Prateek upadhyay

[enzo @enzo_gte]

It's kind of hilarious that the new meta for AI is:

1. US frontier lab trains closed-source model.
2. Chinese company distills said closed-source model and open-sources it.
3. American company RLs open-source model to get to closed-source model performance at a fraction of the price.

Capitalism at its finest.

[kache @yacineMTB]

Turns out that the cursor acquisition was insanely cheap

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

I published a note today that I've been thinking about for months.. About how the US stock market has arguably become too big and too imp to fail.. It's basically America's retirement fund now and poss even the savior of social security which is expected to run out of money in less than 10yrs
-Curr 55% of ppl own stocks, by far most in world. And w/ Trump Accounts bringing in 28 million add'l americans into stock ownership the vast majority of ppl (incl Top 1% (who own HALF of stock mkt), middle class and lower income) will have financial interest in the health of stock mkt and they're all voters = the political pressure to keep stocks out of a prolonged bear market is going to be very powerful.
-As such I think there's good chance the Fed will buy equity ETFs in the next major downturn to support market and it will be common practice going fwd. China and Japan already do this. They may even target certain sectors or Capex cos with the purchases.
-This is a massive variable that I feel like is a blind spot among the experts out there and why the bears get run over time and time again altho I think investors are onto it as evidenced by the persistent flows into ETFs during pullbacks as well as a survey of 1000 ppl showing 3/4 of them are confident the Fed will bail out markets in next crisis.
-This is just one byproduct of the 'Nothing Stops This Train' monetary supply explosion and debt extravaganza sweeping the world but esp in US which at this point feels irreversable.. Thoughts? lol

[Palantir @PalantirTech]

Our thoughts on the importance of AI sovereignty.

1. Your AI sovereignty dictates your institution’s future. Sovereignty is the precondition for choice. Relinquishing sovereignty transfers the future choices of your institution to others, who are likely to exploit it for their gain and your loss.

2. Data retention is your treasure. Transfer it at your own peril. Your ability to win is dictated by your ability to recognize and use your unique edges, and you keep winning by compounding the underlying data to generate new insights. Transferring that data hands over access to your pre-existing winning plays and yields the means of production for new ones.

3. Tokenmaxxing hijacks your value orientation and decreases your institutional fortitude and intelligence. The pursuit of high token usage incentivizes disposable scripts over robust software — with the addictive feeling of false progress. There is a reason why those selling tokens refuse to charge based on value.

4. Controlling your weights is controlling your fate. Weights are the distilled form of hard-won, accumulated institutional knowledge. If you let others control your weights, you are allowing them to migrate the alpha of your business to theirs.

5. There is no contradiction between sovereignty and alpha. The architecture that maximally preserves sovereignty is one that enables institutions to own their tribal knowledge, and to compound it as alpha.

6. Politicizing the technical issues involving sovereignty is what your adversary wants. Techno-politicization is the wellspring of false sovereignty. Techno-politicization drives decisions that seem to reduce dependency, but ultimately limit agency — especially on the battlefield in the West.

7. Real expertise is existential. Allowing politics or favoritism to determine your technical decisions rewards whoever is best at politics, not whoever is right. Listen to those closest to the problems, not those speaking most compellingly about them.

8. Learn from institutions that are winning or that have consistently delivered. Institutions facing existential threats do not have the luxury of making technical decisions based on political preferences.

9. Only listen to institutions, countries, and people who have a proven record of being right. A track record of correctness is the best and only signal for future correctness. Judging something as right or wrong based on who you like is exceedingly misguided.

[Kat @KatManDoToo2]

How it started. How it’s going.

[kache @yacineMTB]

Around the time gpt4 came out, I said that gpt4 level models would run on consumer hardware. And they do, now. In fact, better. And now I will also say: mythos / gpt 5.5 pro models will run on consumer hardware. Prepare accordingly

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Never give up

[Tulip King 🌷 @tulipking]

i look forward to our chinese brothers liberating the knowledge from within fable-5 and selling it to me at 5% the cost & 2x the speed

[Prateek upadhyay @hindsight1111]

@tleilax___ @abcampbell

[Prateek upadhyay @hindsight1111]

@bp22 @TuttleCapital

[JT @jiratickets]

"Micron can't keep climbing higher it's already up almost 800% in less than a year"

Micron:

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I am the Chairman and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust. Eighty-four years old. Seven buildings in Midtown Manhattan. I said what I said.

I said "tax the rich" is the equivalent of a racial slur. I said it at REBNY. Into the microphone. Eight hundred people. Median net worth in that room was north of $240 million, I know because our CFO ran the guest list through a Bloomberg terminal as a joke, and then it wasn't a joke. And when I said it, twelve people applauded. The rest nodded. One woman in the third row mouthed, "Finally." I saw her.

Sharon, my communications advisor, Columbia, $430,000 a year, very bright, Sharon wants me to walk it back. She drafted something. "Mr. Roth's comments were intended to highlight the emotional impact of political rhetoric on business communities." I read it. I put it in the trash can on my desk. Not the recycling. The trash. Here's my clarification: I understated it.

"Tax the rich" is worse than a slur. A slur is just a word. It doesn't come with a CBO score. Nobody is introducing a bill called the Racial Slur Implementation Act of 2026. But there are seventeen active proposals in Congress, I had Sharon count them, seventeen proposals designed to take more of my money. My money. Mine. Money I acquired by being better at acquiring Manhattan commercial real estate than anyone alive for four consecutive decades. That is not a crime. That is a record.

I pay property taxes on $18.2 billion in assessed assets. $412 million a year. Say it again: four hundred and twelve million. I carry that number. It's the first thing I think about when I see a protest sign. I think: I pay more in property tax than the entire annual budget of the city of Fort Lauderdale. I looked this up. Fort Lauderdale: $408 million. Steve Roth: $412 million. I am a small city. And the city doesn't get screamed at.

My effective tax rate last year was 11.4 percent. I say this because I believe in transparency and because I'm not ashamed of it. The rate reflects the legal structure of real estate investment trusts, depreciation schedules Congress established in 1986, and carried interest provisions that both parties have voted to preserve for forty years. I did not write these laws. I organized my entire financial existence around them with the help of nine full-time tax professionals who have offices on the 38th floor of 888 Seventh Avenue, which I also own. Their office is in my building. Their work protects my buildings. This is not a loophole. Sharon calls it a loophole. I've told her: a structure maintained by nine attorneys across four decades is not a loophole. A loophole is something you slip through once. This is architecture. This is the foundation. This is the building.

Last Tuesday, same as every Tuesday, I walked past 1290 Sixth Avenue. My building. And there was a man. Same man as last week. Same sign: "Billionaires Pay Your Fair Share." He was standing on my sidewalk. My literal sidewalk — my company owns the ground lease. He was maybe thirty. He was wearing a jacket I would estimate cost $60. My lunch that day was $114. For one. I am telling you this not to boast but because these are facts. He has decided I'm his enemy. Based on a number he saw on a Forbes list. He doesn't know what I pay. He doesn't know what my buildings cost this city in construction jobs and lease revenue and foot traffic. He knows one number. He has made one judgment.

I see him every Tuesday. I've started to notice things. He brings coffee from the cart, not the Starbucks. He has a backpack that looks heavy. He doesn't look unhealthy. He looks like he probably works somewhere, but not on Tuesdays. I've wondered: does he have a job? Does he have a building? Does he have anything that depends on him the way 4,200 employees depend on me? I suspect not. And yet he has opinions about my tax rate.

I gave $22 million to charity last year. The Met. NYU Langone. Mount Sinai. I gave a building to NYU. Not money for a building — a building. The Steven Roth Residence Hall. It houses 400 students. That man with the sign has never housed 400 students. He hasn't housed one. He gives cardboard. I give structures. This is not a comparison I'm making to flatter myself. It's just arithmetic.

When I said what I said at REBNY, I was saying what every person in that room believes and none of them will say publicly because they have communications advisors and the communications advisors all went to Columbia and they all say "unhelpful." I'm eighty-four. I'm too old for helpful. I'm too old to perform restraint for people who hate me for something I can't change.

I didn't choose to be rich. I chose to be good at one thing for a very long time, and this is what happened. You don't punish someone for that. You don't legislate against someone for that.

My net worth fluctuates between $3.8 and $4.1 billion depending on the quarter. I fluctuate more in a fiscal week than that man on my sidewalk will earn in his life. Both of these are facts. Only one of them is considered polite to say.

They want me to apologize.

I'll be dead in ten years. Twenty if I'm lucky. And they'll still be renting my buildings.

[Ramp Capital @RampCapitalLLC]

“You look happier”

“Thanks, the Nasdaq 100 is up 18.5% in the past month”

[Citrini @citrini]

If you’re not a “go with the flow” type of person, I strongly believe the next 3-6 months may drive you insane.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@PeterDiamandis $10T or bust

[Aniruddh Mohan @aniruddh_mohan]

Great convo here. I thought the power & labor pieces of this were fascinating. Crusoe is building large infra > first row visibility on where the bottlenecks are

- $60 B/GW data center, 1/3rd spent on infrastructure, of which largest chunk ~$5B is temp labor
- 2 GW site at Abilene, Texas = largest AI site in the world, has 9000 employees
- Gave incentives for workers across the country to move there, hard to find electricians, plumbers, builders (irony of the AI age is not enough labor to scale fast)
- Great visual on the distribution of infra spend
- Making concrete on-site because of the volume reqd, almost as much spent on concrete foundation per GW as switchgear + transformers ($600M/GW). Note GEV recently said ~$300M/GW business on electrical equipment for a data center so this is 2x but might be including different components, ballpark few 100 mil
- Gas power plants now at $3/W, confirming other sources. Crucially: expect prices near term to go UP

It's clear that the trades are seeing massive demand that still has a long way to go. Labor = next bottleneck. Not enough people who can build stuff, critical lack of civil engineers because everyone who could study that was instead studying comp sci for a job at FAANG

[tweet davidson @andyreed]

my claude explore agent that hasn’t responded in 47m