Ankit

Learner, Curious, Believe in action than words.

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

The world suffers a lot. Not because of the violence of bad people, But because of the silence of good people!

[Groww @_groww]

The Japanese diplomats had made several trips to Brazil.

The discussion went on for a few years.

This was in the 1970s.

The challenge was that Brazil had vast Cerrado grasslands. These grasslands were mostly flat and vast.

This made these grasslands potentially ideal for agriculture.

But the soil quality was inferior. It was too acidic, lacking in nutrients, and often had elements that killed agricultural plants.

The soil needed to be treated.

This is where the Japanese came in.

They started a program to jointly work together starting in 1979.

The Japanese provided expertise, infrastructure, and funding for the initiative. The soil was treated with multiple different methods. Crops were rotated to increase biomass availability.

It all started bearing fruit in the 1980s.

Brazil obviously wanted that for itself. They wanted food security. They had been independently working on it for decades.

The Japanese assistance catalysed the effort.

Sometime in the 1980s, Brazil went from being a net importer of food to a net exporter of food.

Today, Brazil is also the world’s biggest producer of soybeans.

Japan and Brazil are a world away from each other. Why did they involve themselves in this initiative half a world away in Brazil?

The answer is that a long chain of unexpected events pushed them to it.

Peruvian Anchoveta Crisis of 1972

Peru was one of the biggest suppliers of this fish called the Peruvian anchoveta.

This tiny fish is not a particular favourite among people. But this fish had become an extremely integral part of the world’s food supply chain system.

Peruvian anchoveta was used as fishmeal. It was the food fed to fish and chickens. And fish and chickens are what is critical in the global food supply chain system.

In 1972, Peru suddenly banned fishing for the Peruvian anchoveta.

Every year, fishermen would go out into the Pacific Ocean to catch them.

In 1972, the population of these fish was so low, Peru had no choice but to ban the fishing outright.

Why?

In April, the waters had suddenly turned warmer than usual, and the fish either didn’t reproduce enough or were driven away somewhere else.

Seeing the record low numbers, scientists warned the government about the risk of damaging the existing population from overfishing.

Thus, the ban was enforced.

The warm waters alone weren’t responsible for the fish population crash. Overfishing too was a factor. But the warm waters really pushed it over the edge.

Despite the warnings of the scientists, the government allowed fishing again with strict restrictions.

Still, the chain effect of damage had been done.

Peru was one of the biggest suppliers of these fish. In the absence of this fish, farmers turned to another crop to feed their fish and chickens. Soybeans.

The US was already a large producer of soybeans. But the Peruvian anchoveta shortage was so large, the US decided to restrict the export of soybeans in 1973.

And that was where the Japanese came in. They were heavy importers of soybeans.

Over-reliance on the US for these beans spooked them. They wanted to diversify their soybean supply, among other food items.

They looked across the world. One of the few countries they decided to rely on was Brazil.

Today, Brazil is the world’s largest producer of soybeans, and the US is the second largest.

Combined, today both these countries supply over 65% of the world’s soybeans.

Eventually the Peruvian anchoveta’s population recovered. But the farmers who relied on them to feed their fish and chickens had switched to soybeans.

Many never went back to the anchoveta.

Now, why exactly did the Pacific waters turn warm in 1972?

El Nino

El Nino. That’s the effect’s name.

The oceans are kilometers deep. The top layer of the ocean gets heated by the sun. The bottom layers do not get much sun. So it remains cooler.

Trade winds blow across the Earth’s equator. They blow from the east to the west.

The Pacific Ocean is the world’s biggest ocean. If you took a flight from South America to Australia, it would take you 12 hours to cross the Pacific Ocean.

Over this vast ocean, the winds blow from east to west, from near the Americas to Asia and Australia.

These winds push the topmost water layer towards the west.

So we get more warm water near Asia and Australia. To fill the empty space, colder water rises from beneath the ocean and rises to the surface near the east.

The cooler water from below is rich in nutrients. They support abundant life. Which is why the East Pacific Ocean makes for such great fishing waters.

Normal years:

Sometimes, these trade winds weaken.

This means that not enough warm surface water gets pushed west. So, it stays near the Americas. The less nutrient-rich warm water leads to fewer fish.

This is called El Nino.

El Nino years:

It does not occur at fixed intervals. It can happen anywhere from every 2 to 7 years. When it does occur, it lasts for about 9-12 months. Some have lasted longer than that though.

El Nino is why Peru experienced the 1972 Peruvian Anchoveta Crisis.

That, unfortunately, is a fairly localised event.

El Nino has a far greater impact. In fact, its impacts can be felt across the globe.

Effects

The global weather is linked.

One change in one part of the world can affect another.

Given just how massive the Pacific Ocean is, any change in surface temperatures can have a chain impact across the global weather system.

Its effects can be felt across the Americas, Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia.

The regular weather patterns get broken. Some parts experience more dryness than normal. Some experience more rainfall and storms than normal.

The dryness can result in forest fires that are hard to control. The excessive rains can cause flooding and infrastructure disruption.

In India, it often manifests as less-than-normal rainfall in the monsoons. It may also manifest in the form of higher than normal rainfall in winters in parts like Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

During El Nino years, the entire Earth becomes slightly warmer.

What sounds like a minor inconvenience is actually a disruption of giant proportions.

Farming and food supplies get hampered. Loss of livelihood and migration becomes a common pattern in these regions.

Thousands of people die every El Nino event because of the effects of the disrupted weather.

El Nino History

El Ninos aren’t always the same.

Some are massive. Some are less intense.

One of the strongest El Nino years in recent times was only about 2 years ago, in the 2023-24 period.

It was rated as being one of the strongest in the last 2 decades.

Another one in 2015-16 was similarly strong.

Other noteworthy El Nino years have been 2009-10, 2002-03, 1997-98, and 1991-92.

The Peruvian anchoveta example is one example that might help us get a sense of how unexpected and far-reaching the effect of El Nino can be.

Some more examples might aid here.

1991-92

In the 1991-92 period, higher than normal rain led to a vegetation boom in the Southwestern part of the USA.

The denser vegetation resulted in an explosion of mice. A higher-than-normal mouse population led to greater human-mouse contact. And that led to more diseases.

This El Nino resulted in a hantavirus outbreak in 1993 in the region.

1997-98

This El Nino created excessively dry periods in the Southeast Asia region.

Forest fires became so common that they affected tourism, airports, shipping, and health systems. El Nino didn’t directly cause forest fires, but the lack of rains resulted in uncontrollable forest fires.

1876-78

This one’s about 150 years old but is infamous for being one of the deadliest.

It resulted in famines across India, China, parts of Africa, and Brazil. Indirectly, it killed 50 million people.

2026-27

Yes, this year is an El Nino year too.

Yes, there will be disruptions.

And yes, this one’s supposed to be a big one.

What could it mean?

Well, this isn’t the first time. We’ve seen these come and go. We’ve also seen some El Nino years in the recent past.

The challenge with these is that we cannot fully understand all that will happen.

The general expectation is that the country might face severe heat in some parts and extreme flooding in some parts.

That’s the first and most immediate effect. How that will play out for the rest of the system is hard to predict.

We can look at yesteryears to get some sense of this.

One of the most common patterns is less than normal monsoon rainfall.

That impacts the food and agriculture products grown in the country. Any shortages there lead to higher prices of food items.

But then, does it always manifest in that way? Not really. Many times, governments stockpile food in cold storages to prepare for El Nino’s drought years.

So we cannot even say for sure that food prices will climb. They may climb.

Beyond that, the more wacky chain of events cannot be predicted.

It’s not a normal year. But it’s also not a once-in-a-century event.

But we’ve been through these before.

[Groww @_groww]

How much do Banks spend on Pen & Paper?

(Costs for FY25)

[Dr. Priyam Bordoloi @DocPriyamMD]

Which of these everyday habits is ACTUALLY proven to increase your risk of cancer?

​A) Using underarm deodorants
B) Keeping a phone in your pocket
C) Drinking piping hot tea or coffee
D) Reheating food in a microwave

​Unfortunately, I also did this a lot until I knew this!

[Skyroot Aerospace @SkyrootA]

ORBIT ACHIEVED. 🚀

Vikram-1 Test Flight-1 has reached orbit. India's first privately developed orbital rocket has completed its final burn and injected its payloads into a ~450 km orbit, making India the third country in the world with private orbital launch capability.

History is made. 🇮🇳

#Vikram1 #JourneyToOrbit #SkyrootAerospace

[Anil Agarwal @AnilAgarwal_Ved]

बिहार से मेरा रिश्ता सिर्फ जन्म का नहीं, वहाँ से मिले मूल्यों और संस्कारों का भी है। वहीं मैंने सपने देखना सीखा, मेहनत का महत्व समझा और यह भरोसा पाया कि अगर इरादे मजबूत हों, तो कोई भी मंज़िल दूर नहीं होती। आज मैं जो कुछ भी हूँ, उसमें बिहार की मिट्टी का बहुत बड़ा योगदान है। इसलिए जब भी उस धरती के लिए कुछ करने का मौका मिलता है, वह मेरे लिए सिर्फ एक ज़िम्मेदारी नहीं, बल्कि सौभाग्य होता है।

इसी भावना के साथ आज अनिल अग्रवाल फाउंडेशन ने बिहार सरकार के साथ एक महत्वपूर्ण MoU sign किया है।

मैंने शास्त्रों में पढ़ा है कि 6 साल की उम्र तक बच्चों को जो शिक्षा और संस्कार मिलते हैं, वही उनकी पूरी जिंदगी की नींव बनते हैं। हमारा संकल्प पूरे बिहार में नंद घरों के ज़रिए बच्चों की इसी नींव को मजबूत करने का है। यहाँ उन्हें अच्छी शिक्षा मिलेगी, वो अच्छे संस्कार सीखेंगे और उन्हें बेहतर पोषण व स्वास्थ्य सेवाएँ मिलेंगी, जिससे वो आगे जाकर आत्मविश्वास के साथ दुनिया में आगे बढ़ेंगे और अपने उज्ज्वल जीवन का निर्माण कर सकेंगे।

महिलाएँ हमारे देश की आधी आबादी हैं। देश के विकास में उनकी बहुत बड़ी भूमिका है। नंद घर के ज़रिए हमारा प्रयास है कि बिहार की महिलाओं को skill development के नए मौके मिलें जिससे वो आर्थिक रूप से पूरी तरह आत्मनिर्भर बनें। क्योंकि जब एक महिला आगे बढ़ती है, तो उसके साथ एक पूरा परिवार और आने वाली पीढ़ियाँ भी आगे बढ़ती हैं।

और यह सिर्फ एक शुरुआत है। नंद घर के इस कदम के बाद, बिहार का industrial development हमारी अगली सबसे बड़ी प्राथमिकता रहेगा।

आज इस ऐतिहासिक शुरुआत के लिए मैं बिहार के माननीय मुख्यमंत्री श्री @samrat4bjp जी और सभी संबंधित अधिकारियों, district collector, block level officer, का दिल से शुक्रिया अदा करता हूँ। आपके सपोर्ट और विज़न के बिना ज़मीनी स्तर पर इतना बड़ा बदलाव लाना मुमकिन नहीं था।

आइए, इस नंद घर आंदोलन को बिहार के कोने-कोने में ले जाएँ।

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

@theskindoctor13 I have stopped watching news on TV. Their prime counter statement is “look what was 60 yrs before. Bla bla bla…”

[Jaynit @jaynitx]

Bill Ackman literally gave a 44-minute masterclass that explains money better than any business school.

1. Starting early is the single biggest advantage you have. If you save $10,000 at age 22, never add another penny, and earn 10% a year, you have $600,000 by retirement. wait until 32 to start, and the same money only grows to $232,000. The decade you lose at the beginning costs you more than any decade later because compounding does its heaviest lifting at the end.

2. The return rate matters even more than most people grasp. That same $10,000 at 22 earning 10% becomes $600,000. At 15% it becomes over 4 million. At 20%, the rate Warren Buffett has achieved, it becomes 25 million. Einstein called compound interest the most powerful force in the universe. Ackman's lecture is essentially a demonstration of why.

3. Avoiding losses matters as much as chasing returns. if you reach for a 20% return but lose half your money every 12 years from bad decisions or a rough patch, your 25 million collapses to 1.8 million. Buffett's rule one is never lose money. Rule two is never forget rule one. the math of recovery is brutal, so protecting the downside is not caution, it is strategy.

4. Debt is safer, but the upside is capped. Equity is riskier, but the upside is unlimited. In the lemonade stand example, the lender who put up $250 earns a steady 10% and gets paid back first if the business fails. the equity investor who put up $500 earns over 100% if it succeeds but gets wiped out if it fails. The equity holder earns more precisely because they took the risk the lender refused.

5. The risk that matters is permanent loss, not price movement. most people think risk is the stock price bouncing up and down every day. Ackman says ignore that. the real risk is whether you will permanently lose your money. Short-term volatility is noise. the question that matters is whether you get your capital back with a return over the long run.

6. Avoid startups and complicated businesses. You do not need 100% a year to build a fortune. you need 10 to 15% over a long period. so skip the lemonade stands and unknown ventures. Invest in public companies that are established, liquid, and have to clear real hurdles before going public. If you cannot understand how a business makes money, avoid it no matter how good its track record. Ackman cites Enron, a business almost nobody actually understood.

7. Invest in a business you could own forever. if the stock market closed for 10 years, you should not be unhappy holding it. Coca-Cola is his example. easy to understand, sells a syrup and earns a profit on every drink, the population keeps growing, and it is nearly impossible to disrupt with new technology. McDonald's is another. People have to eat, the food is cheap, and they keep growing. find a business you would be comfortable holding through anything.

8. You want products people are loyal to and will pay a premium for. People buy generic flour and sugar without caring about the brand. but they want the Hershey bar, the Cadbury bar, the see's candy specifically. you do not want to sell a commodity that anyone can sell cheaper. You want something unique that customers refuse to substitute even at a 20% discount.

9. Low debt is a safety feature. In the lemonade stand example, $250 of debt was manageable. But if it had been $1,000 and the business hit a rough patch, it could have gone under and wiped out the shareholders. Find companies with little debt or so much profit relative to their interest payments that a bad year cannot sink them.

10. Barriers to entry protect your returns. You want a business that is hard for someone to compete with tomorrow. Coca-Cola's market presence is so strong that you expect to get a Coke at any restaurant. Pepsi has coexisted with it for decades, but neither can put the other out of business. If a competitor can show up next year with a better version and steal the customers, the business is not worth owning long term.

11. The best businesses are immune to outside factors you cannot control. Coca-Cola has survived 120 years through world wars, nuclear weapons, and every kind of crisis, and each year it makes slightly more money. You want companies that do not depend on commodity prices, interest rates, or currency moves. A business that keeps earning regardless of what is happening in the world is the kind you hold forever.

12. Low capital intensity is one of the most underrated qualities. The worst businesses require massive reinvestment to grow. The auto industry has to build enormous factories and buy machine tools before selling a single car, and those tools wear out. GM's stock barely moved over 40 to 50 years for exactly this reason. Coca-Cola, by contrast, sells a formula and collects a royalty. American Express takes a few percent of every dollar spent on its card. a business that earns a royalty on other people's capital is one of the best things you can own.

13. Pay down debt and build a cushion before you invest. If you have high-interest credit card debt, paying it off is a guaranteed return equal to the interest rate. same logic, to a lesser degree, with student loans at 6 or 7%. and you want 6 to 12 months of expenses in the bank so that losing your job tomorrow does not force you to sell. You can only handle market volatility if you do not need the money.

14. Be a buyer when everyone is selling and a seller when everyone is buying. The natural human tendency is the opposite, a lemming-like instinct to sell in a crash and buy in a bubble. people sold into the 1987 crash when they should have been buying. The only way to resist this is to be financially secure enough that the money at risk does not affect your life, so you can withstand the swings without panicking.

15. The stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Ben Graham's idea, which Ackman repeats. short-term prices reflect the whims and emotions of investors. long term, prices reflect the actual value of the underlying businesses. If you buy good businesses at reasonable prices and hold them while they grow, you make money over time as long as you are never forced to sell at the wrong moment.

16. A stock is just a bond where you do not know the coupon. Flip a price-to-earnings ratio over, and you get an earnings yield. A stock at 10 times earnings is a 10% earnings yield, which you can compare directly to a 3% treasury. the difference is the bond's coupon is fixed and the stock's coupon, its earnings, moves up and down. Ackman wants an earnings yield higher than a treasury that will also grow over time, so he does not need to be right about explosive growth to earn a good return.

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

@SwarajyaMag @bingaspeaks The reality is corruption is at peak and no official work without commission. It’s not bihar fault . It’s from top of the order.
Jaisa Raja waisa Prajya.

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

Worth listening to

[NDTV India @ndtvindia]

बारिश को नहीं झेल पाई Pune Metro, कोच में टपकने लगा पानी, जलभराव की बन गई स्थिति

#PuneMetro

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

@IndianTechGuide It should start with Govt first.
- Travel from local transport.
- Cut the vehicle count in convey
- cut the freebies
- cut the private jet travel
ans so on so

[NDTV @ndtv]

3-Year-Old Girl Raped By School Staff In Delhi; Accused Granted Bail
https://t.co/lFRpVO5mUc

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

On point https://t.co/7q7uIKXlAA

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

@theskindoctor13 Some day back ED raid on lovely professional so was obvious for Ashok Mittal

[FirstBiharJharkhand @firstbiharnews]

पटना NEET छात्रा मौत मामला: हॉस्टल मालिक मनीष रंजन को मिली बेल, कोर्ट में चार्जशीट दाखिल नहीं कर सकी CBI
https://t.co/m56vCtfvae

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

@IndianTechGuide Assembled not made

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

Planning to buy health insurance . Currently in patna. Who can help here? @Atulsingh_asan . Contacted @BeshakIN and they suggested hdfc, icici and tata aia medicare select.

[Markets by Zerodha @zerodhamarkets]

We cover this and one more interesting story in today’s edition of The Daily Brief. Read on Substack, watch on YouTube, or listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts; just search for “The Daily Brief by Zerodha.”

[Ankit @iak_ankit]

@BeshakIN Your advisor say we won’t suggest and advice active one max