Faust

Come back Q4 2026 👺

[conduct|r @conductr_]

Yesterday I watched “Soul” to remind myself that maybe the purpose of life isn’t always finding some big purpose. It’s simply being present enough to enjoy being alive.

[Faust @humminglord]

@TraderMercury It's over for me, I guess.

[Faust @humminglord]

@venture_charts Based on your video, it seems your view is that BTC will likely pull back in October, so now isn't the right time to buy BTC. But is this chart actually for a stock?

[MM₿ @MM_BTC]

Long term view

If we're lucky, we get a left-translated next cycle into 2027. We will see.

[venture @venture_charts]

bitcoin:native

Well that is 84k on 21st September and that was set out on the last bitcoin:native video update.

[RickUntZ @chrono_chartist]

Done.

[CryptoBullet @CryptoBullet1]

$BTC first weekly close above the 50-Week MA since November 2025! 👀

(Ideally we need 3 consecutive closes above to confirm the breakout)

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

Just a reminder you don't need to rush bottoms. They give you a lot of opportunities. You do need to rush selling tops but that's where people always get complacent.

[Faust @humminglord]

@MMSniperSol Hi, I'm a new follower here. Do you see that BTC already top for this cycle? I'm out of the market and I'm not sure when to get back in.

[Malaton @mlton26]

🚨 Malaton’s Take: Why Bitcoin Dumps at US Open And Why Smart Money Isn’t Panicking

Every day the timeline freaks out about “mystery dumps” at the US session open.

But Bloomberg just confirmed what anyone who actually understands flows already knew:

👉 It’s not fundamentals breaking. It’s not ETFs dying. It’s not retail panic.
It’s strategic accumulation.

High-frequency desks like Jane Street have allegedly been selling aggressively into the open to push price into liquidity pockets, then buying back cheaper and repeating the cycle to build massive size.

They reportedly hold $2.5B BTC via IBIT.
This isn’t bearish.
This is textbook accumulation behavior before a macro trend shift.

So here’s the real signal (not the noise):

1. Institutional demand remains firm, corporate buyers & sovereign allocators are still accumulating.
2. Retail is barely here, perfect. Sentiment is washed.
3. ETF flows slowed, not reversed, typical pre-FOMC positioning.
4. 87% probability of a 25bps cut, but Powell’s tone matters more than the cut.
5. Liquidity cycle bottomed, global easing begins in 2025. Historically, that’s when Bitcoin’s largest moves start.

The “dumps” aren’t the story.
The macro liquidity wave forming underneath is.

My positioning view (long-term investors only):

🛑 Stop reacting to intraday noise.
Those dumps are engineered to shake out emotional traders.

🔥 Accumulate on structurally driven dips, not headlines.
If institutions are manipulating price to get size… why wouldn’t you follow the smarter side?

📈 Focus on liquidity, rates, and positioning, not charts drawn with crayons.

When global liquidity flips, BTC doesn’t just trend, it elastic-snaps upward 🚀

People watching 5-minute candles will miss the whole move.

People watching macro will ride it.

[CryptoBullet @CryptoBullet1]

#BTC Cycle Top is in. $OTHERSBTC ( $Alts against #BTC) has bottomed out. How is that even possible?

Well, actually, it’s nothing new. We had the same situation back in September 2019 👈

That's when $BTC was consolidating -30% below the Top after an intense 7-month rally off the bear market bottom and $OTEHRSBTC was sitting at the cycle low.

That's exactly what we have right now, but on a bigger scale:

- $BTC was going up for much longer (35 months instead of 7 months in 2018-2019)
- $OTEHRSBTC has been going down for 4 years straight! (more than twice as long as the previous OTHERS/BTC bear market)

And one more thing - the Fed just ended QT on Dec 1, 2025 (yesterday) 📍
When did we have that in the previous cycle? Yep, in September 2019!

So we're in a pretty similar environment right now.
Back then $BTC had a -63% pullback while $OTHERSBTC rose by +65% (and kept going up until $BTC went parabolic from $11k to $40k)

Conclusion: $BTC has topped out like in 2019, but this time it's the Cycle Top. On October 10 $OTHERSBTC likely reached the Cycle Bottom, no more serious bleeding for $Alts against $BTC.

👉 Next Year I'm expecting a nasty $BTC correction (Bear Market);
👉 In the next 2-3 months I’m expecting a good Bounce on $OTHERSBTC (liquidity rotation/mini Altseason) during the #BTC Dead Cat Bounce;
👉 In 2019-2020 $OTHERSBTC was going up (Relief Rally) while $BTCUSD was going down, so maybe we'll have the same throughout 2026.

💡 Crazy Parabolic Phase on $Alts (the big Altseason) will only happen in the next cycle (2027-2029)

[Koroush AK @KoroushAK]

Make 2 things an absolute priority in your trading:

1. Protecting your starting capital
Without this, you can't trade

2. Protecting the profits you make
Without this, you can't grow/ scale

A proven risk strategy helps you do both at the same time.

[Whale Insider @WhaleInsider]

JUST IN: $SOL ETFs see 19 consecutive days of inflows.

[Faust @humminglord]

@AskCryptoWealth Thank you. You're like the only big account who actually answer my noob questions. Have a great day, sir.

[Satoshi Flipper @SatoshiFlipper]

Here's how the 4 year cycle debate gets resolved:

If $BTC has topped and the 4 year cycle is intact based on the halving, then all of 2026 will be a traditional bear market year where $BTC goes down only until its bear market bottom and ALTS continue to get nuked into oblivion and bleed until the true bottom is in.

If $BTC has not topped (ie we just went through an extended correction) and the 4 year cycle proves to be an illusion and is dead, then $BTC will set its bull market top in the first half of 2026 when the US Business cycle peaks. We still have tons of bullish tailwinds to price in: end of QT, Trump stimmies, Fed Reserve rate cuts, etc

Choose your fighter, it's still all up in the air ...

[Faust @humminglord]

@thewooofwallst Yes please

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

when people ask me what I would do right now if I were still holding onto underwater positions, my answer is always the same:

I don’t know.

but that’s exactly the point

you had to be courageous in cutting positions, admitting loss, then choosing to be conservative earlier when things were less clear

not after the market sells off -40%-90%

the fact that I wouldn’t know what I would do now after the market sold off heavy, if I hadn’t restructured the approach earlier, is the appeal to remaining disciplined and doing that 1.5months ago

I know this answer seems like a slap in the face now, but it’s the cold hard truth [and I also wrote like 37 posts about doing nothing, allowing market to show strength again, and calling every green candle a relief bounce, etc. so it’s not hindsight]

if you don’t like the results you’ve granted yourself: do something about it next time

best advice I could possibly give:

cure causes, don’t treat symptoms.

figuring out how to get yourself out of a shitty situation today is attempting to remedy symptoms

figuring out how you managed to get yourself into that situation, and disallowing it to ever happen again, is curing the cause

I’d advocate to focus on bigger picture. many of you, like me, are still young, and will have countless generational opportunities presented to you throughout your lifetimes

your experiences of today, or during a 3-year bullmarket cycle, will prove to be invaluable over other market participants that are unwilling, or unable, to turn things around for themselves

experience has the ability to be an edge,

but only if you don’t let it go to waste.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Learn this early🦉

[Miad @ZFXtrading]

I just backtested 10 years of Bitcoin data against 105 financial indicators

Only a handful of signals predict BTC 4–6 weeks out, here they are: