Sam Collier

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@AuclairsDad Idk if you know this or not, but if you can capture the OHLC and indicator data from your charting system, Claude can build a simulator in Python to rapid prototype changes. Then you only have to actually run the ones you intend to adopt to confirm Claude didn’t fake the results

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

I just went 82-0, think you can go 82-0? https://t.co/IlAMCnhRSX #NBA #82and0

[Heath Mayo @HeathMayo]

A few humble suggestions for the next time we go to war, drawn from this utter national embarrassment:

—Our political leaders should have at least some clue as to what they are trying to accomplish before they give the attack orders.

—Those objectives should be clearly and consistently communicated to the American people and the world, instead of through unhinged late-night mobster tweets.

—Our allies should be informed beforehand and brought into the strategy to ensure strategic success.

—Congress should be pre-briefed and vote to approve the war declaration shortly after hostilities commence to give the American people confidence that there is broad support in the government for the decision and not just one man’s whim.

[Very Brexit Problems @VeryBrexitProbs]

MAGA calls Europe freeloaders. Here’s what they’re not telling you.

​1. Ramstein Air Base, the most important US military hub outside America, is built on German land provided rent-free, with Germany contributing hundreds of millions to its upkeep. The US couldn’t replace it anywhere in the world.

2. Every US military operation in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia flows through Ramstein. Lose it and US power projection in the Eastern Hemisphere is crippled.

3. The UK provides and maintains RAF Lakenheath used almost entirely by the US Air Force. Italy provides Aviano. Greece provides Souda Bay. Turkey provides Incirlik. European land. European infrastructure. American operations.

4. The US Sixth Fleet depends entirely on European ports for fuel and supplies. Souda Bay, Naples, 11 Greek ports. Without them the Sixth Fleet cannot operate in the Mediterranean or project power into the Middle East.

5. The majority of NATO’s intelligence and surveillance capacity is hosted on European soil and fed directly to the CIA, NSA and Pentagon.

6. Early warning radar at Fylingdales, UK. Missile tracking in Greenland. Norwegian monitoring stations near Russia. All dependent on European goodwill.

7. It would cost America MORE to bring the troops home than keep them here. European hosts subsidise roughly a third of all basing costs.

8. Europe is America’s largest arms customer. Stop buying American and part of their defence industry goes bankrupt.

9. The bases aren’t charity. They’re America using European soil, European money and European goodwill to project power across the world.

10. We’re not the freeloaders.

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@JuddPDeere Saw you on TV too

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

I agree that the SPR release is necessary. You have to do it just to slow down demand destruction even a little bit.

But even if they're considering a coordinated release of 300-400 million barrels like the FT reported, all that volume isn't hitting the market instantly.

After the US decided to release 180 million barrels of SPR in 2022, the most they ever released in a single week was 8.4 million barrels in the week ending 2022/9/4.

We've got a supply disruption of over 10mb/d in the Middle East, but the historical max release rate is only ~1.2mb/d.

The US, which holds the most SPR among Western nations, stores its oil in underground salt caverns, not regular surface tanks.

These salt caverns are spread across four major sites along the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana: Bryan Mound, Big Hill, West Hackberry, and Bayou Choctaw.

They're artificial caves drilled into giant salt layers a thousand feet underground, and each cave is big enough to fit the Empire State Building.

To pull the oil up, they inject freshwater into the bottom of the cave. Since water is heavier than oil, it pushes the oil upward.

In theory, the max release capacity of the US SPR is estimated to be around ~4mb/d. In reality, there were several physical constraints that kept the weekly max at 8.4 million barrels.

Every time you inject water to push the oil out, the salt walls dissolve a little(Leaching). If you keep releasing at a large scale for a long time like in 2022, it can mess up the cavern's structural stability.

If the cave gets too big or the walls get too thin, there's a risk of collapse, so the DOE had to control the release speed to protect the caverns.

The oil pushed up from the caves has to travel through pipelines to nearby refineries or port terminals. At the time, the SPR volume overlapped with commercial oil flows, and pipeline capacity hit a saturation point.

Also, since the tanker berths and pump capacities for loading oil onto ships are limited, it takes physical time to handle all that volume pouring out at once.

Lastly, SPR releases happen through an auction process. No matter how much you want to release, the refiners or traders who buy it need to have the storage space or refining capacity to actually take it.

Given the current logistics network of the US oil industry, there’s bound to be a limit on how much the winners can take at their desired timing.

In conclusion, everyone could've predicted the SPR release. But what we need is oil that's available right now.

With refineries and petrochemical plants already declaring force majeure, if they don't get feedstock immediately, more of them will have to shut down.

So they're desperate to get feedstock somehow. You can't offset a loss of over 10mb/d with a supply rate of 1-2mb/d.

Without a solution to the fundamental problem (Strait of Hormuz), the upside pressure on the front end of the curve won't go away.

It’ll just let out a little steam, but it’ll still be hot.

#oott #com

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@waveryder91 They’re antihistamines that may help your sinuses, sure. NyQuil works because it also has an antihistamine (doxylamine succinate) that makes you drowsy. Xyzal and Zyrtec are newer antihistamines with a more subtle drowsiness effect but also less side effects

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@waveryder91 Take an allergy pill like Xyzal or Zyrtec

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@assface_burner @unusual_whales https://t.co/f0s3ZJkSaM is a new platform that just came out @spxomega

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@AuclairsDad I don’t think the strategy I’m building is actually viable yet, but I’m getting 1.72 and it’s from aggressive stop management after entry. If 10 pts SLBE+5. My system is really good at letting plays run but every trailing stop method I’ve tried cuts too many huge plays too soon.

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@assface_burner The amylu pamessan black pepper sausages are really good as well

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@AuclairsDad Like seriously consider building a separate computer that doesn’t have access to all your financial accounts to experiment on it with

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@AuclairsDad You do you, but be very careful about giving control of your computer to an AI agent. You literally have no idea what it may do when you’re not looking. If it has control, you have nearly uncapped risk exposure

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@AuclairsDad He walks around the Florida Everglades barefoot and boops “swamp puppies” and yoinks all manner of poisonous or dangerous creatures

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@AuclairsDad Have you seen fishingarrett tho?

[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@__dc77 I haven’t even had time to check out your other indicators yet, but the rotations one is super helpful. Friday NQ respected the rotations repeatedly using them as support and resistance throughout the day and then closing at -5 rotations

[Execute Your Edge @executeyouredge]

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[Sam Collier @iSam2k]

@__dc77 I’ve been using the 30s OR script for a while and found it very helpful to track rotations. Thanks!

[DC @__dc77]

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[Бианка @BiankaB12]

WARNING: LONG THREAD 🧵
Dear Americans,
Your political and media class has sold you a very convenient fairy tale for decades - the tale of how your tax dollars pay to defend freeloading Europe.

While it's an emotionally satisfying narrative, it's also wrong.

THE U.S. DOES NOT SUBSIDIZE EUROPEAN DEFENCE.

You are not running a charity, you are running an empire. And empires are costly.

Your forward deployments, your bases, your carrier groups, etc. - they are the pillars of a global security architecture that mainly serves you: to protect your trade routes, your currency, your corporate supply chains, your ability to project force anywhere on the planet in hours and days, not months.

Let’s walk through this like adults, and not emotional toddlers, shall we?