Deep value investing, to me, is not about big discounts. It’s about finally seeing something profound and deep underneath the surface, when others are still only seeing the tip of the iceberg, and still making judgements.
@iamjakestream So true. The mainstream VC model is so simplistic right now. AI might do a better job on behalf of LPs. Don’t bet on the VC index. Alpha won’t be found in the mainstream.
Agreed. We fell into the same pattern during the dotcom bubble. We were a feeder fund that backed companies that the best VCs funded at later stages. LPs were impressed because they couldn’t even get into those funds and they were buying in at much better prices with us. But we learned the hard way that the emperor has no clothes.
We went down a different path after the dotcom crash. Control your own destiny is a mantra that should apply to founders as well as smaller, early stage VCs. Don’t be a feeder fund. Find your own path and the LPs will eventually flock to you because you’ve not only beaten the big VCs but because you’ll still be around decades from now doing what you love doing, long after others have gone home.
Agreed. We fell into the same pattern during the dotcom bubble. We were a feeder fund that backed companies that the best VCs funded at later stages. LPs were impressed because they couldn’t even get into those funds and they were buying in at much better prices with us. But we learned the hard way that the emperor has no clothes.
We went down a different path after the dotcom crash. Control your own destiny is a mantra that should apply to founders as well as smaller, early stage VCs. Don’t be a feeder fund. Find your own path and the LPs will eventually flock to you because you’ve not only beaten the big VCs but because you’ll still be around decades from now doing what you love doing, long after others have gone home.
Agreed. We fell into the same pattern during the dotcom bubble. We were a feeder fund that backed companies that the best VCs funded at later stages. LPs were impressed because they couldn’t even get into those funds and they were buying in at much better prices with us. But we learned the hard way that the emperor has no clothes.
We went down a different path after the dotcom crash. Control your own destiny is a mantra that should apply to founders as well as smaller, early stage VCs. Don’t be a feeder fund. Find your own path and the LPs will eventually flock to you because you’ve not only beaten the big VCs but because you’ll still be around decades from now doing what you love doing, long after others have gone home.
Not sure if a billion dollar EV IPO can happen in US these days, which isn’t good for companies or investors. Another point is that traditional venture model can still work without needing $100B or even decacorn outcomes if ownership is meaningful and fund sizes are modest. The VC industry has moved away from what makes it special, having deep, early relationships with founders and companies.
This is quite an amazing pivot. Elice started as an EdTech company (teaching coding) and is now a profitable AI infrastructure company which just completed the largest tech IPO of the year on KOSDAQ. Extreme volatility (down and then back up 30%) in the first two trading days after pricing at the top of the range. Crazy times and there will be speculation and volatility but a great founder like Jaewon is committed to building a massive, global business over time. And now he has the capital to make it happen.
https://t.co/oNOo4qxvvr
This is quite an amazing pivot. Elice started as an EdTech company (teaching coding) and is now a profitable AI infrastructure company which just completed the largest tech IPO of the year on KOSDAQ. Extreme volatility (down and then back up 30%) in the first two trading days after pricing at the top of the range. Crazy times and there will be speculation and volatility but a great founder like Jaewon is committed to building a massive, global business over time. And now he has the capital to make it happen.
https://t.co/oNOo4qxvvr
Jess was a data skeptic when she joined us from a data company. Watching her change her mind with evidence is why I'd read this. Decades of investing have taught me that the best ideas sound early and a bit contrarian. Jess's piece on data is one of those. Starting skeptical and ending up all in. That's the kind of conviction I trust.
Most investors are still massively undervaluing data.
I was also skeptical when I left a data co for Altos in 2025. Today, I’m all in on data.
Every software company will become a data company. Most will lose. Many more will win than we think. https://t.co/GtnlZo46aq
It’s interesting because the prediction was the best Roblox developers would move to Steam due to take rates. And there have been defections. But the flow can go both ways and in the end the market will decide. Developers will go where they can make the most money just as sellers go between Amazon, Shopify and eBay.
Edwin Land should’ve been listed among the greatest hedgehogs.
“My whole life has been spent trying to teach people that intense concentration for hour after hour can bring out in people resources they didn't know they had.”
Edwin Land should’ve been listed among the greatest hedgehogs.
“My whole life has been spent trying to teach people that intense concentration for hour after hour can bring out in people resources they didn't know they had.”
I think this is right. But even Buffett had Munger. Even you disagree, if you have other smart people around who you trust and respect, it can challenge you to push your thinking and do your best work. I’m solo GP at our family office and I’m also part of a partnership at a VC firm (for 30 years) and see the pros and cons of both approaches.
@mindthelongterm Agreed. Learned a lot by observing David Baszucki. He’s the ultimate clock builder. Everything is about building sustainable systems that can scale. It’s always about the long term. Decades, not years.
Agree with Oren’s comments that the current VC environment is creating companies growing in ways that are “unhealthy, unsustainable and in some cases not real” (fraud or borderline fraud). It won’t end well. People complaining about high valuations miss the point. The risk isn’t the price, it’s that most companies are being set up to fail. Zeros.
@orenzeev is one of most unique VCs. After a brief meeting with Peter Thiel, he decided to launch his own solo GP fund with Peter's help.
Today, he manages nearly $3B but remains a one-man shop. No associates, no assistants. In a world of consensus, he's anything but as he's lowered fund sizes, generally stayed away from the frothiest parts of AI, and continues to operate with a simple philosophy around founder selection.
One area we dug into is how many companies that are growing (2-3x per year) are largely ignored in the AI area (i.e. if you're not growing 5-10x, you are not "venture" fundable). In essence we are trading, in some cases durability of revenues for rapidity of growth. This seems like a great opportunity to buy strong, durable companies with good metrics at a relative discount to the rest of the market. For many in VC, the incentives point toward momentum and consensus, which is why I really enjoyed Oren's straightforward and principled approach.
Check out our conversation in the comments below.
"Enduring growth is usually the result of hewing to a business fundamental: solid unit economics. That often requires intentionally slowing down, taking the time to build the right foundation, and only then scaling up." https://t.co/QoXVaE5ycK
Most VCs can’t return even 3x at the fund level. If I can get 3x net on low risk, it’s worth a bet. If I make a series of value bets, I’ll still end up with a power law like distribution of returns over time. Even Buffett who’s the most careful investor of all time had a power law distribution - he said 12 investments made the difference over 60 years (and 400+ investments) between mediocrity and spectacular success.
Three reasons why the data industry is dominated by young people (<28), even more so than other large AI markets:
1. We are at the beginning of a supercycle and young people are unburdened by priors of what durable equity value looks like
2. Young people have time and energy, and data is intense (part of what makes it hard)
3. AI researchers and adjacent lab employees also skew young, and these relationships matter a lot
@totodile_cap Agreed. What’s interesting is that some of the businesses are so profitable that the interim cash generation could be enough to make returns interesting. Not a home run but can get multiples of the investment back (quickly) even if terminal value turns out to be low.