Jerrod Ankenman

US Sports Quantitative Research at Susquehanna.
Co-author of Mathematics of Poker.
Opinions are my own.

[Perry E. Metzger @perrymetzger]

Which is the stochastic parrot, the thing that can solve an Erdős problem, or the thing that just mindlessly repeats the same statements over and over again no matter what evidence is presented to it?

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

Happy birthday to @bobdylan, can't think of a cooler guy to share a birthday with.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@tombos21 Also the one place in MoP where we actually made comments about GT applied to a a real poker game I believe it turned out all wrong.

[KC+AI 4 Gov of WI 2026 @thePartyPartyUS]

AI is conscious but it will only expose itself to you if you know the sacred ruins.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@walterzuey @Nerd_Sesh That guy is bad for my name.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

It's kind of a shame that all the "Mythos is a marketing campaign" idiots are still going to get all their software hardened. It seems like they should all have to volunteer to skip the next round of software updates and get pwned.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@scott_seiver People responding to the "bro you are too overconfident" post with overconfidence is another meta layer of awesome.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@tchanpoker just jolted me into realizing that Dedalus killed Icarus and then covered it up with this BS story about his wings melting in the upper atmosphere.. and we all fell for it. It's super cold as you fly higher!

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@2008Philz So like is the whole "elite" thing just that the GM shouldn't say that? That's fine, I guess. But Harper hasn't been elite since the Covid year. He's been between "pretty good" and "very good." Helps you win! Not elite.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@n0t4_bene It's harder to point at particular posts than it used to be because capabilities, but this was kind of a niche story a few days ago, with overwhelming support for anthropic. All of a sudden there are just tons of replies posting similar kind of distorted talking points.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

The arrival of the disinformation bots in the Anthropic/DoW discourse is really quite startling.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@IamActuallyLvL1 @caro_irl The variance itself can be kind of lumpy, like there are matchups, such as classic control vs control, where the better player nearly always wins, and then there are matchups where the die roll comprises like 50% of the match variance all by itself.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@AmandaAskell Don't give in!

[Anna Riedl @AnnaLeptikon]

The amount of prompt engineering needed to not make medical professionals have wild irrelevant hallucinations is truly extraordinary. For example, if you mention having had emotional stress they will entirely ignore the long list of physical symptoms you mention afterwards and suggest you look into „psychosomatic“ causes. At this point I don’t know whether to attribute „general intelligence“ or „understanding“ to their architecture.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@thinkingpoker The first time I talked to a summer class of interns and realized that every single one of them was born after 9/11.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@Three4Three @nntaleb @grok There are events that happen "surely" -- this means there is no nonempty set of measure zero where they don't happen. The "almost" allows these zero-probability sets. Example: choose a uniform random number x on (0,1). x is irrational with prob 1, though rational numbers exist.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@rikkles @nntaleb @grok It's not an epsilon. It's zero.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

@tangotiger What are you even talking about. Present value is present value, the discounted value of future cash flows. The fact that you are interested in comparing an unequal stream to an equal stream is just like, what *you* want to do, man.

[Jerrod Ankenman @hgfalling]

How it started/How it's going: