BIG WEEK FOR CRYPTO HOLDERS 🚨
29TH OCTOBER ➞ FOMC MEETING, RATE CUT DECISION AND POWELL'S PRESS CONFERENCE
29TH OCTOBER ➞ MICROSOFT, META AND ALPHABET EARNINGS REPORT
30TH OCTOBER ➞ DONALD TRUMP AND XI JINPING MEETING
30TH OCTOBER ➞ APPLE AND AMAZON EARNINGS REPORT
EXPECT HIGH VOLATILITY!
Hyperliquid’s fully onchain liquidations cannot be compared with underreported CEX liquidations
Hyperliquid is a blockchain where every order, trade, and liquidation happens onchain. Anyone can permissionlessly verify the chain’s execution, including all liquidations and their fair execution for all users. Furthermore, anyone can verify the solvency of the entire system in real time. Transparency and neutrality are key reasons that fully onchain defi is the ideal infrastructure for global finance.
Some CEXs publicly document that they dramatically underreport user liquidations. For example on Binance, even if there are thousands of liquidation orders in the same second, only one is reported. Because liquidations happen in bursts, this could easily be 100x under-reporting under some conditions. Source below.
Hopefully the industry will see transparency and neutrality as important features of the new financial system, and others will follow.
Did Ethena Really Depeg?
I’ve seen a lot of chatter about the Ethena depeg during the market mayhem this weekend. The story is that USDe briefly depegged to ~68c before recovering. Here’s the Binance chart everyone is quoting:
But digging into the data and talking to a bunch of folks over last couple days, it's now clear this story is not correct. USDe did *not* depeg.
First thing to understand about USDe: its most liquid venue is actually not on exchanges, it’s on Curve. There’s hundreds of millions of dollars of standing liquidity on Curve, while only tens of millions on any given exchange, including Binance.
So if you just look at that chart of USDe on Binance, it looks like USDe depegged. But if you superimpose the other liquid venues for USDe, you get a different picture:
We see here that while USDe wicked down on every CEX, it did not do so uniformly. Bybit briefly hit $0.95 then quickly recovered, yet Binance depegged a crazy amount and took forever to regain the peg. Curve meanwhile dipped a mere 0.3%. What explains this difference?
Remember, every single exchange was under immense load on that day—it was the single largest liquidation event in crypto history. Binance was extremely unstable during this period, causing MMs to be unable to shift inventory because APIs were failing and withdrawals and deposits were bricked. Nobody was able to step in and arb.
It’s like a fire broke out on Binance, but all of the roads were blocked and firefighters couldn’t make their way in. This caused a wildfire to break out on Binance, but pretty much everywhere else, that fire was immediately put out by bridging liquidity. (As Guy shows in his post, USDC also depegged a few cents temporarily on Binance due to the same general instability issues—liquidity just couldn’t get ferried in, but this wasn’t a depeg event for USDC either.)
So OK. Unsurprising that while there’s API instability, prices on exchanges are wildly different because nobody can get inventory in. But why did it decline so much deeper on Binance than on Bybit?
The answer is twofold—first, Binance did not have any primary dealer relationship with Ethena to be able to directly mint and redeem on-platform (Bybit and other exchanges have this integrated) which allows MMs to stay on-platform and still perform peg arbitrage. This is huge, as otherwise an MM has to take their money *out* of Binance, go do the Ethena peg arb, and then bring back their inventory. Nobody was doing that in a moment of crisis when APIs were failing (plus so many other coins were cratering).
Second, Binance had their oracle poorly implemented and started liquidating positions they shouldn’t have—good liquidation mechanisms don’t trigger on flash crashes. If you are not the primary venue for an asset (which Binance is not for USDe) then you should look at the price on the primary venue. If you are only looking at your own order book, you will liquidate too aggressively. This caused Binance to start liquidating USDe as though it was worth $0.80 or whatever, which caused a cascade. This is a big part of the reason why Binance is refunding people who were liquidated on USDe (other exchanges AFAIK are not doing so)—they messed up by only looking at their own price instead of the true external price.
So this was a Binance-specific flash crash, which better market structure could’ve prevented. USDe on its primary venue, Curve, was actually trading at a tight peg the entire day. This is really different from what you’d describe as a depeg.
If you remember USDC in 2023 during the banking crisis, this is what an actual depeg looks like:
During the banking crisis, USDC traded down on every single venue. There was *no* place where you could buy USDC for $1. Redemptions were literally halted, so $0.87 was the *true* price. That’s what a depeg means.
This instead was a Binance-specific dislocation. It’s a big lesson for market infra, but critical to understand the nuance here if you are trying to draw inferences about USDe’s mechanism from this weekend.
USDe was fully collateralized and worth $1 on its primary venue through the entire episode and actually increased its backing collateral over the weekend due to the price action. That said, this kind of market instability is ultimately good because it exposes lessons for the whole industry. Guy’s post below lays out how any exchange, including Binance, can avoid this kind of issue in the future.
TL;DR: USDe did not depeg, Binance did.
$ETH 3rd Cycle the retest before parabolic.
We can see that Ethereum has exhibited a similar pattern before every major bull run.
1st Cycle (2017)
Retest of the demand zone, followed by a parabolic rise.
2nd Cycle (2020)
Same structure, same momentum.
3rd Cycle (2025)
We are now back in the same zone, Pre-Parabolic phase after retest.
This is not just a correction, it will be the beginning of the next major wave of Ethereum.
@zachxbt@blancxbt The fact that XRP has been able to convince billions of people that it's a legit Crypto revolution is the biggest social Engineering Art in the History of Capitalism.
Must be studied and appreciated.
A THREAD
Temen gw habis liburan dari Jogja, pulang2 kesurupan ternyata ada yang ngikutin dari Jogja setelah ngambil batu dari Candi Sari.
Iklan
Iklan
Post
Iklan
Iklan
Post
Iklan
Iklan
🗿🗿🗿
i am fortunate to have friends who send me papers when i ask them for feedback on my ideas (homie just finished a stanford phd)
so here is a paper he shared that makes me excited about the potential of crypto x ai infra
- @hyperbolic_labs
- @PrimeIntellect
- @fortytwonetwork
🧵this paper explores the creation of systems that autonomously drive scientific discovery driven by multi agent 'swarms of intelligence' akin to biological systems
If you’re worried about the upcoming performance of the HyperEVM, look no further than the quality of the best perp dex and the quality of best swag in the entire industry.
The @lululemon and @HyperliquidX collab was the biggest clue you needed to farm hyperliquid harder and it’s still your best clue today.
(H/t @hyperliquidbull)