> be demis hassabis
> spawn in london
> age 4, become child chess prodigy
> win chess tournaments
> reach ~2300 elo
> face danish chess champion
> game lasts hours
> position is a forced draw
> too exhausted to see it
> resign
> danish guy laughs and shows the draw
> feel sick to my stomach
> realise something is wrong
> chess is too narrow a problem
> brilliant minds wasting decades on it
> decide not to become a chess pro
> buy a computer with chess winnings
> teach self to program from books
> start hacking on games with friends
> decide to finish school early
> apply to cambridge age 16
> cambridge says you're too young
> forced to take a gap year
> enter a video game coding competition
> win
> get invited to join bullfrog game studio
> too young to be legally employed
> work there anyway
> build ai system inside theme park game
> game becomes a global hit
> turn 17
> offered £1,000,000 to stay and build games
> turn it down
> go to cambridge anyway
> decide games aren't enough
> study computer science
> interested in agi since 2007
> most people laugh at this idea
> realise brain is only form of agi we have
> want to learn more about human brain
> go back to school
> study neuroscience
> realise academia moves too slow
> decide to build a company instead
> start deepmind
> pitch “solve intelligence”
> investors don’t know what that means
> get to meet peter thiel for one minute
> wonder how to convince him
> spend one minute playing chess with him
> pitch "solve intelligence" again
> he invests
> go into total stealth mode for two years
> no website
> secret office
> candidates think it’s a scam
> start to train ai in simulated environments
> train ai with reinforcement learning
> train ai on pong first
> it sucks
> can't win a single point
> keep trying
> wait it won a a point
> wait it's winning every single point
> it actually works
> expand to train on any two-player game
> chess first, then move on to go
> beats world champion at go
> beats pros at starcraft
> games is not enough
> want to push into science
> realise compute is the bottleneck
> know this will take decades
> google offers ~$400m
> not the highest price
> but they offer unlimited compute
> accept
> refuse to become a product team
> stay in research mode
> determined to use ai for good
> need to figure out what's next
> land on protein folding
> 50-year-old unsolved science problem
> many great minds have tried and failed
> "good luck"
> start up alphafold
> try to solve protein folding
> humans take years to find 1 protein structure
> alphafold can find ~5 per day
> submit results, win competition
> not good enough
> hire more scientists
> rebuild it
> go from solving one per day to millions per day
> create invaluable system
> pharma would pay anything
> have to decide what to do with this
> could sell access for usage
> maybe make it a paid service
> remember childhood chess tournament
> remember why we built this
> decide to give it away all away for free
> publish all known protein structures publicly
> win nobel peace prize
> just the beginning towards agi
A Central Bank Just Said They May Buy Billions In Bitcoin
There is a story in the Financial Times this morning titled “Head of Czech central bank wants it to buy billions of euros in bitcoin.” This may come as a surprise to many investors, but I am actually surprised it has taken this long.
President Donald Trump has been talking for months about his plan to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States. El Salvador owns hundreds of millions of dollars in bitcoin and continues to buy at least one bitcoin per day. And the country of Bhutan has approximately $1.3 billion of bitcoin on their balance sheet, which is almost 50% of their total GDP for the nation.
We also know that Russian President Vladimir Putin has discussed his country’s activities in mining bitcoin and using the digital currency for payments with other countries. So given all these public disclosures, combined with the leader of the free world suggesting the United States is going to make a large move, you would think many other countries would have been already front-running America in their bitcoin purchases.
My guess is various countries are buying bitcoin and not disclosing it yet.
The incentive would be to buy as much bitcoin as you can before you ever announce anything. If you announce your intentions to buy before you actually do it, then you risk pushing the price higher and costing your country cheaper bitcoin.
This brings me back to the Czech central bank announcement. We don’t know if it will be approved, but the two most interesting aspects to me is (1) the head of the central bank is suggesting this rather than a low-level employee and (2) the suggested target allocation is 5% instead of a measly 1-2%.
Part of the logic for the central bankers proposal is that bitcoin “has zero correlation to bonds and is an interesting asset for a large portfolio.” He is making a portfolio construction argument — this feels like a much higher probability argument to make in the institutional investment world.
Ales Michl responded to the article going viral with the following statement on X:
“Czech National Bank’s goal is price stability. When we took office in July 2022, inflation was 17.5%. We brought it down to target. We are also diversifying reserves—gradually increasing gold holdings from 0% to around 5% and planning for 30% in equities. An asset under consideration is Bitcoin. It currently has zero correlation to bonds and is an interesting asset for a large portfolio. Worth considering. Right now, it’s only at the stage of analysis and discussion. The Bank Board decides, and no decision is imminent.
Thoughtful analysis is needed.
Bitcoin has significant volatility, which makes it harder to take advantage of its current low correlation with other assets. That’s why I will ask our team on Thursday to further assess Bitcoin’s potential role in our reserves. Nothing more, nothing less.
The article is very accurate, including my statement that Bitcoin could one day be worth either zero or a huge amount.”
Similar to the US working group that is “studying” the potential bitcoins strategic reserve, the Czech National Bank is analyzing whether this makes sense for them or not. My prediction is both countries will conclude they need to hold bitcoin.
If countries start buying bitcoin, especially billions of dollars at a time, we should be in store for a fun 2025. Bitcoiners have been saying for years the digital currency would eventually be adopted by nation states. It looks like they are going to be right again.
An idea’s time has come. Countries aren’t going to stay on the sidelines for much longer.
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We live in a time increasingly resembling the second half of the 1930s. I couldn't live with myself with the knowledge I didn't do more to stop another Hitler. In light of the Republican wavering and in memory of Navalny I will give $100 towards FPV drones for Ukr for every RT.
Here's my conversation with Sam Altman (@sama), CEO of OpenAI, the creator of GPT-4, ChatGPT, DALL-E, Codex, and other incredible AI systems that are transforming human civilization. This conversation was truly fascinating, challenging, and eye-opening. https://t.co/LTNPaJ8YQq
2017: Credit Suisse $CS CEO says #Bitcoin at $7,000 is "the very definition of a bubble".
2023: #BTC is pumping past $28,000 while his bank is failing ☠️
Pro ty, co čekají s nataženou rukou na peníze od státu ☝️
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