HLM

I'm disagreeable, rts are fyi and are not my opinion necessarily

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BMarchetich @mehdirhasan "racism" is the all-purpose excuse those at the top of the social hierarchy use to deflect criticism from the bottom,

whether that's israeli jews deflecting criticisms from pro-palestinian voices

or

whites in america deflecting criticisms from pro-black voices

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future * 2 of the 3

that makes wuhan one of the *most likely places* for a pandemic to start

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future you prob don't know this but wuhan has a pop of over 13 million and is the 9th largest city in china

it also sits in the middle of the populous eastern half of china and is a transportation hub, not unlike chicago

so 2 or the 3 main rail lines stop in wuhan

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future and that's about the same distance btwn yunnan and guangzhou, where sars-cov1 started

been there and done that

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future and

markets across wuhan - as well as elsewhere in china - were shut down soon after huanan was shut down

that stopped any possible spread elsewhere

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future re other markets, that's a good point

but even in huanan, there were at most only 2 spillovers that went viral, so to speak

so even with infected animals present, it is not guaranteed a spillover will happen or will become an epicenter

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future and 3 may be a "small fraction" of all wildlife exposures

but it happened in a live animal market in a big city,

a place where pandemics have the best chance to begin

eg, cov1 started in a wet market in a big city (guangzhou, I believe)

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future I just weighed the 3 hyps

3 is most likely

not just for the given reasons

but bc baric is prob wrong about the molecular clock

and the original infection(s) happened in nov-dec,

consistent with 3

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future and every animal from that farm that went to the wuhan market was infected

this is numerically more than the single human worker who went to wuhan

so 3 is more likely than 2

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future btwn 2 or 3, 3 is more likely bc there are more animals than animal workers

and animals are in even closer contact with each other than animals workers are in contact with animals

if an animal gave it to an animal worker, then the animals in the farm were prob all infected

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future eg, blood tests of ppl living near the yunnan caves showed the presence of cov antibodies, indicating prior infections and some natural immunity

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future note: bc ppl in rural areas are constantly exposed to covs (and other viruses carried by animals), they have some immunity, which also helps explain why spread doesn't happen more often, given the likely freq of spillovers

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future the prob wiv even had cov2 is the key point

any serious est of this prob put it at no more than 1-in-10,000

it was always a remote possibility

and is now just a conspiracy, held by ppl who don't grasp the key point

and are easily impressed by coincidences

[HLM @hlm88intel]

@BiophysicsFL @past_is_future I haven't recalculated the chances

but off the top of my head I'd put it at

1-in-1,000,000

today

lab leak isn't even a serious hypothesis, imo

it's a conspiracy theory