated like a state no longer," Trump says.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

Warsh:
“Market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit. This is, in my view, a change for the better, & we’re just getting started.”

Bessent:
“We believe that the yields don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals.”

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@KobeissiLetter This is cherry-picking one variable.

Mortgage rates have risen, but NAR’s Housing Affordability Index has been improving: home prices have largely moved sideways while household incomes have continued rising. It’s easier to buy now than last year.

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@MW4Liberty There’s an account for that @WTF_1971

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Japan, Bretton Woods 2.0, and the End of the Carry Era

Bessent’s move toward the New York Fed matters because it signals that Treasury understands the long end is being driven by flows, not by the inflation scare Wall Street keeps recycling. Japan is now central to that story. If Tokyo must defend the yen, the Ministry of Finance may need to sell U.S. Treasuries, and when the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt becomes a seller, the long end will reprice.

That is why this moment looks bigger than a routine currency episode. It has the feel of a new Plaza Accord and the opening phase of Bretton Woods 2.0. Since the 1980s, Japan has sat at the heart of the global yen carry trade, exporting savings, suppressing yields, and helping sustain a financial order built on cheap leverage and central-bank engineering. That order is now breaking down. The end of QE and the coming end of the yen carry trade mean capital markets, not central banks, will increasingly set rates.

This is also why the inflation narrative is so weak. Breakevens remain anchored. Credit markets are not pricing a new inflation regime. Wall Street keeps labeling every rise in the long end as “inflation risk,” but that is intellectual laziness. The real story is Japan, reserve liquidation, and a global adjustment process that has barely been recognized.
Adding to that pressure is Big Tech’s pivot from providing savings to demanding credit. The same companies that once absorbed duration are now issuing debt to finance AI infrastructure, data centers, chips, and power. That is another reason the long end is moving.

The upshot, secular forces are tightening credit conditions, and central bankers need to cut policy rates to help facilitate the adjustment. A global economy hooked on the carry trade cannot go cold turkey. This unwind requires finesse. Bessent is starting that process, but central bankers and Wall Street still need to abandon the Keynesian dogma that treats rise in the long end as an inflation scare!

The deeper shift is structural. America is escaping secular stagnation by running the economy hot through supply-side economics, deregulation, and productive investment. A Warsh Fed would fit that world, because growth would no longer be treated as a policy mistake. Japan, meanwhile, may finally be restructuring both its economy and its geopolitical role. That is why this is not an inflation story. It is the beginning of a new regime.

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@SenWarren Eliminating the debt ceiling is like removing the smoke detector because it keeps going off. The problem isn’t the alarm, it’s the fire.

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@KobeissiLetter @grok what percentage of US oil usage actually comes through the strait?

[WALL ST JESUS (FZN) @WallStJesus]

📌

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@HayekAndKeynes Weird what happened in 1971….

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@GrulkeLamonte @girdley Hopefully one day

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@GrulkeLamonte @girdley I tried taking 2d plans to 3D renderings and all 3 (grok being 3rd) were pretty bad. I even tried workarounds like having it rehash the plan in text based coordinates, and then rendering, and it still put 6 bathrooms into a 2bd/1bath ADU. Proportions and layout were awful too :/

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@GrulkeLamonte @girdley I’ve been curious about using it for that. The image recognition really seems to struggle even with a paid version

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@KobeissiLetter Maybe going all in on OpenAI right before Gemini 3 dropped wasn’t the right call?

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@unusual_whales Remember when people used to talk about moral hazard? It’s not even questioned anymore

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@LoganMohtashami Wouldn't lowering cost of ownership increase buying power and therefore contribute to housing inflation?

[Here for the Fin @hereforthefin]

@unusual_whales If you were buying a house in the early 80's, according to the NAR affordability index it was worse then than it is today. But today is a close second.