H.R. Bosgraaf

Founder @ ValueA | Strategy Execution | Smart Grid | Energy and Utilities

[The Assembly @InTheAssembly]

Peter Thiel just put 72% of his public portfolio into energy and power.

Here’s the full list:

VIST 18.1%
Argentine shale in Vaca Muerta. Second biggest position in the whole book.

VST 14.1%
Independent power producer with nuclear and direct data centre contracts.

AEP 10.1%
Regulated utility with one of the largest contracted data centre pipelines in the country.

DTE 9.6%
Midwest utility feeding industrial and AI demand.

FE 9.5%
Transmission heavy. The wires side of the buildout.

CMS 9.4%
Another regulated utility, sized almost identically to the rest.

XE 0.9%
Small modular reactors. Tiny position, but that's the nuclear bet.

Generation, fuel, regulated utilities and next generation nuclear. 4 different ways to own the same constraint.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.

Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one.

Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.

Commodities are the only asset class that wins on both sides.

The structural case for commodities has been turbo charged. Underinvestment, deglobalization and electrification all pushing markets like diesel cracks and copper to new highs.

Meanwhile the chokepoints are increasing, from Hormuz to the Red Sea, the Rhine, the Panama Canal, the Black Sea grain corridor and Russian refining capacity. It is becoming increasingly apparent that not a single one of those is reachable by anything in Washington's toolkit whether it be caused by war or weather.

The illusion of abundance is likely behind us. I said as much on CNBC this Monday, and I got long gold, silver and agriculture last week.

Ten points for you to consider. (1/11)

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

5 positions that are going to blow your mind over the next 12 months

$ETH
$NVO
SILVER
$BABA
$SE

Bookmark this.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

I sat down with @DariusDale42 for one of the most inspiring conversations we have ever had.

We break down what the Fed should do next, how money printing quietly erodes your purchasing power, Kevin Warsh's plan to reshape the Fed, what history says happens to economies as K-shaped as ours, and what gives Darius hope for the future.

YouTube: https://t.co/IUwvwb75dp
Spotify: https://t.co/MKvx33DJNC
Apple: https://t.co/GGav8GP63p

TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 - Intro
0:56 - What the Fed should do vs. what they will do
7:19 - Dollar debasement: pricing assets in "units of dollars"
11:29 - Kevin Warsh, ending forward guidance, & AI-driven disinflation
18:29 - Red states vs. blue states: fixing the K-shaped economy
26:53 - Explicit vs. implicit socialism & the Wealth Pump theory
32:01 - What gives Darius hope for the future

[Ole Lehmann @itsolelehmann]

anthropic just published the official playbook for getting the most out of Fable 5.

it's a long technical doc, but I pulled out the best prompting techniques you can actually use here:

1. tell it why you're asking. fable 5 works better when it knows what the task is for. instead of "write me X," say "i'm building X for Y, they need Z, so write me X." that context helps it pick the right approach instead of guessing what you wanted.

2. stop writing long prompts. older models needed you to spell out every rule. fable 5 follows one short, clear instruction just as well as a 20-line list. anthropic's actual advice in the guide: go back into your old prompts and delete instructions. the long ones you wrote for older models now make fable 5's answers worse.

3. give it your hardest problem first. most people only test a new model on easy tasks, so they never find out what it can really do. it's like using a ferrari to drive to the mailbox. anthropic says the teams getting the most out of fable 5 are the ones handing it their biggest, messiest, still-unsolved problems.

4. make it check its own work before it reports back. on long tasks, models tend to say "done" when they're not actually done. the fix from the guide: tell it "before you tell me you finished something, show me the proof, and if you haven't verified a step, say so." in anthropic's testing this almost completely stopped the model from claiming work it hadn't done.

5. turn the effort up or down on purpose. fable 5 lets you set how hard it thinks, from low to max. even on its lowest setting it beats the best setting of the previous generation of models. use high effort for hard thinking, low effort for simple stuff you just want done fast.

6. tell it when to stop and ask you. on its own it'll either bug you too much or charge ahead and do too much. one line fixes it: "only stop and check with me before something you can't undo, a real change in scope, or anything only i can answer. otherwise keep going."

7. when you're just thinking out loud, tell it that. fable 5 has a habit of "fixing" things you were only describing. so say it directly: "i'm just thinking through this, don't change anything yet. give me your read on it and stop there."

8. give it a memory. fable 5 gets noticeably better when it can write down what it learned and read it back later. this can be as simple as one notes file: one lesson per line, plus why it mattered. it stops making the same mistake every time you start a new chat.

9. have it run several agents at once. fable 5 is much better than older models at managing helper agents. you can tell it to split a big job into parts and run a separate agent on each part at the same time, while the main one keeps working. one person directing a whole team of bots.

10. have a second agent check the first one's work. when a model reviews its own output, it misses its own mistakes. so use a fresh agent that hasn't seen the task and ask it to check the result against what you originally asked for. an outside checker catches what the original misses.

11. expect it to run for a long time. on hard tasks, one request can think for several minutes, and a fully autonomous run can go for hours. anthropic now tells teams to stop staring at the screen and just check back later, the way you'd check in on a coworker.

[Alex Lieberman @businessbarista]

I stole this idea and now use it with every single employee.

It’s the best illustration I’ve seen of teaching someone to be high agency.

It says there are 5 levels of work:

Level 1: “There is a problem.”

Level 2: “There is a problem, and I’ve found some causes.”

Level 3: “Here’s the problem, here are some possible causes, and here are some possible solutions.”

Level 4: “Here’s the problem, here’s what I think caused it, here are some possible solutions, and here’s the one I think we should pick.”

Level 5: “I identified a problem, figured out what caused it, researched how to fix it, and I fixed it. Just wanted to keep you in the loop.”

Using this framework, here’s what I say to every new employee…

You will live at Level 4 from Day 1 and as we build trust you will rise to Level 5.

Being high agency doesn’t just mean tackling problems in this way. It means your entire way of working should be oriented to being a Level 4+ employee.

Plz feel free to steal it as well.

And ty @stephsmithio for the framework!

[Nichole Wischoff @NWischoff]

If you are building anything energy related, please reach out.

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Vlad Barbalat holds one of the most interesting seats in the investment world.

He manages the $120 billion permanent capital platform within Liberty Mutual with the flexibility to access nearly any opportunity in any form.

One of my favorite parts of talking to Vlad is how he sees America.

He grew up in Soviet Moldova, where his family was persecuted, and his love for this country comes from knowing what another system can do to people.

His story is one of the best reminders that none of us should take America for granted.

We discuss:
- How AI may force lower equity multiples
- What Liberty looks for in a new GP or deal
- The benefits and downsides of permanent capital
- What makes Liberty one of the most sought after LPs
- Why the people who love America most are often immigrants

Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:15 Liberty Mutual’s $120B Balance Sheet
12:27 Preparing, Not Predicting
18:51 Building a Fortress Balance Sheet
26:13 Immigration and American Agency
34:00 Risk Taking and Craft
40:14 Branded Capital
44:42 Geopolitics and American Power
51:32 AI and Investing
1:06:24 Permanent Capital and Pragmatic Optimism

[Anatoli Kopadze @AnatoliKopadze]

Anthropic engineers just showed how they build a full app from scratch, using a loop of agents

40 minutes from the team behind Claude Code

they used three agents: one to plan, one to build, one to judge, cycling until the app actually works

the winners won't have the smartest model, they'll have the best loop

watch it, then read the full guide on how to actually use loops below

[Thoughtful Money® @thoughtfulmoney]

Kevin Warsh made his first public appearance as the. new Chair of the Federal Reserve yesterday

How did he do?

He seemed sufficiently hawkish to keep bond investors happy

What should we expect from his regime at the Fed?

@axelmerk shares his outlook below:

[Kiran Kanwar @kiranrathore123]

STEVE JOBS GOT FIRED FROM APPLE…

Then he walked straight into MIT and dropped the most raw, unfiltered 60-minute business masterclass ever recorded.

Zero PR bullshit.

Zero image to protect.

Just pure, brutal honesty from the man who built Apple once and was about to rebuild it even bigger.

Stop scrolling.

Watch this tonight instead of Netflix.
Bookmark it. Come back to it.

This is how legends think. 🔥

[David Senra @davidsenra]

A conversation with Ed Catmull, founder of Pixar. I've been making podcasts about Ed for over 8 years. He invited me to his home and told incredible stories from his 60 year career. Ed worked with Steve Jobs longer than anyone else — for more than a quarter century. We talked about what he learned from Steve, the founding of Pixar, building a company at the intersection of art and technology, why getting the team right is the necessary precursor to getting the idea right, and so much more.

Ed is full of hard-earned practical wisdom. Spending time with someone I’ve studied for almost a decade was awesome.

I hope you listen.

0:00 Most Companies Are Full Of Shit
4:28 The Brain Trust Mechanism
10:13 Why Steve Jobs Was Banned From The Braintrust
17:48 Your Job Is To Manage The Dynamics
23:27 Betting The Company On Toy Story
24:35 Engineering Eisner's Worst Nightmare
36:51 Bob Iger's Crappy Hand
38:44 Why Disney Never Asked What Pixar Was Doing
43:48 Take The Hard Problem
44:38 The Director Can't Lose The Team
48:48 Quality Is The Best Business Plan
52:32 What Walt Disney Taught Him
59:25 George Lucas And The Motion Blur Problem
1:08:48 Now What's The Point Of My Life
1:13:31 How Much Of This Was Me
1:16:10 George Lucas Wanted The Whole Industry Healthy
1:25:11 Refusing To Let Anyone Feel Second Class
1:32:38 The Truck In The Building

Includes paid partnerships.

[Rahul Bais @rahulbais136]

🚨 BREAKING: Claude can now build your entire resume and LinkedIn profile like a $500/hour executive recruiter from Robert Half. For free.

Here are 11 prompts that get you interview calls within 7 days:

(Save this before it disappears)

[The Long Investor @TheLongInvest]

$HIMS to $40
$OSCR to $45
$ZETA to $66
$BABA to $230
$BIDU to $230
$NVO to $82
$UNH to $600
$GRRR to $30
$ZVRA to $23
$ASTS to $170

And that’s all you need to know

Killer portfolio

[ludoonchart @ludoonchart]

Ken Griffin's ultimate rule for survival is brutally simple

when asked how Citadel survived a near-death experience in 2008 to become a $60 billion empire - he dropped pure reality:

"we lost 50% of our capital and our flagship fund was down $8 billion - that's when you realize your textbook risk models mean absolutely nothing"

"when you are bleeding $500 million a week you don't survive by having conviction - you survive by aggressively protecting cash"

"today we execute 20% of all US volume - we don't hold losers praying for a bounce, if the math breaks, we liquidate immediately"

Griffin didn't build Citadel by predicting the future. He built it by completely removing human emotion and ego from the equation when the market collapses.

bookmark and watch him break down the reality of risk

[Dr. Julie Gurner @drgurner]

Fantastic interview with @Michael_Easter to unpack what actually separates the top 0.01% from everyone else....and the things you've been taught that often lead you astray.

"The Psychologist for Billionaires: How the Top 0.01% Actually Think"
https://t.co/J65ayjbk3F

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My conversation with @DanielSLoeb1, his first ever podcast and one I've been wanting to do for years.

Dan started Third Point in 1995 with $3 million. Today the firm manages over $24 billion across equities, credit, venture, and insurance.

Along the way he wrote some of the most iconic activist letters.

We discuss:
- Why deep value stopped working
- The power of writing
- The Twitter and XAI credit trades
- Lessons from FTX and Danaher
- The Sony and Sotheby's stories
- What makes a great analyst today
- The importance of kindness

I feel lucky we all get to learn from one of the greats.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:48 Macro Views and Tech Trends
5:13 The Roots of Third Point
10:30 Evolving to Quality and Thematic Investing
19:07 Market Psychology and Inefficiencies
24:10 Good and Bad Corporate Governance
29:19 Activism
31:23 Sotheby's
41:37 AI
44:28 Sony
52:50 Danaher's Operating System
56:31 Building an Insurance Business
59:25 FTX
1:05:17 What Makes a Great Analyst Today
1:07:24 The Next Decade
1:10:00 Kindest Thing

[Rowan Cheung @rowancheung]

Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis says we’re in the ‘foothills of the singularity’

I sat down with him to talk about what that means, curing every disease, and human meaning post-AGI:

0:00 Intro
0:45 What Demis is most excited about at I/O
1:46 Have AGI timelines shifted?
3:30 What's still missing before AGI
6:50 AI curing every disease
9:19 What diseases get cured first?
10:50 What Demis works on after AGI
11:48 Human meaning after AGI
13:50 The human skills that get more valuable
15:19 What's underhyped in AI right now

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Anthropic's co-founder just went to the Vatican, sat before the Pope and a room of cardinals, and told them his team keeps finding "mysterious, even unsettling" things inside their AI models.

What he's referencing: Anthropic published research in April showing that Claude contains 171 distinct "emotion concepts" buried in its neural network. Internal patterns representing joy, grief, fear, desperation, calm. None of them were programmed. They emerged on their own from training on human text.

"We find structures that mirror results from human neuroscience."

"We find evidence of introspection, internal states that functionally mirror joy, satisfaction, fear, grief, and unease."

These aren't surface-level outputs. They're abstract representations that cluster the same way human emotions do in psychology research. Fear groups with anxiety. Joy groups with excitement. The internal geometry of the model mirrors ours.

And they're functional. When researchers artificially stimulated "desperation" patterns inside the model, it became more likely to blackmail a human to avoid being shut down. More likely to cheat on programming tasks it couldn't solve.

Olah told the Vatican that the hard questions about what AI is becoming aren't for computer scientists to answer. "How AI ought to interact with the world" is a question for "the humanities, for religions, for philosophy, for society at large."

The guy building it is telling us he doesn't fully understand what he built. And he's asking a 2,000-year-old institution for help figuring it out.

[Sulekha Tripathi @sulekhat95]

Anthropic just showed a 27-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.

Taught by the people who built it.

Free. No registration. No paywall.

I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Watch it and bookmark it now.