Tim

it was always about the narrative

alter ego: @wayfaring_tim

[Tim @hot_storage]

All products can be distilled into a single key feature and if it's good enough, nothing else matters.

Think of adult content, users will click through a hellsite just to get it.

[Tim @hot_storage]

@Jestopher_BTC They are different products. The comparison should be bank loans vs. stablecoin issuance.

The answer is risk appetite. Banks are public companies and fully auditable. There's enough societal belief that liquidity will be available.

[Tim @hot_storage]

"there will be many fewer sovereign currencies and most weak nations will be dollarized – not through USG intervention but by a spontaneous "bottom up" process (this happened in Ecuador in 99/20 as described by larry white)."

Yes.

[nic carter @nic_carter]

in singapore last year i gave a talk called "cryptodollarization". the idea is dollarization via stablecoins. now with the GENIUS act about to pass and bessent's comments about stables reaching $3.7T (!!) (13% of M3), i believe stablecoins are being unleashed as an economic weapon to dollarize the rest of the world and help reset the US fiscal position.

cryptodollarization has happened already, arguably in venezuela, argentina (partial), and nigeria (partial). i believe it's much more aggressive than conventional dollarization, which is often limited by availability of physical banknotes.

I believe that in a decade there will be many fewer sovereign currencies and most weak nations will be dollarized – not through USG intervention but by a spontaneous "bottom up" process (this happened in Ecuador in 99/20 as described by larry white). in effect consumers engage in currency substitution and force the government's hand.

stablecoins eliminate the power of borders in currency choice and allow network effects to actually take hold. this is why we see the dollar representing >99% of stablecoins but only 40-60% of international reserves and financial flows. stablecoins make currency substitution must faster and more aggressive, and they are also ~impossible to stop. in almost all cases where nation states have attempted to prohibit flows out of local FX into USD stablecoins, they have eventually relented.

in my talk I built a simple model to try and guess where these spontaneous crypto-dollarizations might occur (see the last couple slides).

i wanted to revisit this talk because these predictions have become much closer to reality in the last 12 months. the government is saying the quiet part out loud: stablecoins are an economic weapon to passively dollarize the entire planet.

slides: https://t.co/SOwQ8YfqM0
video: https://t.co/cqh4qYRvcf

[Tim @hot_storage]

my guess is that people want to spend crypto more than people want to accept it. One way out is the instant conversion to stables and the infra that supports that will win

[Tim @hot_storage]

@subnetmask hm, I wouldn't say its so much about the narrative but rather the denomination of their expenses to suppliers and utilities ?

[Tim @hot_storage]

@subnetmask "it removes the reliance on Swift/Wire, Visa and Mastercard. Saving the country billions of dollars in processing fees."

seems like settling in USD (equivalents) is still valuable to businesses. Would stables be a way to pull the dependency layers back? hopefully with lightning

[Tim @hot_storage]

@subnetmask I guess my follow up is, why use lightning?

https://t.co/U2bfHsbAuH

[Tim @hot_storage]

the main benefit of using lightning over their native blockchains seems to be faster settlement, but I wonder if there are diminishing returns.

Is there a material difference between milliseconds and seconds for users? if so, which ones?

[Tim @hot_storage]

@resistancemoney which of his principles was he not listening to?

[Tim @hot_storage]

@w_s_bitcoin stacking is the opposite of fucking around, it requires you to do very little. Curious people want to do a lot.

[Tim @hot_storage]

@notgrubles honest question: doesn't this mean a healthier fee market?

[Tim @hot_storage]

the main benefit of using lightning over their native blockchains seems to be faster settlement, but I wonder if there are diminishing returns.

Is there a material difference between milliseconds and seconds for users? if so, which ones?

[Tim @hot_storage]

@QwQiao depends on the stock, can't calculate P/E ratio with coins.

[Tim @hot_storage]

@niftynei multiagent *economy*

[Tim @hot_storage]

the bull run has meant that the lightning network has gained more capacity, if there's a crash how can we ensure nodes have enough liquidity in fiat terms?

is there such thing as a long term futures contract? @ambosstech

[Tim @hot_storage]

@MarediaShehzan everyone's fighting their own corner, regardless of data. tribal.

[Tim @hot_storage]

@MarediaShehzan do you think it's underreported due to private channels?

[Tim @hot_storage]

@CottenIO @EFDevcon @OPGames_ @protocollabs @futureprimitive Would you have a transcript of your original keynote!

[Tim @hot_storage]

@PavolRusnak maybe not purely cyberpunk but the El Salvador volcano bitcoin mine will always live in my mind

[Tim @hot_storage]

My guess is that there's a lot of indie hackers who get lost in the weeds and burn out before their product launches.

If you need a helping hand my DMs are open.

[Tim @hot_storage]

Indiehackers to follow (to be updated):
- @levelsio
- @tdinh_me