Howard Pan, CFA

Investment manager. Educator. Amateur photographer and darkroom enthusiast.

[dnap @dnapway]

David Sacks says Anthropic could stop Chinese distillation if they wanted to, but they won't because it slows growth

"The way that you know that this whole distillation thing is fake, is because if stopping distillation was their primary objective, Anthropic would push to ban Chinese access to American models, not American access to Chinese models."

"They’re the ones in the best position to block it. If industrial scale distillation is a national security threat, they’re the ones who need to stop it, because that is the place where distillation occurs. You have to stop it at the source."

"They know that if they KYC their customers, it’ll slow their growth. So instead, what they’re saying is, “Hey, ban our competitors.” If they really think it’s that big a threat, they should use a few points of their 90% gross margins to do that."

"It seems to me that this debate is all backwards. The question should be on Anthropic to explain why it’s doing such a bad job, not on the whole American open source ecosystem to be punished for Anthropic’s failure."

[Satya Nadella @satyanadella]

Open-weight models are essential to a healthy AI ecosystem. Together with others across our industry, we are outlining a path for open-weight models to strengthen American competitiveness and expand economic opportunity, while protecting national security. https://t.co/Tr0sAzAxTD

[𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 @OopsGuess]

If even Microsoft is testing Chinese open-source models for Copilot workloads, the psychological shock in Washington will be bigger than the technical one.

Because Americans will start asking the obvious question:

You spent years trying to choke China’s AI development with chip bans, sanctions, export controls, blacklist panic, and national security hysteria.

And for what?

So Microsoft can still look at Chinese models and say: cheaper, useful, scalable, good enough to test inside one of the world’s biggest AI products?

That is not “decoupling.”

That is the empire discovering it cannot embargo competence.

And the valuation problem is even funnier.

OpenAI and Anthropic are priced like they own the future.

But if Chinese open-source models can handle real workloads at a fraction of the cost, then the whole Silicon Valley story starts to rot.

Why should users and companies keep paying monopoly prices for closed, arrogant, user-hostile corporate AI when cheaper open models are already good enough to enter Microsoft’s pipeline?

America tried to kill Chinese AI.

Instead, Chinese AI is teaching America what overpriced AI actually looks like.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔The Wall Street Journal reports that multiple data center builders are simultaneously trying to sell majority stakes in their companies. Netrality, DataBank, Edged, and EdgeCore are all working with bankers to find buyers this summer. DataBank alone could go for $25 billion. These aren't companies selling a few properties. They're selling control of their entire businesses to private equity while the AI buildout is supposedly booming.

My Take
If AI data centers are the gold mine these companies have been telling investors they are, why are the people who built them racing to sell? The WSJ said they're "cashing in on a hot asset class." I'd read it differently. The people closest to the actual economics of building and operating these facilities all decided at the same time that they'd rather have someone else's money than their own equity. That looks a lot more like an exit than a diversification play.

Huang just said a gigawatt of AI compute could cost $100 billion, GPU hardware goes obsolete every 18 months, and local opposition is killing permits in state after state. The customer base is mostly unprofitable AI companies signing leases with investor money, not earned revenue. The builders see all of this up close every day, and they've collectively decided this is a good time to let someone else own the risk going forward.

Hedgie🤗
https://t.co/oP45o6Om1G

[Bill Gurley @bgurley]

If there has been “theft” that suggests a crime has been committed. But I am unaware of any lawsuits being filed. No company should be allowed to declare infringement without adjudication. I’m not convinced a court would call using a product as it’s designed theft.

There is a reason this is being “lobbied” in DC instead of the normal court systems.

[Linuxiac @linuxiac]

GNU Guix 1.5 is out after three years, delivering Plasma 6.5, GNOME 46 on Wayland, rootless package management, and more than 12,500 new packages.
https://t.co/7Bz6eegp9l

#GNU #Guix #Linux #OpenSource

[Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸 @AngelicaOung]

My respect for Ke Wen-je just went up with how calmly he is facing down a 17 year sentence based on absolute bullshit.

>NT $2.1 million (US$ 65k) in political donations, properly logged from the developer
>2 years later, urban development committee hands down a favorable judgement to the developers project.
>No evidence of quid pro quo arrangement. No evidence of interference from Ko to the committee
>no evidence that he misappropriated the funds for his personal use

This is a « crime » that could be framed on any mayor in Taiwan if they take political donations from any business, and then subsequently that business receives a positive judgement for any reason from the city. The critical step of proving the then-mayor improperly used his office to affect the judgement is missing.

Ko spoke clearly and logically: where is the evidence? This is not justice, it is political persecution.

Ko can appeal and the sentence will likely be reduced. But the railroading is so extreme that Taiwan will not stop talking about this all the way to this years elections and probably beyond.

[Howard Pan, CFA @howardpan]

MIT for a better tomorrow, and it starts today with our students. Please support The PKG Center for Social Impact https://t.co/ydI4f4MFp9 via @MIT_alumni

[Howard Pan, CFA @howardpan]

MITES supports students from underserved backgrounds in STEM. Please join me in supporting this worthwhile cause. https://t.co/7NjqCNc0BG via @MIT_alumni

[Howard Pan, CFA @howardpan]

@MIT_alumni
Please join me today and participate in MIT's 24-Hour Challenge. https://t.co/r2LdOdVh2z

[Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸 @AngelicaOung]

Absolutely amazing to see Taiwanese come out in droves on social media to support Trump’s attempted snatching of Greenland.

All this just further underline there’s nothing particularly principled about the Taiwanese independence movement.

It’s just a bunch of geopolitical illiterates who are anti-Chinese but delulu about both the power and intentions of the United States of America.

“The mainstream media is lying to you! The Greenlanders don’t hate Trump, it’s the Danes that are against the deal. They are hungry for American protection and superior medical care.”

“On Greenland, I support America. Even a covert ops superpower like the UK can be infiltrated by the Chinese. How can we expect a small country like Denmark to prevent red infiltration of the strategic arctic territory?”

“They say this is a video of Greenlander? Why do they all have Chinese mainland faces?” (Note: this particular Trump pfp obviously don’t know what Inuits look like)

“Trump isn’t crazy, buy a globe! An ICBM coming from Russia will take 26 minutes to reach the White House. It is over Greenland at minute 11. To defend America, taking Greenland is the only choice.”

[𝔗𝔯𝔲𝔱𝔥 𝔐𝔞𝔱𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔰 @politicsusa46]

For anyone who would like to hear Mark Carney’s outstanding Davos speech in full here it is. This is what true global leadership looks like.

Canada should be immensely proud today, because they are leading the fight back when others dare not.

🎥 TikTok - https://t.co/BExGV2YIDq

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

After the Canadians ran ads featuring Pres. Reagan condemning tariffs, Trump lost his cool and halted trade talks.

Watch my old boss, Pres. Reagan, DESTROY TARIFFS with clarity and conviction. 

Trump is no Reagan. 

[Barack Obama @BarackObama]

The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice. Except it doesn’t bend on its own—it bends because we pull it in the direction of justice. What keeps me hopeful during times like these is being surrounded by people who are doing just that.

[Howard Pan, CFA @howardpan]

@ElonMuskNews47 What’s the bandwidth and can I get a transceiver built into my phone?

[Howard Pan, CFA @howardpan]

@tomaspueyo What industries today are labor intensive and depend heavily on migrants, currently under attack? Those industries, like cotton picking, are difficult to mechanize. Migrant workers, like slave labor, are exploited due to their status and have no representation in government.

[Howard Pan, CFA @howardpan]

@HAOHONG_CFA Best of luck in your new venture

[Howard Pan, CFA @howardpan]

@ChrisBarnatt @orangepixunlong I enjoy your videos very much. Have you heard of Bit Brick? They have a RISC-V cluster board (https://t.co/R2iMNS1VZn…) available for USD 265 including 4 daughter boards. Maybe it’s something you would like to check out. Mine is in the mail already.

[Howard Pan, CFA @howardpan]

@geerlingguy Have you heard of Bit Brick? They have a RISC-V cluster board (https://t.co/hWprQr7I4o) available for USD 265 including 4 daughter boards. Mine is in the mail, but I would love to see a review from you.

[MAGA Cult Slayer @MAGACult2]

HEEEEEE’S BAAAACCKKK!!!