Humblefarter

DeMark GCR.

[Humblefarter @humblefarter]

Chat, I'm out.

It’s a fact we are currently on the final, most impulsive leg of this bull run (Elliot wave 5).

On the 1W $BTC chart, a 13 combo sell will also be triggered on the close of this weekly candle (with 13 sequential sell confluence, but hidden here on this chart). This happens 0-1 times each cycle historically.

Thus conservatively, I assumed BTC tops out this week for real and that there would not be an alt szn (unlikely, but not impossible. But I can’t risk the latter).

So I told myself enough is enough, sold everything and off ramped.

Obviously I hope prices continue to pump much higher from here and that I am wrong for the sake of everybody’s bags. But I also hope the above helps some.

[Humblefarter @humblefarter]

We have topped in semis and AI.

Sell everything.

[ℏεsam @Hesamation]

Meta burns $2.65B a year on AI tokens. at $300K for a Meta engineer, that's enough to pay ~9,000 engineers for a full year.

now ask yourself: since the layoffs, has Meta shipped anything that feels like 9,000 engineers’ worth of output?

[Humblefarter @humblefarter]

More chatgpt slop from Monsieur sailor

[stonkdaddy @stonk_daddy]

One more $SPCX catalyst that no one is talking about:

Everyone wants to talk about lockup expiration. Like I mentioned in the past, lockup is going to mostly be a nothingburger. There will be some selling to be sure, but absorbed by Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000 index rebalancing with their weighting increasing with float.

What WILL be a real catalyst is Elon’s 366 day lockup expiry. On that day, 0 shares will be sold, while the float will increase by 40%.

Which means in the index rebalancing following that expiry, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000 will increase their weighting by nearly double. Do the math.

[Humblefarter @humblefarter]

@TaikiMaeda2

[Najam Ali @najam_ali]

The IEA’s emergency reserve buffer 400 million barrels released since February runs out around July 9.

That is when the market stops pretending and starts pricing reality.

July forecast at the U.S. gas stations:

• Base case (no deal, partial Hormuz): $5.20–5.50

•Escalation case (full closure holds): $5.80–6.20

•Shock case (new strikes) $6.50–7.00

Trump has four months to either close a deal or own $7 gas. (Midterms)

[lil retard @comic]

$MSTR @phongle & other director selling $15m worth of shares yesterday

This is who you are paying insane salaries to literally go blow your money up

You can buy bitcoin with $0 salary exposure, at better prices than the $MSTR retards and own your BTC

Or you can finance $100m+ in exec compensation for them to spend 11.5% to borrow more money and lose yours

With this $15m sale alone you could hire a small trading shop and run your own treasury company lmao

Wake
The
Fuck
Up

[Krugman @krugman87]

If any 1 of these guys are bullposting a coin, you're not early. If all 3 of them are bullposting a coin, you're *definitely* not early. If all 3 of them are bullposting a coin and said coin is already up more than 10x, and you still buy in, you probably need to find a new hobby.

[Krugman @krugman87]

Imagine buying crypto on an 11.5% credit card, leaving yourself enough cash to pay the monthly payment for 6 months, and hoping your buys rise fast enough that you can sell it to pay the monthly payments and still make money.

Except right after you buy the crypto it crashes and now you have to sell even more at a loss to cover the same monthly interest payment.

That's what Saylor did.

[Georgie Boy 👽 The Alien Boy @fockgeorgieboy]

The worst of our industry

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran says negotiations have now fallen apart completely, seizing all messaging channels with the US following new US strikes on commercial vessels in southern Iran and the ongoing Israeli military's invasion of southern Lebanon, per Fars.

Iran also says talks were already fully deadlocked over the US refusing to release $24 billion in frozen funds without nuclear concessions in return. Iran is also rejecting Al Arabiya's claim today that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium to a third country, calling it "incorrect" with nuclear discussions being "fundamentally not on the current negotiation agenda."

[CBB @Cbb0fe]

The risk/reward of putting your capital in crypto has never looked worse.

Not only are returns getting compressed, but AI is massively increasing the attack surface for hacks.

Crypto is no longer the best place on the internet to achieve financial freedom.

[XY @xydotdot]

BTC is dead to me.

For the first time since 2014, when my usual “should I buy BTC?” friends came for their scheduled emotional support hotline, I told them no.

I am confident there is no longer a trade in BTC because the original trade is gone.

BTC was the first memecoin.

Do not waste time @'ing me, to me it is obvious.

As you all know, every great memecoin needs a narrative powerful enough to make people believe they are doing something more meaningful than buying an asset from someone else. BTC had the best narrative of all time.

Rebellion against inflation, fiat, banks, central banks, and the establishment.

That was the narrative. But what mattered more was the raw engine underneath it: ESCAPE.

BTC gave ordinary people the first internet native asset that could plausibly let them escape the rat race without needing access to the incumbent class. Before BTC, immense wealth creation was mostly gated by proximity. You needed access to early equity, private deals, high finance, institutional networks, valuable real estate, or some other lane controlled by people already inside the system (Boomers). BTC changed that because anyone online could buy the asset before the ruling class.

That was BTC’s trade and its monopoly.

It gave ordinary people a way to escape the rat race by opting out of a system that had kept access, upside, and wealth creation mostly in the hands of the incumbent class.

The rebellion was the story -> The escape was the trade -> The monopoly was being the only asset online that could credibly offer both.

That monopoly no longer exists.

The irony is that BTC created the blueprint for the world that made BTC less important. It taught the internet that an asset did not need traditional fundamentals if it had belief, liquidity, attention, narrative, and enough people willing to treat the trade as a way out.

Financial nihilism + magic internet money.

That is the blueprint BTC gave the world. Forget fundamentals. Trade the narrative. Coordinate online. Let the greater fool mechanism create wealth for the people who arrived early enough.

Think about it......Since BTC, every market has been hyper gamblified. Stocks trade like memes. Coins trade like memes. AI tokens trade like memes. Prediction markets trade like memes. Anything that lives on the internet can become a trade, a belief system, and a possible escape hatch from the rat race.

BTC was powerful when it was the only internet asset that gave outsiders a credible way to get rich before the establishment arrived. Now the internet creates that setup constantly.

BTC also lost the rebellion narrative. Institutional adoption killed that part of the story. The asset that started as a way to opt out of the system is now owned through ETFs, marketed by asset managers, held by corporate treasuries, and represented culturally by Saylor running a balance sheet strategy.

BTC lost the 2 things that made it matter.

It lost the rebellion because the establishment absorbed it.

It lost the escape monopoly because every internet asset now competes to become the next rat race exit.

The store of value story was always secondary. The inflation hedge story was always secondary. The hard money story was always secondary. The main function was escape.

BTC was the first trade that made outsiders believe they could beat the system from outside the system.

Now that function lives everywhere.

To all the BTC maxis, with love.

-XY

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

If Strategy sells MSTR to pay the dividend, it's a ponzi.

If Strategy sells Bitcoin to pay the dividend, it's a death spiral.

If Strategy sells STRC to buy Bitcoin, the common stockholders are being "diluted".

If Strategy uses the USD reserve to pay off the debt, it's a "fatal error".

At some point you have to realize the bear thesis has become a Choose Your Own Adventure book for people who hate the ending.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran has launched a massive ballistic missile and drone attack, striking the US 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain along with US bases in Kuwait, Ali Al Salem + Arifjan, and an oil tanker near Dubai, in response to new US strikes on Qeshm Island and an Iranian oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, per Tasnim.

Iran says it has officially abandoned tit-for-tat retaliation, now striking back "at least 1.5x as hard" for every US attack, with IRGC warning "disrupting the security of the Strait of Hormuz will have a heavy price for the invading US military."

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Iran strikes Kuwait and Bahrain today, likely in response for a strike on a vessel near Kharg earlier today.

To be frank, these are necessary and logical moves by Iran. The United States is clearly testing and proving the Iranian’s ability to strike, and more importantly, their willingness to do so.

Unfortunately for the U.S… Iran seems plenty willing to go back to war, and the United States, and Trump in particular, clearly want an off-ramp.

This divergence will only lead to greater Iranian leverage at the negotiating table.

[Keyboard Monkey -KBM- @KeyboardMonkey3]

Institutional and other investors thought they signed up for volatility when they allocated to BTC. Yet it’s been completely dead or just goes down.

It’s going a lot lower before this is over. Genuinely think Saylor needs to exit before this thing will be investable again.

[perry @perry8888_]

MicroStrategy's position is deteriorating rapidly. In 4 months:

— USD reserves is down 60% to $900M
— Annual div obligations DOUBLED $835M → $1.65B
— Reserve coverage shrank 30 months → 7 months
— BTC sold: 32 BTC (first since 2022)
— STRC @ 11.5%, now trading below par at $97.11

Saylor is running out of cash and options

$MSTR still trades at 1.2mNAV which should provide some short-term relief, but with ~$137M in monthly div expense, it's gonna get uncomfortable

[jasperthefriendlyghost.eth @drjasper_eth]

Are y'all following the STRC shit?

The single largest holder of STRC shares is a stablecoin protocol. They have $300m in shares and loop it for the stable. This propped up STRC for a while even when MSTR was at a discount. Now STRC is below 100 and saylor has been forced to sell BTC to cover the divident payment. If STRC keeps going down, the stablecoin protocol could get liquidated and forced to sell the STRC. This would be devastating to Saylor's ability to finance anything and not sell BTC

The game seems ogre