bugsy

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says the Fed should have cut interest rates to 1% or lower and says the US is “carrying” countries with which it runs trade deficits.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The 10Y Note Yield rises to 5.04%, its highest level since July 2007.

This pushes the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage up to 7.17%.

Homeownership is officially a luxury.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

There you have it folks.

We now have all the relevant data that we will get prior to the September 16th Fed meeting.

US PPI inflation is up to +5.4%, the US economy tripped expectations and added +162,000 jobs in August, and US CPI inflation is at +3.4%.

We also have $100+ oil prices, record high diesel prices, and inflation at least 140 basis points above the Fed's 2.0% target.

Keep in mind, whatever the Fed does, they will NOT be providing guidance.

Needless to say, next week is going to be a highly eventful week.

Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter to receive real time analysis as this develops.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

That was fast.

Another 8 hours later and the 10Y Note Yield is now pushing into 5.00% with US oil prices above $104/barrel.

If US CPI inflation comes in hot tomorrow, things are going to get very ugly.

The US economy cannot afford higher rates.

Something has to give.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Talk about a turn of events.

Oil prices are back above $100, PPI inflation is up to +5.4%, and President Trump is preparing potential $5,000 "dividends."

Now, US long-term borrowing costs are up to their highest since June 2007.

What comes next? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[vnkumar trades 🏌🏽‍♂️🏇🏋🏻‍♂️🐆 @vnkumarvnk]

$SNDK END OF ERA! 🩸

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

The market is trying to decide if the rotation trade is going to martialize fully or if beta to the semis should increase.

Certain spaces like Insurance, Healthcare, Biotech, financial services are extended as we continued higher over the past week and into multi-month breakouts.

Relative strength is moving away from tech, but if the rest gets too extended, the risk of a market wide pullback increases.

Todays headlines:

*US IS REVOKING IRAN-RELATED GENERAL LICENSE TO EXPORT OIL

*IRAN'S ACTIONS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WHOLLY UNACCEPTABLE: OFFICIAL

*U.S. MILITARY: FORCES HAVE BEGUN LAUNCHING A SERIES OF POWERFUL STRIKES AGAINST IRAN

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Meta, $META, is developing a cloud infrastructure business that will sell access to AI compute and aims to compete with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, per Bloomberg.

Meta shares are surging over +7% on the news.

[47 @47djv]

get your spark back, lil nigga

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: SpaceX, $SPCX, is being added to the Nasdaq 100 on July 7th.

This marks the fastest inclusion into the Nasdaq 100 in the index’s history.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

WALL STREET MOVES TOWARD 24-HOUR TRADING AS BANKS AND EXCHANGES BUILD ALWAYS-ON MARKETS

Major U.S. banks, trading firms, and stock exchanges are working toward a new financial market structure that could allow trading of stocks and other assets 24 hours a day, mirroring the around-the-clock nature of cryptocurrencies and global electronic markets.

[bugsy @hyrstwealth]

@brivael You’re right but imo at the wrong time.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Market volatility is picking up:

The Nasdaq 100 index posted 5 consecutive trading days ending Thursday with a move of at least 1% in either direction, the longest streak since August 2024.

This also matches the streak recorded in April 2025 during market turmoil following Liberation Day.

The information technology sector also ranked among both the strongest and weakest-performing sectors in the S&P 500 across 4 of the 5 trading sessions ending Thursday.

As a result, the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index, $VXN, jumped +11 points in 5 days, or +49%, to its highest level since April 2025.

Volatility remains elevated across the technology sector.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

$SPCX - SPACEX IPO: THE BIGGEST BET IN MARKET HISTORY

SpaceX is really three businesses under one stock:

Starlink is the profit engine, generating $11.4B in revenue and $4.4B in operating profit in 2025. Subscribers grew from 2.3M in 2023 to over 10M by early 2026.
SpaceX Launches generated $4.1B in revenue but lost money due to massive investment in Starship, the rocket intended to dramatically lower launch costs.
AI (xAI + X) generated $3.2B in revenue but lost $6.4B in 2025, consuming all of Starlink's profits and more.

Without AI, SpaceX was profitable. With AI, it lost nearly $5B in 2025 and another $4.3B in Q1 2026 alone.

The IPO values SpaceX at $1.77 trillion, but only 4.3% of shares will trade initially. That limited float could drive strong early demand and volatility while making true price discovery difficult.

Retail investors are getting access to just 1.3% of the company, while insiders and major funds remain largely locked up. Those restrictions begin easing within months, potentially increasing selling pressure.

SpaceX will not immediately join the S&P 500, as it currently fails key inclusion requirements, delaying an estimated $14B of passive index-fund buying.

The biggest risk is valuation. At roughly 90x sales, SpaceX is trading at a premium far above the largest technology companies. Historical IPO research shows that highly valued, low-float, unprofitable IPOs often deliver strong first-day gains but weaker long-term returns.

The bullish case is simple: SpaceX dominates satellite internet and commercial launches, and Starship could reshape the economics of space. The bearish case is that investors are paying an unprecedented price today for profits that may arrive years from now.

Bottom line: SpaceX may become one of the most important companies of the century. But this IPO looks designed to maximize demand in the short term, while much of the future selling pressure arrives later. For retail investors, the excitement is obvious—the risk is whether today's valuation already prices in most of the future success.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices collapse below $87/barrel after President Trump cancels scheduled strikes on Iran.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 surges over +100 points after President Trump says the time and place of an Iran deal signing will be “announced shortly."

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BOFA SEES SPORTS BETTING AND FINANCE MARKETS CONVERGING

Bank of America says sports betting, crypto, and financial speculation are converging, creating long-term growth opportunities for operators. It highlights rising use of perpetual futures, high-leverage derivatives with over $90 trillion in annual volume, as a key driver of innovation. BofA expects sportsbooks to expand into gamified prediction markets, including event-based contracts on athletes and teams, as retail demand and regulatory shifts accelerate sector convergence.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US technology sector has rallied +42% over the last 2 months, the largest 2-month gain in 24 years.

This also marks the 2nd-strongest rally this century, surpassing even the +40% gain seen during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.

The surge has been largely fueled by chip stocks, with the Semiconductor Index, $SOX, rising +66% over the same period.

By comparison, the S&P 500 is up +16% while the Dow is up +10% over the same time period.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up +20% since the March 30th low, with the top 10 stocks contributing ~65% of the index's gains.

Half of the top 10 contributors were semiconductor stocks.

The AI trade is hotter than ever.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Well, looks like Iran War is about to end.

Markets/Indexes are probably going like this Monday.

Probably even better for Europe/Taiwan/Korean equities that were dragged down more from oil fears.

If something goes up during this time… probably goes higher in better macro.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Weird times.

First we get news of a near-deal from multiple sources close to the white house on Wednesday/Thursday

Oil was about to breakout higher and yields as well and the news led to a fail and strong sell lower...

The next day we hear about these being false claims, stating that despite the progress made, the difference are still big.

Enriched Uranium which seemed to have been approved for a Russian transfer all of the sudden were not on the table anymore.

At the same time Trump is canceling his trip to his sons wedding to remain in Washington and Tulsi, which has been against eh war resigns.

All of this heading into a long weekend that has often been used to start decisive actions and started this war in the first place.

And while all of this all points to one outcome... Oil is trading lower??

Either this is all part of negotiations and we are so close that Trump wants this close off or the market is getting this wildly wrong. The market is clearly showing it believes in a deal or at least no escalation so far.