Soalan 17: Sdr Raf nak sambung belajar? Jawapan: Ada plan, maybe law or history & religious studies
Soalan 18: Apa masalah laksana reform? Jawapan: PKR & PH dilihat oleh PM tiada kekuatan, PM nak kena jaga hati penjawat awam, PM tiada certainty & clarity budaya yg perlu tukar
Initiated the transfer from https://t.co/Q1rmaSYS2c 19:48 and received it in my @IBKR USD account at 20:37.
Zero fees.
Less than 60mins to clear. (probably faster for banking hours)
With named payouts allowing you to receive transfers in your name, this makes @nativemarkets one of the best on/off ramp in crypto.
Prior to this, I had to route stables to off-ramp entities wait for T+1 to receive it in a bank then wait for another T+1/2 to get stables over to IBKR with fees.
Now you can do it at 0 fee from HL<> IBKR with USDH<>USD
Colossus Magazine just published a deep profile on Jeffrey Yan, the 31-year-old behind Hyperliquid, a crypto trading exchange that generated over $900 million in profit last year with 11 employees. He turned down $100 million in VC funding, airdropped billions in tokens to strangers, and now needs a bodyguard to leave his office. Here's the breakdown:
> Hyperliquid is a blockchain with a trading exchange built on top. Users keep custody of their own money and all accounting is on-chain. It has a $10 billion market cap and has never taken a dollar of venture capital.
> Yan started with $10,000 in personal savings running an anonymous trading operation called Chameleon Trading from a one-bedroom apartment in Puerto Rico, working 100+ hour weeks off a TV screen while his partner got roughly 30 minutes of his attention per day.
> The 11-person team generated $900 million in profit last year. Their office has 34 stuffed animal toys and their cleaner thinks they're a merchandising company that makes stuffed cats.
> Yan won gold at the International Physics Olympiad at 18, finished first out of 150 students in Harvard's notoriously difficult CS 124 course as a freshman, and left Hudson River Trading after eight months because he couldn't answer the question "What value are you adding to the world?"
> When VCs offered around $100 million at a billion-dollar valuation, Yan took a weekend to think, then told his co-founder iliensinc "We're not going to take it." Her response was "What the fuck?"
> On November 29, 2024, Hyperliquid airdropped 31% of its total token supply to roughly 94,000 early users with no conditions or vesting. At all-time highs, the airdrop was worth $16 billion. The team received nothing that day.
> Independent builders are now launching products on the platform that Yan's team never built. Trade[XYZ] listed a perpetual on the S&P 500, officially licensed by S&P Dow Jones Indices, that trades around the clock including weekends. When the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on a Saturday, Hyperliquid's crude oil volume went from $21 million to $3.7 billion while the CME was closed.
> In March 2025, a trader exploited HLP (the community vault) through a coordinated attack on an obscure token called Jelly Jelly, causing $12 million in losses before Yan's team intervened by delisting the token and settling at a fair price. The vault recovered its losses within 24 hours.
> Yan's college friends include Scott Wu (co-founder of Cognition AI), Alexandr Wang (Scale AI), and Jesse Zhang (Decagon). At an HRT internship, Wu and Yan finished first and second in every round of a three-week competition.
> The team eats lunch together daily. On Thursdays they eat Chipotle, but there's no Chipotle in Singapore, so they gave the recipes to their chef. Yan owns 15 pairs of the same Lululemon shorts and 10 of the same T-shirts, and cuts his own hair because going to a barber takes time.
BCA Research Hormuz Dashboard... open to the general public (not behind paywall). Use it to track data on the crisis and its market impact. Bookmark this page!
https://t.co/2w3YrSskk8
If you want to know when it’s time to get bearish oil, just watch refining margins.
In COVID, some of the signals were:
First, these signals peaked.
Floating storage
Tanker rates
Contango
After, refining margins, which were negative in early May started to rebound.
Refining margins only rebounded because product storage started to drain.
Refineries at the time were in a precarious place. OPEC+ had just reduced production by 10 million b/d. Mandatory lockdowns destroyed oil demand, so refining margins had to go up in order for crude oil to rally.
When it finally did, that was when crude started to rally with a bit more leg.
This time around, a similar playbook will happen but in reverse.
Refining margins will be a key indicator for when the global economy cannot handle higher prices any longer. We are already seeing some of that in Southeast Asia, but it’s not widespread yet.
Once you hear about how refineries are forced to cut throughput and can no longer afford crude, that will be the signal to sell your crude oil longs.
On Friday, I presented a risk assessment briefing re the Iran war to my team on an internal call. We thought it was worth sharing the notes (which were AI-transcribed & summarized), so here goes. Posting without much editing to save time.
The difference in Strait activity from when #3 first arrived / began observing the strait about 4-5 days ago to today is stark. Traffic has meaningfully picked up - there are still “dark” runs and ships transiting without AIS turned on, but there’s a lot more going along the coast of Oman. At least 15 ships have crossed, including at least 3 VLCCs.
When we arrived, virtually none were going through. Then a trickle through the Qeshm channel. It’s meaningful now, could be talking low double digit percent of pre-conflict volume. Meanwhile, expectations for a US operation involving “boots on the ground” within the next week or two are still high among locals.
When analyst #3 first got to the strait we were hopeful we’d get a clear cut answer - bullish or bearish, open or closed, war or deal. It soon became clear that was the wrong framework through which to view this trip. On the same day that we learned it was the broad expectation of nearly everyone in the region - from locals to informed parties - that US ground troops would be launching an operation (“boots on the ground!”), we also observed multiple ships beginning to cross the strait. Soon they weren’t just limited to the Qeshm channel.
It is clear to us that this isn’t as much a story in isolation as it is a story about the multipolar world and how it’s rapidly changing from what we’re used to. It’s a story about parallel warfare and diplomacy, US promises for the “Stone Age” in tandem with Allies’ seeking new venues for negotiation, and the changing global climate that necessitates this balance.
Before, it would have been unlikely to imagine a world where Japan, the EU and other US allies were negotiating with a country the US is directly in conflict in to secure passage and work on agreements while the US still maintained footing for an escalation of kinetic warfare. Now, that’s simply how the world works. These countries must deal with the issues imposed, as the US won’t be sorting it out on their behalf.
It’s undeniable the world is very different now and viewing this conflict through the lens of the past 50 years is a flawed approach. On Sunday, we will release our report that covers in depth what we’ve learned, how complex the situation is and what investment implications and nuances exist that have longer term implications than the next 100 points on SPX.
I’m surprised that any traders were holding out hope that Trump will pull out of Iran anytime soon. Maybe there is an echo chamber on Wall Street that I’m not aware of. They are clearly putting boots on the ground. You can’t put a timeline of 1-2 weeks on taking over Iran’s uranium and Kharg Island. It could take months, it could completely fail. Nobody knows. “Making progress towards military objectives” is now code for boots on the ground. “Ahead of schedule” is just backward looking and tells us nothing about how much longer the the Srait of Hormuz will be closed.